Reality’s Revenge in Ukraine – Why the Lacklustre Ukrainian Counteroffensive is a Global Threat to the US

By Oleg Yanovsky | August 20, 2023

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands during a joint a press-conference, following their meeting in Kyiv on 20 April 2023. Photo: Nurphoto / Getty Images / Huffington Post

Anthony Blinken recently summed up why NATO continues to place all bets on Ukraine. If the ‘Rules-Based Order’ loses in Ukraine, then Russia will open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of other challengers across the globe.[1] However, it seems that the box is already sliding open despite NATO’s no-holds barred approach to Ukraine. The sliding towards a new order in the world will only accelerate, unless Ukraine scores an undeniable victory on the front.

The reasons for this are threefold, namely, Russia showed that NATO is not unstoppable, the West is losing trust, and non-aligned states are ‘hedging bets’ by flocking to new loci of power, away from Western-dominated institutions. Thus, the performance of Russia’s military in the past two months has dealt a wound yet unprecedented to the ‘Rules-Based Order’.

Destroyed Leopard tank, Bradleys and other armored vehicles. Photo: Warrior DV / TheDrive

Aftermath of a failed Ukrainian attack during the “Ukrainian Counteroffensive”. Photo: t.me/ok_spn

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been a narrative trap of its own making. For several months prior to a remake of the Charge of the Light Brigade NATO leaders were amping up the narrative. As early as June US press was already issuing warnings that Ukraine was facing an uphill battle not with just Russia but high expectations.[2] Yet, Leopard tanks were still supposed to be ‘the game-changer’.[3] NAFO meme efforts hyped up the impending counteroffensive as much as possible. However, two months into the charge and NATO exchanged hundreds of vehicles, including the lauded Leos for a handful of villages in the ‘grey zone’ along the front line.

Russia’s agile defensive strategy, the combination of kamikaze drones and Ka-52 close air support proved lethal for loosely protected Ukrainian columns.[4] Bewildering videos of Ukrainian armour eating up minefields by rolling through them now pepper the internet.[5] At the same time, Russia’s Lancet drones are getting significant runs on the board. As losses of NATO-trained divisions pile up, Ukraine’s prospects seem bleak, even according to Western press which are usually loathe to say negative things about their allies.[6]

Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter. Photo: TheDrive

Russian Lancet 3 kamikaze drone. Photo netral.news

And thus, the narrative trap closed. ‘NATO tactics’ and ‘Western armour’ did not prove superior to ‘Russian soldiers fighting with shovels’.[7] As NBC News recently admitted, Ukraine’s supporters are already worried about losing control of the narrative.[8] Indeed, when the UK ‘intelligence update’ claimed that it was summer-time shrubbery that bogged down the Ukrainian offensive, it became difficult to take NATO seriously.[9]

The unravelling of NATO’s reputation as unchallengeable is a significant victory for the much-criticized Russian General Staff. Russia can no longer be painted as the defeated side and at the same time NATO is stretched. This is already sliding open Blinken’s ‘Pandora’s box’.

Simultaneously, the West is losing trust. The anti-Russian sanctions have middle powers worried. Their all-encompassing nature has non-aligned powers prioritizing local critical system autarchy and resilience. Perhaps the best, and often cited, example is Joko Widodo calling against using Visa and Mastercard.[10]

Russia is the 5th biggest economy the world in GDP by PPP according to the World Bank. Photo: r/UkraineCrisis2022 / Reddit

The ongoing debate around appropriating Russian state assets is also not going unnoticed. As Ghiles notes, ‘For a large part of the world… Washington’s reaction to the Russian invasion is as problematic as the invasion itself.’[11]

The breach of trust in the Atlantic economic system is starting as a trickle but may yet turn into a flood. At the moment a lot of changes are in discussion, such as Saudi Arabia considering whether to accept Chinese Yuan as payment for oil,[12] but the fact that they are on the table to begin with already indicates a paradigm shift from just two years prior. The damage to trust is done, and there is little the West can do to reassure partners in the Global South that US financial institutions remain reliable.

The faltering deterrent combined with a breach of trust edges open the Overton window. That’s why almost all African states sent delegations to the Russia-Africa forum in St Petersburg. And words previously unthinkable were spoken by the President of Eritrea when he said that EU and NATO are ‘defunct’ and ‘under intensive care’.[13]

Russia-Africa Summit 2023. Photo: @Kanthan2030 / Twitter

In ASEAN, too, Russian military representatives met with their counterparts from all member-states except Singapore.[14] China is continuing joint military exercises with Russia.[15]

And perhaps most pressing right now is the military takeover in Niger. Arguably had NATO done well in Ukraine, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani would not have the confidence to challenge French and US presence in the region. Neither would Mali and Burkina Faso be bold enough to promise military aid against ECOWAS intervention.

However, what is the alternative to the ‘rules-based order’? Game theory offers us a possible scenario. A Schelling point is a solution individuals choose by default in a state of uncertainty.

So, when the dollar-denominated foundation falters, whom do states flock to? What are the Schelling points in today’s geopolitical landscape? 40 countries applying to join BRICS offers an obvious answer.[16] The significant ASEAN presence at China’s Boao Forum earlier in the year gave a geopolitical preview of the direction of travel.

BRICS : Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Photo: SCMP

The narrative grave the West dug itself by escalating the conflict in Ukraine and amping up the Ukrainian counteroffensive was of its own making. Washington pushed snowballs off the mountain, and these are gaining pace.

The question then becomes whether alternative institutions take up the flag and rally the Global South. That remains unclear, but the narrative has certainly shifted from a matter of ‘if’ there is a reform in the world order to ‘when’ and ‘what’ it will look like.

And every time another Ukrainian battalion marches headfirst into minefields, the coming of a ‘New Era’ only accelerates.

[1] https://archive.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/support-ukraine-or-open-a-pandoras-box-blinken.html

[2] https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4030835-ukraine-battles-sky-high-expectations-ahead-of-counteroffensive/

[3] https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-last-taboo-germany-s-leopard-tanks-are-a-game-changer-with-significant-risks-a-6da8d3eb-4402-4fec-8159-9e16c8d0f27e

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/15/ukraine-war-russia-mines-counteroffensive/

[5] https://t.me/rusich_army/10189

[6] https://www.voiceofeurope.com/the-ukrainian-army-is-breaking-michael-vlahos-compact-mag/

[7] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64855760

[8] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia-success-failure-rcna98054

[9] https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2023/08/uk-intel-is-blaming-shrubbery-on.html

[10] https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2023/03/16/jokowi-wants-local-governments-to-ditch-visa-mastercard.html

[11] https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/opinion_cidob/2023/global_south_does_not_buy_western_stance_on_ukraine