30 Jan: Wuhan Coronavirus future projections and inflection points
Given the tight timelines we are looking at in regards to the appearance, spread and control of the virus, we are able to make some projections and indicators into what would happen, if its gonna get worse, or get better, in the near future.
Timeline:
– 8 Dec 2019 : First Reported Case
– 9 Jan 2020 : 41 confirmed infections in China
– 11 Jan : First Death
– 20 Jan : 201 confirmed in China
– 22 Jan : 339 confirmed in China
– 23 Jan : Wuhan Quarantined
– 24 Jan : 887 confirmed in China
– 26 Jan : 2,065 confirmed in China
– 28 Jan : 4,535 confirmed in China
– 29 Jan : 6,086 confirmed in China (as of this writing)
As established in a previous article (
https://defensepoliticsasia.com/infected-in-china-to-reach-10000-13000-cases-by-end-of-jan-2020/ ), we are expecting continued exponential increase in confirmed infected numbers due to “uncontrolled infections”.
This is because, there is a possible 1 to 14 days incubation period for the coronavirus, before it will display symptoms of infection. As a result, any infections occurred before the “quarantining” of Wuhan City, will continue to add on to the numbers up to 14 days from 23rd January 2020 – which means, the infected numbers will continue to grow exponentially until 6th February 2020. It is important to note that, the “封城 feng cheng” of Wuhan was merely last week today (Thursday last week, 23th Jan 2020) – and already the number had rose at least 10 times the numbers reported then.
Which means the projected numbers of infected, in China alone (as there is largely no human-to-human transmission, yet, outside China), would be…
Projected Infected Numbers in China
– 30 Jan : 9000 confirmed (+3000)
– 31 Jan : 12,000 confirmed (+4000)
– 1 Feb : 18,000 confirmed (+4000)
– 2 Feb : 24,000 confirmed (+6000)
– 3 Feb : 36,000 confirmed (+12000)
– 4 Feb : 48,000 confirmed (+12000)
– 5 Feb : 72,000 confirmed (+24000)
– 6 Feb : 96,000 confirmed (+24000)
– 7 Feb : 144,000 confirmed (+48000)
As the general populace in China became aware and took serious precautions against virus, like movement control, wearing masks, quarantine of Wuhan, and other relevant actions from 23th Jan 2020 – we expect the exponential growth numbers to stop and become more linear after 7th Feb 2020.
However, given the scale of the crisis by 6th or 7th February, the daily increase of confirmed cases will still be tremendously high, and would seriously hamper and push the health infrastructure in China to its limit. And all these numbers, are only based on official released numbers by China government – this is not inclusive of cover ups and deliberate watering down of the numbers, or even those cases where they refuse to take in the patients and sent them back home / or those under home quarantine.
Another point to make is, the above assumptions are conditional based on 2 important factors:
1.) asymptomatic infections are negligible or non-existent
2.) non-china human-to-human transmission remains negligible
So as long as the above 2 conditions are met, then the crisis will be largely contained within China, and the rest of the world will be able to breath easier, following the exponential peak on 6th Feb 2020.
I will expect the linear growth after 6th / 7th Feb to last another 1 week, to account for the unpreparedness of the various cities and populace towards the sudden requirement to protect themselves upon knowing of the quarantining of Wuhan, before a massive exponential reduction of the cases in the following weeks till it is fully under control.
Projected Infection Numbers in China only
(do note the confirmed are accumulative)
– 9 Feb (Sun) : 240,000 confirmed (+96,000 from 7 Feb)
– 16 Feb (Sun) : 576,000 confirmed (+336,000)
– 23 Feb (Sun) : 663,000 confirmed (+87,000)
– 1 Mar (Sun) : 671,300 confirmed (+8,300)
– 8 Mar (Sun) : 678,550 confirmed (+7,250)
– 15 Mar (Sun) : 679,280 confirmed (+730)
– 22 Mar (Sun) : 679,355 confirmed (+75)
And from 22 March 2020 onwards, I will expected single digits infections increase per day for another month or 2, before it trickles to just single digits infections per week for another 2 months, then the crisis would be fully over.
So we would be looking at the end of the Wuhan Coronavirus crisis by End of July 2020.
Summary
– Jan 2020 : Explosion of coronavirus cases
– Feb 2020 : Peaking of infection cases and decline
– Mar 2020 : Situation stablized
– April – May 2020 : Situation fully under control
– June – July 2020 : Final defeating of the virus
– August – December 2020 : Clearing of remaining infected patients and complete conclusion of crisis.
HOWEVER
It is critical to establish the threat of asymptomatic transmission of the virus, and the “aftermath” of the “2nd week of uncontrolled spreading” (30th Jan 2020 to 5th Feb 2020) will be the timeline to watch.
Because 1 week prior to the quarantine of Wuhan, massive number of Wuhan residents had already departed for safer havens – and these are largely those that started new clusters all over China and those that are “nabbed” overseas – the overseas infected numbers, proven by the point that a massive majority of the infected quarantined and treated overseas from China had travelled from Wuhan itself.
30th Jan – 5th Feb will mark the appearance of those infected within the week before the Wuhan Quarantine, which is also the time where the transmission of the virus was most rampant.
Number 1 Inflection point to note: Is there any localised human-to-human transmission outside China / new clusters?
Because if there are, that would mean asymptomatic transmission is more serious than we projected earlier – and this would spike the number of transmission outside China massively. It may also invalidate the projections done earlier, because the exponential potentials of new infection cases will not stop just because of the measures taken by the Chinese authorities, as the protections done by the populace, are based around the presence of the symptoms.
As a result, it would be impossible to project the numbers for overseas cases in such scenario either, as clusters will appear suddenly, and with a 2 weeks asymptomatic-transmission head-start, authorities around the world will struggle to keep the situation under control. Then we will really have SARS 2.0. Fingers crossed.
We will revisit and scrutinize the development when such scenario becomes a reality.
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Cover Image: By Getty Images
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— edit 7 Feb 2020 —
A new article is written, following the invalidation of this article’s projection. You can read it here: