Copying the 2014 Thailand coup d’etat, Myanmar military coup leader, Min Aung Hlaing declares himself Prime Minister, reneging on his 1 year election promise

In a dramatic, yet unsurprising, turn of event, the Tatmadaw leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing declared himself the Prime Minister in a speech broadcasted on national tv on Sunday, reneging on his 1 year election promise – extending it by 2 years till August 2023.

The State Aministration Council (SAC) will now be replaced by a “caretaker government / provisional government”, resembling the Thai military coup-transition from “council” (National Council for Peace and Order) led by Royal Thai Army commander, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, to Prime Minister-ship (in which it took only 3 months for Prayut to be appointed Prime Minister – the coup happened on 22 May 2014, and he is declared Prime Minister on the 24 August 2014).

IF the Min Aung Hlaing and his fellow leaders intention is to follow in the 2014 Thailand coup d’état footsteps, it is unlikely that we will see Myanmar holding an election 2 years from now. Prayut held election (and subsequently won the election) in July 2019, 5 years after his military coup against the government led by Yingluck Shinawatra, during the ensuing chaos on the wake of the decision by the Constitutional Court to remove Yingluck and 9 other senior ministers from office.

Which practically speaking, given the lack of a monarchy as a moral/ethical oversight on Min Aung Hlaing’s “caretaker government”, 5 years would probably be just the minimum length of time we shall see the new self-appoint Prime Minister be helming Myanmar… dragging the saga all the way to at least August 2026. As mentioned, the lack of a figurehead in Myanmar to rally around and for the Senior General to bow his head to, which means that, he could very well go way beyond the 5 years coup managed by their Thai counterpart.

Since the chances of Min Aung Hlaing winning any election in Myanmar dimmer than a candle light 10 miles away in the middle of a fog, we are unlikely going to see Min Aung Hlaing replicating what was achieved by General Prayut in Thailand to become a legitimately elected Prime Minister Prayut while risking another 2015 Myanmar General Election humiliating result, that Thein Sein, leader of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USPD) had suffered; a stark reminder of the will of the people after supposedly won nearly 80% of the seats in the prior 2010 Myanmar general elections – one that is widely criticised as a farce election; boycotted by the Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democray (NLD) that won 86% of the seats in 2015.

It is thus of my opinion that there is no reason to believe Min Aung Hlaing’s words after he had already reneged on his one year promise, to only fulfill his 2 years promise later. Given the doubling down of violence, coercion and crackdown by the military junta on the largely rebellious civilian population over the past half a year, it is very unlikely that the military junta will give up power anytime soon before they can fully secure the country under their control and prevent any future events that could try to seek “justice” against the military personnel and leaders through any “legal” means.