The Republic of China, in brief.

Seventy years have passed since the “Great retreat” of the Kuomintang-ruled Republic of China to the island of Taiwan (Formosa). Expelled from the mainland, its rule reduced to Taiwan and a few minor islands off the coast of the mainland.

Since then, the Republic of China (ROC) has been politically divided into two camps. The pan-blue coalition which advocates for Chinese reunification under the ROC, and the Pan-Green coalition which advocates Taiwanese independence. Just across the straits, the ruling People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been adamant on the eventual incorporation of Taiwan into the PRC, by force if necessary.

The situation is further complicated by the intentional ambiguity of the United States as to the extent of its commitment to the defence of Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. The Act, while not guaranteeing nor withholding US protection, also allows for the sale of military equipment to Taiwan. This simultaneously deters a Taiwanese unilateral declaration of independence while deterring the Mainland from a military assault on Taiwan with the possibility of a US intervention.

Nonetheless, the PRC has made known that should Taiwan ever declare itself independent, or if the PRC were to determine that the possibility of peaceful unification is lost, that they would “use non-peaceful and other necessary means under these alternative conditions”. While such a statement might be excessive, the PRC views the issue of Taiwan in a different light. Having been ceded to the Japanese Empire after the disastrous first Sino-Japanese war, Taiwan remains the last major symbol of China’s “Century of Humiliation”. Losing Taiwan would deal a severe blow to the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party. An independent Taiwan would only further embolden Tibetan and Uyghur separatists in their struggle against Beijing.

The Party

The issue of legitimacy is one often faced by authoritarian regimes and China is no exception. Historically authoritarian means of government like an Absolute Monarchy claimed that their rule was justified by the Divine. This was seen in the Chinese concept of the “Mandate of Heaven” or the European “Divine right of Kings”. As such, going against one’s rulers then would be effectively going against the will of Heaven.
In this modern age, democracy provides an alternative source of legitimacy since at least theoretically speaking, those in government would only be empowered through the will of the people when expressed through elections. The ruling Communist Party (CPC) in China, however, lacks the legitimacy derived from either an electorate or the divine. As such, the only possible source of legitimacy, and quite possibly the most effective one, would be the positive results of its rule.

China has come a long way since the conclusion of its most recent civil war in 1949 with the victory of the CCP. Under its rule, China has become a nuclear power, a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council (ousting the ROC who occupied the spot previously), recovered Hong Kong and Macau, and spurred economic growth to heights surpassed only by the USA. The CCP has, therefore, more than justified its rule in the eyes of the Chinese citizenry. Yet despite all the success experienced by the mainland, Taiwan remains outside the fold. A blemish on an otherwise stellar record.
With the recent slowdown in economic growth and a looming demographic crisis just over the horizon, CCP leaders might be tempted to put further pressure on the Taiwanese issue to quell resentment among the masses.

Into the Present

The PRC’s rapid military and economic growth in the 21st century has shifted the balance of power decisively towards the PRC. 40% of Taiwan’s exports now go towards the mainland. Militarily, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has continued to rapidly modernize its Air and Naval assets with breath-taking speed. In contrast, Taiwan’s armed forces have found it increasingly difficult to procure arms from foreign suppliers due to a combination of political pressure from the PRC as well as Taiwan’s awkward diplomatic position. As of May 2019, only 16 countries continue to diplomatically recognise the ROC. The PRC continues to pressure these nations to withdraw their recognition of the ROC in order to wrest away Taiwan’s last few diplomatic allies.

Interestingly, support for Taiwanese independence among its populace is on a general upward trend but remains low. 27.7% of Taiwanese polled in 2019 indicated that they would prefer an independent Taiwan. In comparison, only a little over 10 per cent would prefer reunification with the rest supportive of the status quo. The combination of increasing support for independence in Taiwan and the PRC’s growing economic and military clout may seem likely to lead towards eventual armed conflict.
While an increasingly capable force, the PLA is not yet able to successfully mount a seaborne invasion large enough to subjugate the island. The PRC could instead opt for an Air-Sea blockade of the island in the hopes of strangling the island into submission. However, it risks drawing in the US and its regional allies, escalating the scope and potential risks of such a conflict.

Into the Future

The PRC seems content to wait and bide its time as Taiwan continues to fall further into the mainland’s economic embrace. In the meantime, the PLA continues to build-up and modernise its forces to pose a credible threat of invasion.

If Taiwan wishes to maintain its de-facto independence, it should start on the difficult task of weaning itself off the gigantic Chinese market and start searching for alternative markets for its exports. The procurement of arms should increasingly be sourced from the indigenous defence industry to avoid an over-reliance on often unavailable foreign weapons. Both sides of the straits should take significant care to avoid a confrontation that could lead to a conflagration of conflict across the Asia- Pacific region.

POLL sources: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3803943

Cover Image: Nikkei News