Prime Ministerial race to divide the PAP?
The race to Prime Minister-ship is down to just 2 man
This is an essay that had been circulating around in the social media as well as in private networks like Whatsapp, which a quick research had shown that it is first published by State Times Review (source: http://statestimesreview.com/2018/01/03/source-chan-chun-sing-leading-the-pm-race-over-heng-swee-keat/)
According to a source close with the ruling party PAP, a fierce behind-closed-doors infighting is the real reason why the next Prime Minister is not yet decided. Two of the three front runners, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat and Minister of State Chan Chun Sing refused to give up their bids for the next PM post, while Education Minister Ong Ye Kung is just a distraction added by the state media to cover up the intense infighting between the two.
A key reason infighting between the 2 Ministers is over Minister Chan Chun Sing’s military profile. Most PAP cadres prefer Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat to be the next Prime Minister due to his better credentials over Chan Chun Sing, but PM Lee Hsien Loong personally prefers Minister Chan Chun Sing. Many PAP members object to Chan Chun Sing because they are worried that the country may be perceived as a military junta, considering the number of army generals holding key appointments like Education Minister Ng Chee Meng and Speaker Tan Chuan Jin.
Chan Chun Sing is Lee Hsien Loong’s favourite as Minister Heng Swee Keat does not agree as readily as the military yes-man. During Cabinet meetings, the Finance Minister has expressed reservations over “mega-projects” costing billions in spendings like Project Jewel and Airport Terminal 5 – dampening the mood of the dictator Prime Minister. Minister Heng Swee Keat also did not “perform” as well as Minister Chan Chun Sing, when the latter poured praises for the Prime Minister during the earlier Oxley Road saga saying “this shows nobody is above the law”. Minister Heng Swee Keat merely commented “let’s go back to serving the people”, much to the disapproval of Lee Hsien Loong.
Lee Hsien Loong is also worried that Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat may dismantle his Lee family’s legacy and not pave the way for his son Li Hongyi, who is currently a director with the propaganda ministry, Ministry of Communications and Information. Minister Chan Chun Sing, who used to serve Lee Kuan Yew in the same constituency, is “more loyal” compared to Heng Swee Keat.
According to state media, the next PM should be announced by September this year 2018.
So while of course the above essay is highly speculative and dramatic, the key take away that the race had basically reduced to just 2 man is highly plausible.
Chan Chun Sing with the late Lee Kuan Yew during the General Elections in 2011.
Photo from Today.
Chan Chun Sing had commonly been seen as the preferred candidate by PM Lee Hsien Loong, thus speculated by many to be the front runner to the PM seat (regardless of the same assertion by the essay above). A high flyer in the Singapore military, he was given a lot of guidance and opportunity to grow very quickly within the cabinet and is now heading the powerful NTUC (National Trade Union Congress – the only “Union” approved by the government) as the Secretary-General. He is also known for his background of humble roots, that through hard work, he become a scholar and is seen as a shining success story of Singapore meritocratic model.
Heng Swee Keat.
Photo from Channel News Asia.
His main competitor is the highly capable Finance Minister, Heng Swee Keat. As the Principal Private Secretary to the late former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew (who was then Senior Minister) from 1997 – 2001, he was one of the very few in the current leadership that had actually “tutored” by Lee Kuan Yew. This stint under Lee Kuan Yew probably had given him a perspective and wisdom towards the governing of Singapore, unlike anyone else had experienced and understand (with exception to Lee Hsien Loong of course).
So while the essay was typical of anti-establishment style of writing – trying to incite emotions and discord, the essence of the 2 horse race seemed to be proven to be authentic when the “3rd horse”, Ong Ye Kung, sort of ruled himself out during an interview with the Straits Times (source: http://www.straitstimes.com/politics/4g-ministers-say-they-will-settle-on-a-leader-in-good-time-ong-ye-kung-says-he-has-someone)
“I am shaping up in my mind someone who can be the leader amongst us. I am sure my colleagues are thinking of the same issue too.”
When asked how he decided on the person he intends to support, Mr Ong said he had taken into account the person’s conviction and ability to drive long-term, important policy, as well as public and party support for the person.
It is noted by a CNN piece, that this leadership succession is “in disarray” (source: https://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/13/opinions/singapore-presidential-succession/index.html), as compared to previous leadership succession, the subsequent prime ministers are decided early and are given ample time to learn the trade. Lee Hsien Loong was Deputy Prime Minister for 14 years, while Goh Chok Tong was the 1st Deputy Prime Minister for 5 years before being selected by his peers to be the Prime Minister.
The next General Election is due January 2021, and there is no indication if PM Lee Hsien Loong will continue to be Prime Minister for another term or will he step down.
“I am ready,” said Lee, when asked if he was prepared to step down in the next couple of years. But he said he needed to make sure there was a successor ready to take over, adding: “there are people in the wings. The question is, who it will be and that will need to be decided.”
If the “next couple of years” means the next General Election, which will mean that the next Prime Minister would have had the lesser time to prepare for the role as compared to Lee Hsien Loong himself and Goh Chok Tong.
The biggest concern now is, not really who will be the Prime Minister, but whether the Prime Ministerial race would actually create a rift or divide within the ruling party. According to ESM Goh Chok Tong, it should’nt:
He reinforced the common response by the “4th generation leaders” that, it is about working as a team and team work that is of the most importance – and that the selection of the next Prime Minister, is to be made by this 4th generation group leaders. But the amount of time they are taking and dragging, to the point where ESM Goh Chok Tong had to post on facebook to elicit a response from them to quickly decide who will lead, shows that there is indeed fierce competition for the post, between at least 2 individuals.
Contrasting Ong Ye Kung’s comment to Heng Swee Keat’s and Chan Chun Sing’s, you would see the contrast and add further indications that the it is the latter two that are competing for the position.
Heng Swee Keat:
Giving his first remarks on the leadership succession that has been hotly discussed recently, Mr Heng said: “It is a team of serious-minded people who are trying to do their best and I really enjoy working with everyone in the team. And I would say it’s not just the 4G team, in fact, it’s the entire Cabinet.”
“PM sets a very good example and it is a team that is very cohesive. We discuss issues every week across a whole range of subjects – from security to social care, healthcare, to education, to the economy,” he added.
“But the one thing which I feel we have to deal with in the coming years is the growing complexity … in governing Singapore, in having an agreement on what matters to us as a country and the growing complexity in the external environment.”
As you can see, no dismissal of himself in the running for the PM-ship.
Chan Chun Sing:
“Ultimately, people and government must work together to keep Singapore successful,” he told the 90 people at the event organised by the Oxford and Cambridge Society of Singapore.
Mr Chan noted that “trust” was described by the late founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew as his team’s “greatest asset”.
It allowed the pioneer generation of leaders to be effective and not shy away from making difficult but necessary decisions, such as introducing mandatory national service when the country needed to build a defence force.
Mr Chan listed three things that leaders must do to build trust with their people.
Source: http://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/leaders-must-be-upfront-people-says-minister-chan-chun-sing
And the article went all to talk about the 3 things, but nothing that is dismissing of his running for the post.
So again, contrasting it with Ong Ye Kung’s again:
Education Minister (Higher Education and Skills) Ong Ye Kung said in an interview with The Straits Times earlier this week: “I am shaping up in my mind someone who can be the leader amongst us. I am sure my colleagues are thinking of the same issue too.”
He declined to name the person he had in mind. On whether the ministers can pick themselves, he said “that doesn’t sound like it is in the right spirit”, adding that he did not know what the convention was as it is his first time taking part in the process.
So it is clearly between just 2 person now: Heng Swee Keat vs Chan Chun Sing.
And Goh Chok Tong coming in to urge the “leadership to quickly make a decision by end of 2018” – its probably more like an urge for the 2 to resolve their differences and decide who should take a step backward for the other “better man”. The key problem however, is like because both of them is currently just as keen for the Prime Minister role and both are unwilling to give in.
The final decision could likely be decided by a vote among the “4th generation leaders” (the list of the 19 of them below) and barring an intervention by PM Lee Hsien Loong to influence the decision. The longer this takes to resolve, the more likely that the “support” for one of the 2 candidates may get entrenched, spelling rivalries and potential conflict in the future.
Thus, for the good of the country, Goh Chok Tong is indeed correct in his assertion that this leadership issue need to be resolved as soon as possible.
4th Generation Leaders:
Chan Chun Sing, 48
Minister in Prime Minister’s Office and the Secretary-General of the National Trades Union Congress
Heng Swee Keat, 56
Minister for Finance
Ong Ye Kung, 48
Minister for Education and Second Minister for the Ministry of Defence
Chee Hong Tat, 44
Senior Minister of State for Communication and Information and Health
Grace Fu, 53
Minister for Culture, Community and Youth
Koh Poh Koon, 45
Senior Minister of State for Trade and Industry and National Development
Desmond Lee, 41
Minister for Social and Family ;
Masagos Zulkifli, 54
Minister for Environment and Water Resources
Ng Chee Meng, 49
Minister for Education (Schools)
Janil Puthucheary, 45
Senior Minister of State for Communications and Information and Education
Indranee Rajah, 54
Senior Minister of State for Finance and Law
S. Iswaran, 55
Minister for Trade and Industry (Industry)
Sim Ann, 42
Senior Minister of State for Culture, Community and Youth and Trade and Industry
Tan Chuan-Jin, 48
Speaker of Parliament
Josephine Teo, 49
Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office
Lawrence Wong, 45
Minister for National Development
(Featured Image of Heng Swee Keat & Chan Chun Sing, from The Straits Times)