Kim-Trump Summit: What if it fails
While it is in my view that this Kim-Trump talks will be nothing less than a success, there is no absolute in this world
If you had read my previous article on Kim Jong-Un: The Age Of Kim Jong-Un And His Secret Agenda, I have put on a relatively strong case as to why this upcoming meeting between US President Donald J Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un, would be nothing but a raving success.
But let’s take a different perspective – let’s say the talks failed – for whatever the reason: what is likely to happen? What would be the geopolitical situation and positioning?
A NORTH KOREA SHRIEK
First off the bat, would be the immediate halt to any decision by North Korea to destroy their nuclear capability. The number one priority of an extremely real-politicking North Korea is to strengthen their military deterrence. Missile tests may resume within a month in a show of force, while they will take good measures to ensure that their nuclear weapons will not be taken out in a pre-emptive strike by US-led forces.
If the summit is a failure of epic proportions, then we might see North Korea rebuild a new nuclear facility as well, to replace the one that had expired beyond it’s use by date.
BUT NO WAR
But no, I’m not saying there will be war – the likelihood of war is actually as distant as it had been for the past 50 years – I do not think that will change. Both North Korea and South Korea do not have the appetite for war – nor are both Korean states are not willing to become the pawns in another proxy war where the biggest casualties will be the Koreans people.
THE SOUTH KOREAN PLASTER
South Korea is likely to go on a charm offensive, like they had done over the past month, to placate the North to ensure they do not stray too far away from the negotiating table. Although this may not necessarily be good for their internal politics, as pandering to the North is not exactly smart politics.
In the event of a catastrophic failure in the talks, I would still expect South Korea to keep North Korea on talking terms with themselves. Thus in a way, South Korea may continue their “friendly” relationship with the North, as much as they can, while baying for another moment in time where the time is ripe for yet another US-North Korean summit.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
In the United States, Trump will have no choice but to continue his policy of maximum pressure and may concede to the Democratic Party’s call to expand the sanctions further (which in my opinion is sort of weird… how much more sanctions can you go before you are actually starving the North Korean people themselves?). However, this situation would not be ideal for Trump.
Donald Trump did not take the decision to meet the North Korea leader in person lightly. If he does not have an assured “victory” to bring home to the USA to gloat about to his hostile media circus, and the opportunity to give another political slap to his predecessor’s failure to make good of his Nobel prize – he would not have agreed on this, less than a year after he promises to bring “fire and fury” to North Korea. For him to even agree to this historical summit, represents a really favorable proposal/arrangement by the North Korean that would result in a win-win situation that Trump can use greatly to his advantage.
However, if the talk went awry, the consequences would be pretty problematic for Trump – as it would be an upset to what had been a pretty good year thus far: where everything had been moving pretty well in his favor.
CHINA VICTORY
The failure of the talk would have direct impact on the trade negotiations with China, as Trump had been pressuring China across multiple geopolitical spectrums, with the successful North Korea engagements being one of them. China would be buoy by the “victory” of the failure between North Korea and USA to make an agreement, thus signaling the moment for China to put on more political pressure on Trump for concession in the trade negotiations and in the South China Sea issues. Although it is still in my opinion that China could not “win” the trade negotiations, despite this hypothetical advantage of shifting momentum.
Photo Source: CNN / KCNA
China-North Korean relations would, however, take a turn to the positive, depends on how bad the meeting went, North Korea will have no option but to return to the warm but bone-crushing embrace of their massive communist comrade. China will take the advantage to hijack the leading role from the United States, in the attempt to denuclearise the Korean peninsula, while offering the economic and trading advantage that North Korea is seeking via the summit with the United States and South Korea. China is also likely to veto any further punitive measures against North Korea, in a show of solidarity with their “new again BFF”.
IN SUMMARY
So it largely depends on how bad is the failure; we may see North Korea and the United States giving it another try, probably meeting one another in 3 months’ time or 6 months’ time – to remedy the differences found during the Singapore Summit… or the failure in talks could be so bad that it will require South Korea’s intervention to bring the 2 sides back to the negotiating table.
For China, any form of failure would be a boon to their strategic interest. We would see China trying to influence North Korea to look north instead for their economic and trading needs, to dilute the need for North Korea to make peace with the United States, or for China to even put an arm around the shoulders of their North Korea “brother” in the event where the summit is an epic failure (leading the geopolitical situation back to where we started a year ago)
Cover Photo Source: Intellasia.net / CNN / Getty Images