Putin’s Path to Victory Against the West.

Putin has a clear path to defeating the West.
Russia and NATO cannot resolve their conflict by war in a nuclear world. Instead, Putin will leverage the threat of humanitarian disaster caused by the war in Ukraine and the looming world economic recession.

Victory for Putin means holding onto some of his gains in Ukraine while escaping political and economic isolation. Such a victory will mean that Putin has defeated those calling for Russian regime change. It will also give him renewed stature among his anti-western allies.

Donetsk Offensive
Putin cannot maintain his political position if he has nothing to show for his invasion of Ukraine. He must hang onto some of the territories he seized after February 2022. Russian forces need to expand their gains around Donetsk City to create greater security for the city from shelling. Beyond this, more territorial expansion is not vital.

The Russian military should therefore concentrate everything on the offensive in Donetsk over the next month or so and then try to pause the conflict. The destruction of power infrastructure in Ukraine will give Putin maximum leverage as Winter sets in.

Humanitarian Truce
Putin can only get NATO and Zelensky to agree to a ‘temporary’ truce if he presents it in humanitarian terms. An appeal to humanitarianism is a way all sides can agree to a ceasefire without being humiliated. The other side will never agree to Russia’s annexations.

Putin needs to get slightly less hostile countries, such as Turkey and Germany, to influence NATO to agree to the proposal. NATO can then pressure Zelensky to accept it.

Russia must put its side of the story publicly in truce negotiations. Russia needs to highlight how civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk were killed by Ukrainian shelling before February 2022. Ukraine also targeted water supplies to these two regions as well as Crimean water supplies in the same period. Russia can argue that its own targeting of infrastructure in Ukraine is simply a response to this.

WASH Cluster: Flash Update on WASH situation in the Donetsk Oblast, 27/02/2022 – Ukraine

This is a stockpile and update on the main incidents related to water access, in the Donetsk Oblast, up to 26/02/2022. Note that due to the current limited access to information from the ground, this report is not comprehensive. 17/02 – a 35 kV powerline was damaged by heavy shelling, near Mayorsk.

Crimea ‘water war’ opens new front in Russia-Ukraine conflict

When a cyclone drenched Crimea in rainfall last month, rivers burst their banks and thousands of people in the Russia-annexed peninsula had to be evacuated from the floods.

Russia must argue for an agreement to end both sides’ targeting of civilians and vital services. This will make the pause look less of an attempt by Russia to blackmail Ukraine into surrender by targeting civilians.

Winter 2023/24 and After
Unlike Ukraine, Europe is likely to survive this Winter despite the Russian gas cut-off. According to the International Energy Authority, however, next Winter- 2023-24-will be much harder for Europe. There will be a big shortfall in the gas needed in Summer 2023 to fill storage facilities to prepare for Winter 2023-4.

Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter – Analysis – IEA

Russia’s natural gas deliveries to the European Union by pipeline halved in the first ten months of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021, a drop of 60 billion cubic metres (bcm). For the full year, Russia’s pipeline supplies are expected to decline by over 55%, a drop of 80 bcm, putting unprecedented pressure on both European and global gas markets.

The shortages are likely to continue over the Winter of 2024-2025, only getting resolved in 2026:

Rebalancing Europe’s gas supply: opportunities in a new era – IOGP Europe

IOGP Europe and the American Petroleum Institute (API) have mobilized their industry’s knowledge and asked Rystad Energy to explore this question in detail in new research. This unique study builds on insights from the full gas value chain, thanks to the technical input from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

Europe will have enormous problems with huge price increases and expanding budget deficits as governments protect their citizens from rising fuel prices. The situation will give Putin an opportunity to get slightly less hostile countries like Italy and Germany to weaken.

He can try to get some sanctions lifted in return for offering short-term relief from the energy crisis with Russian gas supplies. The time for Putin to act will be late 2023 when Europeans are suffering one awful Winter and facing the prospect of another one.

Europe faces long-term economic stagnation. There are still large amounts of debt to pay off. Protectionist pressure will make it hard to keep prices low, which will make future expansionary economic policies harder.

Unlike the 1930s Depression, there can be no world war to get everyone back into work in war industries. So there can be no rerun of the postwar western economic boom either. Unemployment and protectionism will continue their mutually destructive relationship for a long-time to come.

Europe faces long-term economic stagnation. There are still large amounts of debt to pay off.

High unemployment will likely lead to a new generation of populist leaders in Europe and a slightly less hostile Republican US President. Putin will need to play liberal and populist governments against each other to prevent renewed efforts to isolate Russia. He can then keep Russia in the global economy and secure its place in the world order.