The lack of leadership in the UN exposed by the Myanmar crisis

As the monsoon season hits Myanmar, floods turning the plight of the Burmese facing the double threat of both persecution by the military-rules regime and COVID-19 virus into a hellish triple threat.

Despite the obvious problem with the military overthrowing the election results, and mandating a one year postponement of a re-election (which there is no reason to believe they would honor that promise) – the deployment of military firing live bullets into the protesting crowd in the early days of the coup… daily protests/marches across Myanmar for months – and still happening today with all the threat of arrest and murder; outright sacking and burning of villages as well as denial of oxygen and medical help for those that caught COVID-19…

… the United Nations still cannot act in an tangible and meaningful way.

DPA (Defense Politics Asia) had been monitoring the situation closely for the past 2 months, and while we do not post about the protests/strikes/marches much, we can confirm that the “CDO” (civil disobedience movement) events are still organised on a daily basis across Myanmar purely from what we can see on Twitter alone; many more are likely to be held beyond sight. However the big confrontations and massive protests are no longer doable now; the protests had largely relegated to small protests in inconspicuous locations and timings, or impromptu protests that last less than 5-10mins flash mob style in heavy traffic areas.

The early enthusiasm and conviction of the Burmese people in their moral and absolute rights in their confrontation against the Tatmadaw’s coup, has now largely given way to pessimism and for some, outright suffering. The failure by ASEAN to get the coup leaders to work on an optimistic peaceful solution and path back to democracy is widely criticized within Myanmar as toothless, by some, even as a betrayal of the Burmese people, as talking to the coup leaders is akin to recognizing their legtimacy.

However, the reality is a starkly grim introduction for people of Myanmar to the world of geopolitics. No ASEAN countries are going to send their citizens to die in Myanmar in an armed struggle to “free” the people. In fact, ASEAN is never designed to operate militarily as a group, mindful of how military interventions can be abused using false pretense to collapse a perfectly legitimately elected leadership and government. Would you go to die far away from home for the people and country that have very little or nothing to do with you? This is a hard sell.

No ASEAN countries are going to send their citizens to die in Myanmar in an armed struggle to “free” the people.

Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan and Libya easily comes to mind, where support for the overthrowing of existing government resulted in untold suffering and deaths in those countries for years…. resulting in unresolved political crisis and power vacuums that heralds even more violence and suffering. Righteous actions often make things a lot worse than envisioned when facing a determined foe that showed their hand to maintain their interests.

The United Nations actually operates in the same way as ASEAN – its consensus based, and a firm commitment to no interference into “domestic matters”. As long as the Tatmadaw is able to keep the Myanmar crisis within its borders, United Nations will be hard pressed to intervene in any meaningful way. In fact, even deployment of peacekeepers into the country would require the consent of the Tatmadaw – which we could all predictably know that this will never be a scenario the coup leaders allow to happen.

This is on top of the fact that the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) is in fact a rather competent fighting force, and had been engaging in what is now known as one of the longest continuous civil war in modern history. With the extended military rule since independence until a decade ago, the Tatmadaw had spent generous amount of money in military investments. So incredible is this commitment to keep their military as advanced as they possibly could, witnessing one of their latest navy vessel, the Landing Platform Dock: Moattama would led to one’s assumption that this is a vessel from of the first world country and major military power.

As such, no countries will expect their military or coalition forces to just march into the Yangon without a fight. In fact, given the “vietnamese-nature” of the terrain, a war in Myanmar could be disastrous for any invading country. Tales from the Japanese attempt at taking this territory from the British in World War 2 are horrifying. If the Tatmadaw soldiers have no qualms firing live rounds into their own countrymen and unarmed civilians, they definitely will have enough courage to take on an invading force that could land them in war crimes / human rights tribunals should they lose. There is definitely sufficient interest and motivation to keep themselves in power, especially with them doubling down multiple times over the past few months.

The only scenario that an international military intervention WOULD have happened, is the emergence of a global leader with an unyielding principle of righteousness, and the charisma to rally the countries that share the same democratic principles, to brace sufficient confidence to contribute and be part of a commitment to go through with the intervention with the right objective/goal in mind to the end. However, such a leader does not exist in our global order now.

Righteous actions often make things a lot worse than envisioned when facing a determined foe that showed their hand to maintain their interests.

If there is a Hitler2.0 and a Nazi2.0 rising somewhere in the world which will lead us into a repeat of what transpired that led to World War 2 – we are doomed for World War 3. We do not have someone like this today among the global leaders, that would “do the right thing” for the betterment of all people.

Because of the pitfalls that comes with supporting a military intervention that does not seemed to have obvious respective national interests at stake, it requires an extraordinary narrative and a leader that can convince the wider global community to partake in it. However, at the back of the failures of US-led wars into Afghanistan and Iraq, such proposals will now require more than just a “righteous cause”, but also comprehensive and transparent plans on the transition back to civilian democratic rule in the shortest time possible after the end of military operations as well as an withdrawal of all coalition forces in the shortest time frame possible, without causing any participating country to linger more than its necessary (and without the abusing of the absolute power as seen in the Afghanistan by the United States – where the opium trade exploded after the collapse of the Taliban regime.)

In another word, doing the right thing without expecting anything in return, other than the goodwill of the people whom you liberated.

Do we have such a leader today?

…at the back of the failures of US-led wars into Afghanistan and Iraq, such proposals will now require more than just a “righteous cause”

While we dither around, Myanmar economy is now almost entirely smashed by both side of this conflict, with the people refusing to allow the military leaders to benefit from their labour, while on the other side, the military tries to drain out every last bit of perseverance in a battle of attrition.

Many youths resorted to become guerilla fighters, training with rebel forces in the countryside, in order to bring the fight (and serve their own brand of brutal justice) to the people siding and working with the coup leaders – and ironically, the military is widely accuse to also launch attacks in the similar vein (with planted bombs and explosive) against civilian targets that made very little sense from our superficial views – blurring the lines between who are responsible for which bombing. Most of the bombings and killings, arrests and murders had made little difference to the strategic situation in Myanmar. Not to mention a good number of these youths are caught, arrested and detained complete with the weapons and bombs in their homes or hideouts.

Most rebel forces are holding their ground to varying success, while the anti-Tatmadaw Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS)’s Shan State Army South (SSA-S), which is one of the largest rebel army in Myanmar) is now kept busy with the activation of the China-backed Shan State Progressive Party (SSPS)’s Shan State Army North (SSA-N), in a suspiciously time restart of their internal conflict. The United War State Army of the Wa State is happily staying out of trouble under the protection and guarantee of China (and they are the most vaccinated people in Myanmar thanks to China). Rakhine state is largely ignored by the Tatmadaw to the glee of the rebel groups there. The Chin forces however seemed to be largely routed by the Tatmadaw into the border regions between India and Myanmar. Only the Karen and Kayah based rebel groups seemed to be giving the “SAC” (State Administration Council aka coup leaders) forces a run for their money.

All these are happening as Burmese civilians are getting defeated by the pandemic, where vaccination programs are largely abandoned by the “new leaders” (I suspect its diverted to prioritise the military and police personnel first), COVID-19 testing are record low and oxygen is in severe short supply (civilians buy oxygen tanks to allow their love ones to breath at home… many of them cannot afford it ; read more about it here: http://defensepoliticsasia.com/myanmars-oxygen-crisis/).

In our assessment, unfortunately, the pain and suffering is likely to continue in Myanmar indefinitely – with tangible external help or military intervention looking extremely unlikely. We do not see the Tatmadaw losing their power anytime soon. And even a major uprising with the civilians armed by an outside power, may not result in a quick end to the crisis, but rather exacerbate the crisis even more intensely, as all the rebel groups would take the opportunity to consolidate or even increase their gains and declare their independence from Myanmar.

Outlook for Myanmar is grim.

(Cover Photo: UN Photo/ Loey Felipe)