A Surprising Rift, NATO Breaks With Zelensky, Attempts to Sweep Polish Farmer Incident Under the Rug
On November 15th, Russia launched a massive wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure across the country in what has become Modus Operandi.
Over 100 sites were hit, but one particular impact will dwarf the rest of them in importance. Boguslaw Wos, 62, and Bogdan Ciupek, 60, were killed when an errant missile landed in the rural village of Przewodów, Poland, about 6km from the Ukrainian border.
For the first few hours after the strike, there was an eerie silence from world leaders, with one notable exception – Volodymyr Zelensky. Immediately, Zelensky and other aspects of the Ukrainian government claimed that the missile was of Russian origin.
At this point in time, keen observers of this war could predict what may come next: a united western response blaming Russia for the strike, likely claiming it to be an accident. It would serve as an example of the horrific quality of Russian equipment and capabilities, a standard western talking point.
The accidental nature of the incident would absolve NATO from invoking Article V.
This did not occur.
It was the Pentagon that broke western silence and claimed that it could not confirm the missile that hit Polish territory was Russian. A Polish investigation published photos of the site and stated that the missile was likely a misfired Ukrainian S-300.
U.S. Defense secretary Lloyd Austin backed the Polish government, “We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defense missile that unfortunately landed in Poland.”
“We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defense missile that unfortunately landed in Poland.”
U.S. Defense secretary Lloyd Austin
Then, in what could be a massive inflection point in the war, came the first real (public) rift between NATO and the Ukrainian government.
Zelensky did not back down, and reaffirmed his assessment that the missile was absolutely not Ukrainian, and must have been of Russian origin. “I have no reason to doubt the evening report by the air force commander, delivered to me personally, as well as to the commander-in-chief, Zaluzhnyi. I have no doubt it was not our missile and not our missile strike.”
The Kremlin, (and other observers, notably China) watched with intrigue and glee at the developing rift in narrative between NATO and Ukraine. Who would Ukrainians believe? Who would ardent Ukrainian supporters across the western world believe?
“I have no reason to doubt the evening report by the air force commander, delivered to me personally, as well as to the commander-in-chief, Zaluzhnyi. I have no doubt it was not our missile and not our missile strike.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
They have never before been put in a situation where they must choose to agree with the Pentagon or Zelensky.
What is certain, is that the three major parties involved – The Russians, The Ukrainians, and NATO – know who fired the missile into Przewodów. We, the public, cannot know what happens behind the scenes, and must speculate.
There are many possible scenarios that one can analyze through a game theory lens.
1. Missile is of Russian Origin and Purposeful
This would be a major success for the Russians, but also a serious escalation if NATO found out the purposeful intentions. Russia will have got away with firm proof that NATO itself, even Poland, does not want to directly partake in this war. It also calls NATO’s bluff as observed by China. If the western public was convinced that this scenario is true, support for Ukraine would rise, especially in Europe.
2. Missile is of Russian Origin and Accidental
“Oops! We found out NATO is not itching for an excuse to send troops into direct hostilities and/or start World War III.” If the western public found out this to be the truth, nothing significant would change, the media already presents Russia as incompetent and buffoonish.
3. Missile is of Ukrainian Origin and Purposeful
A seriously desperate move. It would reveal that Ukraine is clearly feeling the sting of the attacks on its power infrastructure over the past month. A purposeful false flag attack on NATO to try and drag the alliance into the war, would fully reveal how precarious the Ukrainians believe their situation to be. If the western public found out the truth in this hypothetical scenario, support for Ukraine would plummet.
4. Missile is of Ukrainian Origin and Accidental
This is the option with the least implications for escalation or changing policies for either side. It makes the Ukrainians look incompetent to a small degree, but would not have much impact on Western support for Ukraine.
The decision has been made and the narrative has been set. The Kremlin will want to keep this incident in the minds of the public, while NATO will want to sweep it under the rug as fast as possible. NATO wishes to maintain as much credibility as possible but absolutely does not want to enter the war themselves. If the past can be looked at as a precedent, expect few people to remember this incident in 8 months.
After all, how many of us remember the Romanian Mig-21 fighter jet shot down over the black Sea 10 days after the war began on March 3, 2022? The world may not know the full truth about this war until years or decades after it is over.