Haaretz: Assad Preparing to Retake Southwest Syria
Israel will likely try to make the regime’s return to the border region contingent on an agreement to remove Iranian forces and the Shi’ite militias from the area
Original Article: Assad Preparing to Retake Southwest Syria and Israel Will Have to Decide Whether to Intervene
The focus of this snapshot will be on the geopolitical side of the issue: mainly to do with what Israel want, and can do.
Moscow wants an agreement under which some of the rebels would voluntarily evacuate parts of the south and be replaced by Assad’s forces. (Assad would also commit to removing Iranian troops and Shi’ite militias from those areas.) It also wants America to abandon the Al-Tanf base near the Iraqi border, which the Trump administration has so far refused to do.
The latest military moves in southern Syria can thus be seen more as warm-up acts and declarations of intent than as a large-scale military offensive.
Israel, meanwhile, has its own interests: thwarting arms smuggling to Hezbollah and continuing to act against Iran’s military presence in Syria.
Russia as usual, is trying very hard to de-escalate the war in Syria, while Syria is slowly trying to conquer back all their lost territories. USA on the other hand had been a lot a lot less confrontational and warlike as opposed to the time under Obama’s administration. But Trump does not want to throw away their cards easily and prematurely – as typical of Trump, to keep all options open until he get his “victory”.
Israel’s constant military strikes in Syria against Iranian elements are well reported, and had said to be (in other sources) really struggling to keep up their presence.
Israel wants stability on its border. It has also frequently denounced the Assad regime for slaughtering its own citizens and using chemical weapons. But would it necessarily oppose the Syrian Army’s return to its border in the Golan Heights, if the Iranians were removed from the area at the same time?
Israel’s primary interest in Syria, is the removal of Iranian forces. They do not fear Assad’s Syria (even before the Syrian civil war started), and would probably not oppose Syria retaking of all the territory up to their current borders – as long as Syria can guarantee Iranian elements are expelled.
Syria is unlikely to “test” Israel by leaving the Iranian within their borders, near Israel, as Israel will almost definitely invade Syria to remove the Iranians – causing an escalation of warfare – that Syria is trying very hard to methodologically end. Neither would Syria’s military forces able to hold their ground against a fresh and technologically more advanced Israeli military.
In internal discussions, some defense officials, including officers in the army’s Northern Command, have said Israel has a humanitarian obligation to residents of these border villages.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine that the public would support risking Israeli soldiers’ lives to save Arab citizens of an enemy country. It’s more likely that Israel won’t intervene directly in the fighting, but will try to make the regime’s return to the border region contingent on an agreement to remove Iranian forces and the Shi’ite militias from it.
Which I agree.
But the article mentioned about Druze peope, a religious group that is distinct from Islam or Judaism, is being caught in a dilemma for their lack of allegiance to the Syria government.
JALAA MAREY/AFP, from Haaretz
Throughout more than seven years of war, the Syrian Druze have largely managed to stay out of the conflict, though in some areas they cooperated with the regime.
The city of Sweida, in the heart of the Jabal Druze region, is near the area from which the regime plans to launch its assault on Daraa. Some 50,000 Druze residents in the region have evaded the Syrian draft and are considered deserters, but so far the regime has chosen not to confront them.
But last week, Israeli Druze say, two Russian generals came to Sweida and demanded that local leaders provide tens of thousands of Druze soldiers for the regime’s offensive. The generals threatened that if they refuse, the regime will consider Sweida a hostile area and treat its residents as terrorists. The Druze fear that Assad seeks to give this final stage of the conflict religious overtones by setting the Druze against their Sunni neighbors.
The tension in Jabal Druze also affects the Druze in the Syrian Golan. The Druze village of Khader, in the northern Golan, is very close to the front line between the regime and the rebels. It has maintained contact with the regime for years and sometimes even directly confronted Sunni militias opposing Assad.
The article continues to mention how it is impossible for Israel to turn a blind eye to what is happening on the Syrian side of the border as the Druze people of both sides are kins and feel that their fates are intertwined.
Last November, as Israel turned a blind eye, Sunni militiamen neared Khader. Their goal was to oust regime soldiers from a neighboring area, but somehow mortar shells also fell in Khader itself.
Israeli Druze raised an outcry, fearing their brothers over the border would be slaughtered. “When that gang tells you they’re stopping for a five-minute coffee break near Khader, there’s a good chance it’ll end like Sabra and Chatila,” one source said, referring to the Beirut refugee camps where Lebanese Christian militias massacred Palestinian civilians in 1982.
Israel woke up quickly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned off the rebels, and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman ordered the Israel Defense Forces to move tanks closer to the border.
Then, the rebels were deterred. But now, the Druze in Khader may once again be caught up in the battle between the regime and the rebels, should large-scale fighting resume in this area.
Israel will be ill-afforded to allow rebels to continue to operate in the South-west region of Syria and deny Syrian government forces from retaking the area.
Original Article: Assad Preparing to Retake Southwest Syria and Israel Will Have to Decide Whether to Intervene