Beyond the Ukraine Russian Conflict and the Implication and Consequences to Europe.
Current Sitrep
The current Ukraine War has lasted almost 500 days and the end is yet in sight. The Russians are constantly trying to overwhelmed the Ukraine Forces in the Russian quest to “liberate” the Russians in Ukraine. Before the collapse of the U.S.S.R., Ukraine was part of the U.S.S.R., as such, it is no surprise that the Russian would one day reclaim what was “rightfully” theirs to begin with.
The Ukraine has unexpectedly checked the invasion of one of the Superpower’s militaries. Currently, neither the Russians are able to completely take over Ukraine and neither can the Ukraine repel the Russians back to their borders.
Without debating the Sovereignty of Ukraine in the past, or present, the current war is upsetting the Balance of Power in Europe now and in the future.
The West, including NATO, and Americans have voiced their indignation over Russian’s “Special Operations” in to Ukraine. Both NATO and America have sent armaments and aids to support the Ukrainian war efforts short of deploying soldiers to enter the conflict.
The West did not supply Jets and Long Range Weapons capable of deep strike in to Russia. Probably under the assumptions that Ukraine would attack Kremlin, thus, provoking the situation further. The embargoes on Russia are also one of several weapons employed by the West.
Implications
This embargo had limited success as if it was effective, the war would have been ended much earlier. All of Europe are affected by the limited supplies of Gas and Oil from Russian, raising prices in Europe significantly.
With the limited success of oil embargoes on Russia, President Putin is further emboldened to carry on his war due to the support of his countries oil export to India and China. Even the Saudi, traditional allies of the US have not work in tandem with the US to produce more oil. Instead, Saudi choose to cut oil production to raise fuel oil prices further punishing the West. The typical counter balance of Saudis in the Middle East, Iran, has provided drones support to Russia. Subsequently, for the moment, the Americans are out of option with respect to controlling oil prices via controlling supplies in the Middle East.
Sweden and Finland because of the “Special Operation” by Russia fearing facing the same consequences, quickly decided to join NATO. These are traditionally neutral countries with close proximity to Russian Border in the West. Russia using the reasons of invading Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and, thus, becoming a NATO threat to Russia. Unfortunately, this strategy backfired and convince other fence sitting neutral countries to join NATO. These countries on their own devices have not seriously considered joining NATO until the recent invasion.
Despite the clear unprovoked invasion by Russia, noticeably, other than the developed nations, there was barely any strong support for Ukraine in South America and in Asia.
Both, Russia and China are also gambling that the World is not psychologically prepared to wage 2 wars simultaneously on 2 different theaters, with Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan. That is one of the possible reasons that during the Ukraine War, President Putin made great effort in courting China to support Russia.
China, with all the boasting that China and Russia are committed to each other and China being a Superpower on her own rights and merits is more than capable to broker a cease fire between Russia Ukraine. However, the fact of the matter is that despite President Xi Jing Ping’s high profile visit to Russia, China was unable to extract any cease fire among the 2 warring parties. This reflects on the possibilities that, China yet to have sufficient cloud to influence the outcome of the Ukraine War. The other possibility is that President Putin, at this stage, has nothing to show for, and thus, unable to back down or call a halt to the entire operation. Any actions to do so would reflect badly on Putin’s image, honor, creditability and the capabilities of the Russian Military.
Consequences
From this conflict, there arises 3 possible outcomes;
- Total Occupation of Ukraine by Russia
- Ukraine managed to repel the Russian back to their borders prior to
2016 - Limited Russian success in capturing Ukraine Land, before an
Armistice is derived.
Currently, the Russians are trying their best to capture all the Ukraine territories East of the Dnipro River, capitulating Kyiv, before conquering the rest of Ukraine. For the Russian, this was the initial War Plans until President Zelensky put paid to the immediate Russian Plan. For the Total Occupation of Ukraine is still not out of the picture, but, merely delay the inevitable. Russia will pay a very high price for this pyrrhic victory.
President Zelensky, with the support of the West is very confident of winning the War and President Zelensky is confident, Ukrainian troops can successfully repel the Russian invaders back to their borders prior to 2016.
However, Realities dictates that, Russia face overwhelming and daunting task to reach the Dnipro River, let alone breach it. It would be prudent to have a temporary Armistice upon reaching the Dnipro River. This might also be the saving grace for President Putin to announce the overwhelming success of his “Special Operations” and call a halt to this exercise.
President Zelensky without the support of the West to provide Long Range Armament, would be not easy to repel the Russian back to their borders. When the ammunitions, armaments and public opinion dwindling, President Zelensky would have to accept the harsh realities of war. Perhaps, it would also serve as a temporary reprieve for Ukraine, to take a break before the long term goal of recapturing all of their lost territories, measured in decades instead of months
Other than this short term game between Ukraine and Russia, there is another long game being played and to be seriously considered. The emergence of another new Dominant Military country in Europe.
During World War II, the only strong military power in Europe was Germany and Russia. The then Germany harbored expansionist idea to the East and even Russia face difficulties holding the Germans in check. With the defeat of Germany during World War II coupled with collapsed of the U.S.S.R., Germany, together with Britain and France no longer see the need of maintaining such a big military might as before the World Wars. Coupled with many buffer countries separating Europe from Russia, the NATO countries are expected to easily do their part in defending Europe from a severely weakened Russian Bear.
Only Germany under Hitler, had ideas on Ukraine. Only Germany among all the European Nations now would have the capabilities and interest to check the Russians in Ukraine. The Sun has already set for the Pax Britannica. After the series of events from World War I till the recent Brexit, the British has lost all their power and abilities to balance the power in Europe.
Traditionally, both the US and British have heavily relied on each other to maintain Equilibrium of power in Europe. With the atrophy of British military power and influence, it has created a power vacuum in Europe. The likely outcome of this Ukraine conflict is the creation and emergence of another large dominant military influence by Ukraine, other than Germany. This will be the beginning of the tipping of the Balance of Power in Europe.
This is leading towards the redrawing of the European Order and Power. Europe has always been the backyard of the British and the Americans should only rely on the balance of power to exert influence on Europe. Would the Ukrainians replace the British and Germany as America’s next most dominant military ally in Europe is yet to be seen. The provoking questions is will Ukrainian allow themselves to act as the counter balancing force not just in East Europe, but, for the entire Europe. Will the outcome be similar to American’s involvement with Colonel Gadaffi and President Saddam Hussein, are reasons for concern
Currently, the Americans are still reeling from the “Forever Wars’ and are hesitant about putting “Boots in the Ground” in Ukraine. The Popularity of supporting the Ukraine War has already peaked and slowly retreated. In addition, with the upcoming US. Presidential Election in 2024, the next President may not be
supportive of the Ukraine War.
If the Americans decides to deploy soldiers in Ukraine, the outcome would be very similar to the Korean Peninsular during the 1950’s and also the Vietnam and Iraqi War. Unless the American themselves are willing to assimilate Ukraine as the 51 st State of the United States of America, American troops can only serve as a temporary measure until the eventual pull out. With no vested interest in Ukraine, any US President would be hard press for reasons of maintaining a big number of troops in Ukraine over extended period of time. The Americans do not and should not have any obligations to any countries to maintain peace in Europe. Peace in Europe must be policed by the European themselves, with a balance of Power to check each other.
All these factors do not bode well for President Zelensky to fight a long war. To put “Boots on the Ground” entails massive military spending and lives. The lessons from, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan are constantly being replayed. The US have no inherent interest in Ukraine other than the tipping of the Balance of Power in Europe.
Alternative
There is another alternative to all these situations in the form of a limited war with specific objectives. First it should not be a mutually exclusive war. For a start, the Allies should not allow any incursion past the West of the Dnipro River. The replacement of the head of state, will not solve the problems. Iraq is a perfect example, even satisfying the overall War Objective of removing Saddam, the country still eventually spiral out of control and the Americans was still forced to leave Iraq. Another Example was also the American’s involvement in Afghanistan, the “Forever Wars”.
With a limited War, the US should aim for the reinstatement of the balance of power in Europe with the relevant check and balance against both Ukraine and Russia. Currently, the only viable American Ally which can provide a balance in Europe is Germany. Germany should be strongly encouraged to commit more troops and equipment in and around Ukraine. To help convince the Russian to stop at the Dnipro River, without committing troops to Ukraine, NATO should consider another big scale, REFORGER exercise either in Poland, Finland or Germany. By amassing large amount of troops North of Ukraine, would compel the Russian to refrain from a full scale frontal assault on Ukraine.
Conclusions
Sadly, the best outcome for the Americans is a long drawn out War, with no progress from either Warring Parties while waiting for the British to rebuild their sphere of influence again.
If the Germans does stand up and eventually put troops in Ukraine, would the future situation turn back to history where both the Germans and Russia have the strongest military. From these lessons, after 30 years, are the American’s raising another wolf in their own backyard by supporting Ukraine or Germany. Whatever the case, without a strong military ally capable of balancing the Power in Europe, Europe
would be prone to any Strong Military Country with Expansionist ideas.
In this conflict, only the Russians can call an end to this War. For the Russian to do so, there must be some face saving grace for the leaders in Kremlin. That red line would be the River of Dnipro slicing one third of Ukraine. The River of Dnipro would be the equivalent of the 38 th parallel in Ukraine. President Zelensky with his current arsenal and support would not swallow this. However, given time, and the slow depletion of arms, ammunition and international support, President Zelensky may be compelled to accept these realities for the moment. Similarly, for President Putin, pushing westward may see diminishing margins of return and just like
President Zelensky, Kremlin may consider for the time being stopping at the River Dnipro.