Polisario Congress and Moroccan strikes, the fight intensifies once again
The Polisario congress recently took place amidst a variety of challenges, including actions by Morocco, boycotts by both local and international groups, and a decline in support for the current leader, Brahim Ghali. In this article, we will examine the events that occurred during the congress, its outcomes, and the subsequent actions taken. The congress was impacted by political factors such as loss of support, boycotts, formation of opposition against Ghali, and the absence of key representatives who have resigned.
One notable example of a boycott is that of the Socialist Party of Spain, led by Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister. The party’s decision to boycott the congress is based on the belief that the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco is the most viable solution to the conflict. As a result of this stance, main support for the Polisario has significantly dropped and is considered to be final and irreversible.
An opposition entity, which calls itself “opposition,” has emerged in the Tindouf camps. This is not the first time that the Tindouf camps have seen the formation of opposition groups, which are generally tolerated by the Polisario leadership and Algeria as long as they do not challenge established boundaries set by the two allies. The new entity, announced at the beginning of the year, follows this pattern.
In May, the “Revolutionary Recovery Group” was formed with the goal of providing an alternative to Brahim Ghali. Ghali aims to prioritize the common enemy, Morocco, and silence opposition movements. The congress has not yet begun and major differences have already arisen, leading to the extension of the Dakhla congress. During the congress, Bachir Mustafa Sayed, brother of the founder of Polisario, applied to run against Ghali, but it is unclear if the opposition will hold positions. Additionally, it is unclear whether the opposition’s decision to not hold positions is due to possible interaction on the part of Algeria or if it is based on false information.
During the congress, it was reported that former representative of the Polisario abroad, Oubi Bachir Bouchraya, had resigned from his position and indicated that he supported the candidacy of Bachir Mustapha Sayed.
At the heart of the debate during the congress was the ongoing conflict with Morocco. Moroccan actions had intensified, and during the organization of the congress, Moroccan forces used unmanned planes to kill two members of the Polisario in Tifariti. This had the effect of preventing the Polisario from highlighting any military successes on the battlefield. As a reminder, in November, a Moroccan drone had disrupted the commemoration by the Polisario of the 2nd anniversary of the launch of its “war” against Morocco.
A media outlet close to the Polisario acknowledges the drone strikes but claims that the victims were “Sahrawi civilians” who were traveling in their vehicles in the “liberated territory of Tifariti”. However, after the operation to liberate the passage of El Guerguerate on November 13, 2020, the Polisario completely lost control over its “liberated territories” including Bir Lahlou, its self-proclaimed “capital”. Since then, it has not organized any meetings, congresses, or military parades. This same media outlet close to the Polisario revealed in October 2021, that about 5,000 people who previously resided in these areas have been displaced to the Tindouf camp.
In the current political context, participants at the 16th congress of the Polisario Front, held in the Tindouf camps, voted to increase the armed struggle against Morocco. The approved national action plan emphasizes the importance of armed struggle as a means of defending the rights of the Sahrawi people and reclaiming sovereignty over their land. Despite the agreement on future military actions, the congress was extended by two days due to a lack of consensus among the over 2,300 delegates regarding the re-election of Brahim Ghali.
Currently, it is possible that Algeria may intervene in the event of active conflict and intense operations in the region. The President of Algeria, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, has expressed support for the struggle of the Sahrawi people for self-determination. However, as tensions continue to escalate, it is possible that Algeria may provide further support to Polisario forces. On the Moroccan side, a response is expected rather than any offensives. Morocco’s military doctrine, established in the 1990s, involves maintaining a distance with the use of drones, aerial missions, artillery strikes, and potentially mobile operations to regain control of key areas such as Guerguerat and Lagouira.
The Polisario congress has highlighted the limitations of its political unity, characterized by divergences, opposition, questionable stability, and outside influence. The congress also revealed a clear dependence on the Algerian state. Additionally, the congress had to contend with military losses and the diminishing value of military communiques issued by the “Saharaui Liberation Army” which claim victory or successful bombardments against the Moroccan Army, despite the fact that these claims are not credible.
This denial of the dire situation is evidenced by the fact that while around 80 countries recognized the independent Sahara at the time of the Polisario movement’s creation, now, out of these 80 countries, 40 have either frozen or withdrawn their recognition. Furthermore, the number of countries supporting Morocco continues to grow each year.
In conclusion, it is likely to be a difficult year for the Polisario, and a possible change in leadership may lead to negotiations with the Moroccan Kingdom and the Algerian Republic. However, it is also possible that the opposite may happen and the region may experience a resumption of the war that occurred from 1970 to the 90s.