Asia Times: Why Suu Kyi can’t and won’t democratize Myanmar.

Why Suu Kyi can’t and won’t democratize Myanmar

Is Myanmar headed towards more representative and less military-steered democracy? On February 6, Myanmar’s parliament voted to establish a new preparatory committee to deliberate amending the country’s military-drafted 2008 constitution, which gives the armed forces an outsized “leadership role” in politics.

If you do not understand the fundamentals of Myanmar politics and itsconstitution – then you will never understand why Aung San Suu Kyi do not have real power, and why the Rohingya issue will never be resolved the way you think it should be resolved.

This is an article which I personally had wanted to write about (exactly the same topic). So shall quote some important points from this article.

The constitution stipulates that 25% of the lower and upper houses of parliament’s seats are reserved for military appointees, with the other 75% elected. A proposal to amend the charter only requires the support of 20% of lawmakers to be considered, a hurdle the NLD can easily clear with its majorities in both houses.

But any move to amend the 104 constitutional clauses related to the military’s role and its domination of the nation’s political structure requires 75% of all MPs to support and then must pass a referendum. The 25% bloc of military appointees thus gives the armed forces de facto veto power over any attempt to change crucial clauses.

So in essence, there is almost no chance of National League for Democracy (Aung San Suu Kyi’s party) to change the constitution.

That hold is structurally firm, giving the military much more power than Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government. The military currently appoints the nation’s three most important ministers, namely for defense, home and border affairs. The constitution also gives the commander-in-chief the right to seize power in the case of an emergency, though technically the president must make such a request.

No legal action can be taken against the military for its actions while exercising such emergency powers, according to the constitution as it’s now written.

This also means that, “true power” lies with the military, and not with the civilian government.

The one with the guns are the one calling the shots. Lets say if a military officer is found to be corrupted and to be arrested – the police force also belongs to the military faction – making such enforcement, virtually impossible.

But there is little elected MPs and Suu Kyi’s government can do to roll back the military’s powers apart from the dramatic option of scrapping the charter altogether and adopting a more democratic new one – as suggested by NLD advisor and constitutional expert Ko Ni, who was assassinated in January 2017 in what some suspect was a military plot.

Shredding the constitution would most certainly lead to a risky confrontation with the armed forces, one which the NLD would almost inevitably lose. For now, Suu Kyi and the party appear content to work within the military-dominated system rather than attempting to dismantle it.

If the assassination is done by the military faction, then you can be assured that, it was a warning shot to NLD to keep in line, and not try to test the military’s resolve.

Any attempt to dilute or remove the military power, is likely to result in yet another military coup – pulling Myanmar back into the abyss of military dictatorship – something that neither the people, the military nor Aung San Suu Kyi wants.

Cover Photo: Aung San Suu Kyi (C) and Myanmar Military Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing arrive (R) at Naypyitaw, March 30, 2016. Photo: Reuters/Ye Aung Thu