# Defense Politics Asia (DPA) — Full Content Generated: 2026-10-07 --- ## 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/focus/india-pakistan/ Updated: 2026-08-17 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis Diplomatic Fallout and Tension over Pahalgam Terror Attack TO KEEP THIS INDIA-PAKISTAN COVERAGE GOING: SUBSCRIBE to our YOUTUBE channel (- CLICK HERE -)!!! SITREP (VIDEO) STRATEGIC MAP The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. SITUATION OVERVIEW DPA RISK OF WAR ASSESSMENT (8 May 2025) IMMINENT DPA Note (30 April 2025): India launched “Operation Sindoor”, sending airstriks and missile strikes into Pakistan; Pakistan retaliated with missile strikes and shooting down of Indian aircrafts; including exchange of artillery fire – raising the “Risk of War” assessment level to “Imminent”. DPA Note (30 April 2025): Pakistan’s Information Minister publicly warned based on “credible intelligence” that India military action is imminent – within 24-36 hours. DPA currently put high credibility to the claim, raising the “Risk of War” assessment level from MID-HIGH to HIGH DPA Note (26 April 2025): Near total cutting of diplomatic relationships, deployment of troops by both sides to the border, as well as the suspending of Indus Water Treaty bring the risk of war to a very high level. Suspending of Indus Water Treaty / cutting of river flow is a casus belli for war – thus India had escalated the risk of war to a very high level. Background of the Pahalgam Attack (April 22, 2025) Location: Pahalgam, a tourist hub in Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir, known for its scenic beauty and Amarnath pilgrimage route. Incident: Militants attacked a crowded market and tourist area on April 22, 2025. Resulted in 26 deaths, primarily tourists, with dozens injured. Attack involved gunfire and explosives, targeting civilians. Perpetrators: The Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group, claimed responsibility. TRF is considered a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist organization designated by the UN and multiple countries. India alleges Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supports TRF and LeT, providing funding, training, and logistics. Kashmir Context: Jammu and Kashmir has been a disputed region since the 1947 India-Pakistan partition. India administers the region as a union territory after revoking its semi-autonomous status in 2019, a move that heightened tensions. Militancy in Kashmir surged in the 1990s, with groups like LeT targeting Indian forces and civilians to push for independence or merger with Pakistan. Recent years saw a decline in violence, but high-profile attacks persist, often targeting security forces or civilians. Historical Precedents: Similar to the 2019 Pulwama attack, where 40 Indian soldiers were killed, leading to India’s airstrike on alleged militant camps in Balakot, Pakistan. Post-2019, India adopted a proactive stance against cross-border terrorism, including surgical strikes and diplomatic measures. Motives: Militants aim to destabilize Indian control in Kashmir, disrupt tourism (a key economic driver), and provoke conflict between India and Pakistan. Attack timed to maximize civilian casualties and international attention, leveraging Kashmir’s visibility as a conflict zone. Immediate Fallout: India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack, citing intelligence on TRF’s cross-border links. Sparked a series of retaliatory measures, including suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and border closures, escalating into the current crisis. TIMELINE (preamble) April 22, 2025 Terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir. Militants ambushed tourists, killing 26 (mostly Hindu tourists) and injuring over 20. Attackers reportedly targeted non-Muslims after questioning victims’ religious identity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, vowing to pursue perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth. Public outrage in India, with anti-Pakistan protests in Delhi and other cities, raising concerns about anti-Kashmiri and anti-Muslim sentiment. April 23, 2025 India suspend Indus Waters Treaty, halting flood data sharing. Closed Attari-Wagah border crossing. Revoked visas for Pakistani nationals, expelled military advisers, and reduced diplomatic staff. Pakistan denied involvement, called India’s treaty suspension an “act of war.” Suspended trade, closed airspace and land borders to India. Conducted surface-to-surface missile test off Karachi coast, April 24-25. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggested attack might be a “false flag operation” by India. April 24, 2025 Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement in retaliation for India’s treaty suspension. Closed airspace to Indian aircraft. Halted all trade with India and closed land borders, except for the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrims. Expelled Indian diplomats and ordered Indian military advisers to leave Pakistan by April 30. Reduced the Attari-Wagah border ceremony, omitting the symbolic handshake. India summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat in New Delhi to protest alleged Pakistani involvement in the attack. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh hinted at a “strong response,” reiterating India’s “zero tolerance” for terrorism. Skirmishes reported along the Line of Control (LoC) in the night of April 24-25. April 25, 2025 India’s Army Chief of Staff General Upendra Dwivedi visited the Pahalgam attack site to review security arrangements. Indian Navy deployed aircraft carrier INS Vikrant to the Arabian Sea near Pakistan’s maritime borders, accompanied by MiG-29K jets and INS Surat. Conducted live-fire drills, including a medium-range surface-to-air missile launch. Pakistan conducted a surface-to-surface missile test off the Karac… --- ## About Defense Politics Asia URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/about/ Updated: 2019-01-14 Defense Politics Asia is a community funded think tank located in Asia (Singapore), dedicated to provide vital insights into military, geopolitics, internal politics and economic developments that are happening across Asia and around the world. Defense Politics Asia is based in Singapore We aim to close the knowledge gap and the cultural divide for the global audience that seeks to understand Asia. --- ## Account URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/account/ Updated: 2026-09-23 --- ## Advertise URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/advertise/ Updated: 2021-09-16 Advertise on DPA Defense Politics Asia (DPA) is an unique media platform where extraordinary individuals with good taste congregates and visits for their latest dose of geopolitics, politics and military news stories. Our unique blend of international audience provides an incredible opportunity for your brand to reach this hard to reach market segment. At over 2000 unique visitors per month and growing, you can be part of history in the making – to support this budding media channel in its infancy – and become an enabler for DPA to become something bigger. Reach audiences at a fraction of the advertising cost on other sites, while enabling DPA to create more content. 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China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days – effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here. The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony – thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region. DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% – given the trade war respite is only for 90 days – and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days. PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025) Risk of China Invasion of Taiwan is increasing… Trump administration’s “New World Order” via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies. China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems. China’s economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation – any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries. The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump’s election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US’s war time production.  China’s military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now. If China’s economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) – China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with – which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues. Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur. China could also use “a war” in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump’s trade/economic offensive; similar to China’s deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot. An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position – a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump’s ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA. An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan – on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict. Failure of the allies and partners to answer US’ call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good. KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025) Trump Administration (USA) take actions to redefine the US-led world trading/economic order. USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump. China had retaliated against the US “Liberation Day” tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff. DPA Projection (7 April 2025): DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc… to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day). DEVELOPMENT (March 2025) USA now sees Deterring China take over of Taiwan as a Military Priority. A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China. ​Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is “no longer primarily focused” on Europe’s security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China’s growing influence.​ Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting… --- ## Conflict Atlas URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/conflict/ Updated: 2026-08-11 --- ## Contact us URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/contact-us/ Updated: 2017-11-20 Your Name (required) Your Email (required) Subject Your Message --- ## DPA Open Mic URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/open-mic/ Updated: 2026-08-16 Weekly DPA Open Mic — live geopolitics and defense discussion. --- ## Editor's Notes URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/editors-notes/ Updated: 2022-04-24 Editor’s Notes Advertise on DPA Join the DPA Team SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLE TO DPA If you want to publish your articles with us, submit the article with the form below, and we will contact you shortly. Alternatively, you can simply just contact us directly at admin@defensepoliticsasia.com Name Email Article Title Article Note: As DPA is not yet a profitable / revenue making orgnisation yet, we wont be able to compensate for any articles that are published. But we are looking to grow our audience to be able to do so one day. We hope you can be on this journey with us, to build DPA into something bigger than ourselves – and hopefully get paid doing it. --- ## Finance & Economics Home URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/finance-economics-home/ Updated: 2021-10-01 Finance & Economics ARTICLES FEATURED --- ## Focus URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/focus/ Updated: 2026-08-16 Focus Major developments around the world can be complex and hard to keep track of, the more we read, the more likely we get confused by the bias and narratives spun by the various sides. So on DPA’s Focus pages, you will be able to get the macro overview of the situations of major issues around the world, without getting hoodwinked by the mainstream media. Trade War “Reform of the US-Led Economic Order” 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis “Diplomatic Fallout/Tension over Pahalgam Attack” Ukraine “Russia’s Special Military Operation” Israel-Palestine “Hamas-Israeli Conflict” Myanmar “Burmese Civil War / Military Coup” --- ## Footer URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/footer/ Updated: 2025-04-07 © 2025 Defense Politics Asia | designed by joji.co --- ## Geopolitics Home URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/geopolitics-home/ Updated: 2021-09-03 Geopolitics --- ## Header URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/header/ Updated: 2025-02-25 For press release submission: press@defensepoliticsasia.com For advertising enquiries: advertise@defensepoliticsasia.com For any enquiries, you can contact DPA at admin@defensepoliticsasia.com YOUTUBE --- ## Home URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/home-2/ Updated: 2026-05-07 SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLE TO DPA If you want to publish your articles with us, submit the article with the form below, and we will contact you shortly. Name Email Article Title Article One of the best way to SUPPORT what we do here at DPA is to SUBSCRIBE to our YOUTUBE channel (- CLICK HERE -)!!! FEATURED COVER STORY TRADE WAR “Reform of the US-Led Economic Order” UKRAINE “RUSSIAN SPECIAL OPERATION” MYANMAR MILITARY COUP CRISIS ISRAEL-PALESTINE “HAMAS-ISRAELI CONFLICT” SUPPORT DPA ON PATREON Get Exclusive Content! Become a DPA Insider on DPA’s Patreon to access Exclusive Reports & Content. 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REPORTS & ANALYSIS STRATEGIC MAP: 9/10/2023 To get the lastest and most updated mapping, subscribe to the “DPA Officer” tier member on DPA Patreon or DPA Ko-Fi. Your support will allow the continued  coverage of the Ukraine War regardless any revenue issues from Youtube. Revenue is needed to maintain the coverage/mapping. Distance The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. SITREP (VIDEO) SITUATION OVERVIEW Point of view ISRAEL “”Our enemy will pay a price the type of which it has never known… We are in a war and we will win it”.” Benjamin Netanyahu Prime Minister Israel 7 October 2023 … owing to retaliate after Hamas declared war as Israeli’s army confirmed fighting with militants in several Israeli towns and military bases near Gaza. Point of view PALESTINE (HAMAS) “This is the day of the greatest battle to end the last occupation on earth…. Enough is enough. Today the people are regaining their revolution” Mohammad Deif  Supreme Military Commander Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas 7 October 2023 … in the recorded message announcing the start of the operation broadcasted on Hamas media . He said the morning attack on 7 October 2023 was only the start of what he called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm” and called on Palestinians from east Jerusalem to northern Israel to join the fight.. Point of view PALESTINE (FATAH) “Palestinian people have the rights to defend themselves in facing the terrorism posed by settlers and the Israeli occupation forces.” Mahmoud Abbas  President Palestine 7 October 2023 … said during an emergency leadership meeting he chaired on Saturday that included several Palestinian civilian and security officials. The Palestinian President stressed, during the meeting, the importance of providing the protection for Palestinian people and directed them to provide everything essential to enhance their resilience and steadfastness in the face of the crimes perpetrated by the Israeli occupation forces and the settlers’ gangs. Point of view UNITED STATES “Over the coming days the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism. We will remain in close contact with our Israeli partners. The United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself” Lloyd Austin Defense Secretary United States 7 October 2023 … says he is “closely monitoring” the escalating situation in Israel after Hamas militants launched a rocket attack on the Gaza Strip. Point of view LEBANON (HEZBOLLAH) “It is a renewed confirmation that the will of the Palestinian people and the rifle of the resistance is the only choice in confronting aggression and occupation. It sends a message to the Arab and Islamic world, and the international community as a whole, especially those seeking normalization with this enemy, that the Palestinian cause is an everlasting one, alive until victory and liberation. We call on the peoples of our Arab and Islamic nation, and the free people around the world, to declare their support and backing for the Palestinian people and the Resistance movements, affirming their unity in blood, word, and action.” Hezbollah … congratulates the resisting Palestinian people and the heroic fighters of the Palestinian factions, especially our dear brothers in the Al-Qassam Brigades and the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, for the wide-ranging and divinely supported heroic operation, promising complete victory. Point of view YEMEN (HOUTHI) “The Council affirmed the right of the Palestinian people and the resistance factions to combat the occupying enemy by all legitimate and possible means. It reiterated his support for all options taken by the Palestinian resistance leadership to deter the Zionist enemy.” Houthi’s Supreme Political Council … also affirmed its principled and religious position in supporting the Palestinian people until complete victory… calling on the Arab and Islamic countries to take positions in supporting Palestinians and their resistance fighters, support them with money, weapons, and boycott American and Israeli goods. Point of view IRAN “We congratulate the Palestinian fighters. We will stand by the Palestinian fighters until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem” Yahya Rahim Safavi Adviser to Ali Khamenei and former Chief Commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iran 7 October 2023 … expressed “deep concern” on developments in Gaza and called on “all parties” to halt the escalations and “exercise utmost restraint”. Point of view QATAR “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs holds Israel alone responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people, the latest of which is the repeated raids on the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque under the protection of the Israeli police.” Qatar Foreign Ministry 7 October 2023 … expressed “deep concern” on developments in Gaza and called on “all parties” to halt the escalations and “exercise utmost restraint”. Point of view SAUDI ARABIA “Saudi Arabia had issued repeated warnings of a possible escalation in light of “the ongoing occupation and the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, as well as the repeated deliberate provocations against their sanc… --- ## Job Openings @ DPA URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/dpa-career/ Updated: 2021-12-04 Be part of DPA JOINING DPA If you are interesting to join the DPA team, please fill in your details with the form below, and we will contact you shortly. Alternatively, you can simply just email us directly at admin@defensepoliticsasia.com First Name* Last Name Email* Preferred Topic / Specialisations Country You Are Based In* Expected Salary/Month (USD)* Additional Remarks --- ## Map Code backup URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/map-code-backup/ Updated: 2025-06-02 --- ## Map Test URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/map-test/ Updated: 2025-06-02 ✚ ✚ Distance --- ## Military Home URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/military-home/ Updated: 2025-04-07 Military ARTICLES FEATURED --- ## Myanmar URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/myanmar/ Updated: 2025-06-03 Myanmar REPORTS & ANALYSIS STRATEGIC MAP The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. SITREP (VIDEO) SITUATION OVERVIEW Point of view STATE ADMINISTRATION COUNCIL (SAC) / MILITARY PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT “I guarantee the establishment of a union based on democracy and federalism… …I pledge to hold the multiparty general election without fail… … accomplish the provisions of the state of emergency by August 2023″ Senior General, Min Aung Hlaing Chairman, State Administration Council Myanmar 1 August 2021 …Min Aung Hlaing named himself prime minister reneging on his promise to hold election after the end of a one year state of emergency in a televised address on Sunday, extending it for another 2 years from now until August 2023; while forming a provisional government under his prime minister-ship. Point of view MILITARY / STATE ADMINISTRATION COUNCIL (SAC) “Myanmar side is committed to promoting national stability, economic growth and improvement of people’s livelihoods, and safeguarding democracy and the rule of law.” Senior General, Min Aung Hlaing Chairman, State Administration Council Myanmar 6 June 2021 …according to a release of the Chinese embassy of Myanmar. Demands / Objectives STATE ADMINISTRATION COUNCIL (SAC) During the television message by Tatmadaw Chief, Sen-Gen Min Aung Hlaing on 9 Feb 2021, introducing the five-point plan for the one-year emergency state. 9 Feb 2021 According to the plan, Myanmar will continue to follow its current political path and shall not bring amendments to current foreign, executive and economic policies. The newly reformed Union Election Commission is reviewing the electoral process of last year’s general election. The ongoing Covid-19 programs will not be discontinued. Moreover, emphasis will be given to the distribution of vaccines all over the country. National and International investments will be encouraged to help the businesses affected by the pandemic. In order to promote eternal peace, nationwide ceasefire agreements will be called with ethnic armed organizations. A fair and free general election will be held and the power of the state will be handed to a political party which wins in line with democracy standards. Point of view NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT (NUG) “This revolution is a just and fair revolution and is necessary to build a federal union with sustainable peace” Duwa Lashi La Acting President, National Unity Government Myanmar 7 September 2021 …in an emergency speech announced on Tuesday that the people’s “resistance war” against the junta had started and urged the public across the country to revolt against the military coup regime led by Min Aung Hlaing. Called on the NUG’s People’s Defence Force (PDF) to target “every pillar of the junta’s ruling mechanism,” as well as to protect the lives of Myanmar’s people, to follow orders and to behave in line with the PDF’s code of conduct. Point of view NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT (NUG) “The transition from a military council to a caretaker government is a reflection of the fact that they are preparing for an international diplomatic battle, trying to prove the fact that they are a government. However, there is no denying the fact that the military is not elected by the people” Aung Myo Min Minister for Human Rights, National Unity Government Myanmar 1 August 2021 …in a post on Facebook in reaction to the transition of SAC to Provisional Government. Point of view NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT (NUG) “Any discussions, any meeting about the future of the people of Myanmar must include the people of Myanmar, (their) voices must be heard” Sa Sa Spokesperson, National Unity Government Myanmar 7 June 2021 …objecting to the meeting held between ASEAN leaders and “oppressive military regime” to be held that Friday on 4 June 2021. Point of view EUROPEAN UNION (EU) “Given the complete refusal by the military junta to engage in negotiations and their growing repression, the EU is also working on a new sanctions package to further defend human rights.” Josep Borrell EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Vice-President of the European Commission 15 June 2021 …in an article to the BusinessWorld on this visit to Jakarta and ASEAN. Point of view UNITED NATIONS (UN) “I am in contact with almost every ethnic armed organization to discuss how we can solve the overall problem in the country to find a peaceful solution. And I’m sure talking is always better than violence.” Schraner Burgener UN Special Envoy on Myanmar 18 June 2021 …spoke to journalists following her closed-door briefing to the UN Security Council. Point of view ASEAN “To be honest with you, we are disappointed at the slow – very, very slow progress,” Vivian Balakrishnan Foreign Minister of Singapore 7 June 2021 …told Singapore media in a call from Chongqing, China, where ASEAN foreign ministers met their Chinese counterpart on Monday, 7 June 2021. Declaration Of War NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT (NUG) In a recorded emergency speech by the acting President, Duwa Lashi La 7 September 2021 People’s resistance war against the junta had started Urging public to revolt against the military coup regime People’s Defense Force (PDF) to target “every pillar of the junta’s ruling mechanism” Urge local administrators working under the junta to resign Warned people not to undertake unnecessary travel, stock up on food and medical supplies Call on people to help the PDFs and civilian resistance forces by becoming informants of military activities Urged ethnic a… --- ## Posture URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/posture/ Updated: 2026-08-11 Posture Map (exercises and major deployments) is a separate product from Conflict Atlas. Map engine work comes next — this page is the reserved nav slot. --- ## Privacy Policy URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/privacy-policy/ Updated: 2018-06-09 At Defense Politics Asia, we do not collect any information of our users with exception to what Patreon, Quora, Facebook and Google collect via their platforms. Any issues with privacy and data loss associated with Defense Politics Asia will not be entertained. --- ## Projections URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/projections/ Updated: 2025-04-07 Projections DPA tries to analyze the situations around the world on various major geopolitical issues; but it would be difficult for readers to keep track on DPA’s analysis and projections. So this new segment is to resolve to issue as well as to provide our projections on how dangerous various issues to reach boiling points. China Invasion of Taiwan --- ## Russo-Ukraine War Map Archive URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/ukraine-map-archive/ Updated: 2025-06-05 Russo-Ukraine War Map Archive All the past DPA mapping of the Russo-Ukraine War is below. DO NOTE: the maps can be wrong (and some were wrong) and then corrected in the subsequent days’ maps as information is entirely collected from open source and governmental/military report from the warring sides. Day 1-10 (24 Feb – 5 March 2022) Day 11-20 (6-15 March 2022) Day 21-30 (16-25 March 2022) Day 31-43 (26 March ~ 7 April 2022) Day 44-55 (8-19 April 2022) Day 56-70 (20 April ~ 4 May 2022) Day 71-84 (5-18 May 2022) Day 85-98 (19 May – 1 June 2022) Day 99-116 (2-19 June 2022) Day 117-133 (20 June – 6 July 2022) Day 134-155 (7-28 July 2022) Day 156-176 (29 July – 18 August 2022) Day 177-189 (19 August – 31 August 2022) Day 190-202 (1-13 September 2022) Day 203-212 (14-23 September 2022) Day 213-222 (24 Sept – 3 Oct 2022) Day 223-236 (4-17 October 2022) Day 237-250 (18-31 October 2022) Day 251-269 (1-19 November 2022) Day 270-281 (20 Nov – 1 Dec 2022) Day 282-296 (2-16 December 2022) Day 297-311 (17-31 December 2022) Day 312-323 (1-12 January 2023) Day 324-337 (13-26 January 2023) Day 338-350 (27 January – 8 February 2023) Day 351-368 (9-26 February 2023) Day 369-378 (27 Feb – 8 March 2023) Day 379-391 (9-21 March 2023) Day 392-412 (22 Mar – 11 April 2023) Day 413-429 (12-28 April 2023) Day 430-443 (29 April – 12 May 2023) Day 444-457 (13-26 May 2023) Day 458-470 (27 May – 8 June 2023) Day 471-485 (9-23 June 2023) Day 486-500 (24 June – 8 July 2023) Day 501-515 (9-23 July 2023) Day 516-536 (24 July – 13 Aug 2023) Day 537-547 (14-24 Aug 2023) Day 548-561 (25 Aug – 7 Sept 2023) Day 562-579 (8-25 Sept 2023) Day 580-597 (26 Sept – 13 Oct 2023) Day 598-630 (14 Oct – 15 Nov 2023) Day 631-644 (16-29 Nov 2023) Day 645-655 (30 Nov – 10 Dec 2023) Day 656-665 (11-20 Dec 2023) Day 666-678 (21 Dec 2023 – 2 Jan 2024) Day 679-691 (3-15 Jan 2024) Day 692-707 (16-31 Jan 2024) Day 708-719 (1-12 Feb 2024) Day 720-732 (13-25 Feb 2024) Day 733-743 (26 Feb – 7 March 2024) Day 744-754 (8-18 March 2024) Day 755-768 (19 March – 1 April 2024) Day 769-783 (2-16 April 2024) Day 784-795 (17-28 April 2024) Day 796-806 (29 April – 9 May 2024) Day 807-819 (10-22 May 2024) Day 820-831 (23 May – 3 Jun 2024) Day 832-844 (4-16 Jun 2024) Day 845-856 (17-28 Jun 2024) Day 857-868 (29 Jun – 10 July 2024) Day 869-883 (11-25 July 2024) Day 884-896 (26 July – 7 August 2024) Day 897-906 (8-17 August 2024) Day 907-916 (18-27 August 2024) Day 917-926 (28 August – 6 Sept 2024) Day 927-936 (7-16 Sept 2024) Day 937-947 (17-27 Sept 2024) Day 948-959 (28 Sept – 9 Oct 2024) Day 960-969 (10-19 Oct 2024) Day 970-981 (20-31 Oct 2024) Day 982-995 (1-14 Nov 2024) Day 996-1008 (15-27 Nov 2024) Day 1009-1026 (28 Nov – 15 Dec 2024) Day 1027-1041 (16-30 Dec 2024) Day 1042-1055 (31 Dec 2024 – 13 Jan 2025) Day 1056-1073 (14-31 Jan 2025) Day 1074-1086 (1-13 Feb 2025) Day 1087-1104 (14 Feb – 3 March 2025) Day 1105-1116 (4-15 March 2025) Day 1117-1128 (16-27 March 2025) Day 1129-1144 (28 March – 12 April 2025) Day 1145-1155 (13-23 April 2025) Day 1156-1167 (24 April – 5 May 2025) Day 1168-1183 (6-21 May 2025) Day 1184-1196 (22 May – 3 June 2025)   The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. << Back to Ukraine War Page --- ## Services URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/services/ Updated: 2026-08-16 Custom monitors, private briefings, retainers, and white-label feeds. Packaging and intake land here as DPA 3.0 expands. Explore the live platform while we finalize the services menu. --- ## Subscribe To Our Mailing List URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/subscribe-to-mailing-list/ Updated: 2017-11-20 * indicates required Email Address * Name * Last Name / Surname Country * United States of AmericaAaland IslandsAfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican SamoaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua And BarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBoliviaBonaire, Saint Eustatius and SabaBosnia and HerzegovinaBotswanaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBrunei DarussalamBulgariaBurkina FasoBurundiCambodiaCameroonCanadaCape VerdeCayman IslandsCentral African RepublicChadChileChinaChristmas IslandCocos (Keeling) IslandsColombiaComorosCongoCook IslandsCosta RicaCote D’IvoireCroatiaCubaCuracaoCyprusCzech RepublicDemocratic Republic of the CongoDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEgyptEl SalvadorEquatorial GuineaEritreaEstoniaEthiopiaFalkland IslandsFaroe IslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrench GuianaFrench PolynesiaFrench Southern TerritoriesGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuadeloupeGuamGuatemalaGuernseyGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHeard and Mc Donald IslandsHondurasHong KongHungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIranIraqIrelandIsle of ManIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJersey (Channel Islands)JordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKuwaitKyrgyzstanLao People’s Democratic RepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacauMacedoniaMadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshall IslandsMartiniqueMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesia, Federated States ofMoldova, Republic ofMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNetherlands AntillesNew CaledoniaNew ZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorfolk IslandNorth KoreaNorthern Mariana IslandsNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinePanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPitcairnPolandPortugalPuerto RicoQatarRepublic of KosovoReunionRomaniaRussiaRwandaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint MartinSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoa (Independent)San MarinoSao Tome and PrincipeSaudi ArabiaSenegalSerbiaSeychellesSierra LeoneSingaporeSint MaartenSlovakiaSloveniaSolomon IslandsSomaliaSouth AfricaSouth Georgia and the South Sandwich IslandsSouth KoreaSouth SudanSpainSri LankaSt. HelenaSt. Pierre and MiquelonSudanSurinameSvalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsSwazilandSwedenSwitzerlandSyriaTaiwanTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTimor-LesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidad and TobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurks & Caicos IslandsTurks and Caicos IslandsTuvaluUgandaUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomUruguayUSA Minor Outlying IslandsUzbekistanVanuatuVatican City State (Holy See)VenezuelaVietnamVirgin Islands (British)Virgin Islands (U.S.)Wallis and Futuna IslandsWestern SaharaYemenZambiaZimbabwe --- ## Total Cutting of Trade with China URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/projections/total-cutting-of-trade-with-china/ Updated: 2025-05-13 DPA PROJECTION Total Cutting of Trade with China Total Cutting of Trade between US and China 50% Possibility Total Cutting of Trade between China & Most of the World 15% Possibility PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025) Threat of total cut in trade between China and USA lowers after China’s softened stance… In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025. China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days – effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here. The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony – thus signaling possibilities that at least certain factions within the CCP have interests to try to fix/reform its economic system. DPA assess the risk to drop from 75% to 50% – given the trade war respite is only for 90 days – and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days. USA’s Economic War strategy remains unchanged and is still on course, to either force China into an “economic surrender” by going into economic reform and opening up of its currently semi-closed economy; or to cut China entirely out of the US-led economic/trading ecosystem. As such risk of the majority of the world cutting China off remains the same at 15%, as the economic system of China remains largely a threat to most countries’ economic development and welfare. PROJECTION UPDATE (16 April 2025) USA and China in massive trade war USA slapped tariffs to 145% (with some products reaching 245%) after China retaliated against USA’s reciprocal tariff. China raise tariffs in reaction to 125% on US goods with multitude of other non-tariffs retaliations. China’s willingness to fight USA on USA’s tariffs resulted in a trade war that now made have tariffs that effectively embargoed huge amount of Chinese goods from US market. As China economic system is extremely rigid right now, it is nearly impossible for China to agree to any US terms. China had also been extremely dependent on massive trade surplus to counterbalance internal economic woes – this made it impossible for China to reduce the trade surplus with USA. But unwillingness to deal would drive USA to cut trade entirely with China eventually. USA will also likely to force trading partners to cut China out of the US-led economic/trading bloc – which many of them are also suffering from trade imbalance and economic threats from China. DPA believe the China is unlikely to concede/surrender to USA in the trade war, thus increasing the risk of a total economic cut to 75% chance. Scott Bessent mentioned on the 9th April 2025 that if USA reaches deals with their allies, they could approach China as a group. But as the deals with other countries are still currently under negotiations, the risk of a cut of trade between China and majority of the world remains low, at 15%. --- ## Trade War URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/focus/trade-war/ Updated: 2026-08-17 Trade War Trump’s Reform of the US-Led International Trade/Economic System TO KEEP THIS COVERAGE GOING: FUND OUR WORK ON PATREON!!! REPORTS & ANALYSIS VIDEO REPORTS TRADE BALANCE (USD Billions) MAP (OF EACH RESPECTIVE COUNTRY) The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. US TRADE BALANCE (USD Billions) The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. CURRENT “TRADE WAR” TARIFFS latest tariff by Usa China 145% >>> 10% (12 May 2025) Canada 25% for non-USMCA Mexico 25% for non-USMCA European Union 10% until 8 July 2025 Countries tariffed above 10% 10% until 8 July 2025 Other countries 10% latest retaliatory tariff on Usa China 125% >>> 10% (from 12 May 2025) US RECIPROCAL TARIFF (2 APRIL 2025) US VS CHINA MATCH UP Agreed Trade deals with usa May 9, 2025 – United Kingdom: 10% baseline tariff kept on British products imported to the United States. The agreement lowers 25% universal tariffs on automobiles from the UK to 10%, while the 25% rate still applies to vehicles from other countries. Trump also agreed to eliminate 25% tariffs on steel from the UK. Other details are still in the works. Offers to USA in Negotiations April 1, 2025 – Israel: Proposing new trade agreements by eliminating tariffs on U.S. goods, effective April 1, 2025; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s push aligns with White House praise from April 8-10, 2025. April 2, 2025 – Canada: Secured a tariff delay until April 2, 2025 under the USMCA; offering cooperation on fentanyl and trade imbalances, with talks continuing on April 10, 2025 following tariff announcements on April 7, 2025. April 2, 2025 – Mexico: Under a tariff delay until April 2, 2025 via the USMCA; proposing drug trafficking measures, with negotiations ongoing on April 10, 2025 in response to tariff policy effective April 7, 2025. April 4, 2025 – Vietnam: Offering zero tariffs on all U.S. goods; Vietnam’s leader To Lam proposed this during a call with Trump, with delegations rushing to Washington by April 10, 2025 to finalize terms. May 9, 2025 – Vietnam:Vietnam had lowered tariffs on American cherries, apples and almonds, all important exports for the country’s western states, confirmed by USA. April 6, 2025 – Taiwan: Offering zero tariffs on U.S. goods, proposed by April 6, 2025; negotiations ongoing by April 10, 2025 in response to tariff escalation starting April 7, 2025. April 7, 2025 – India: Open to slashing tariffs on U.S. imports worth $23 billion; negotiations started among the 75+ countries contacting the U.S. since Trump’s tariff policy took effect, continuing into April 10, 2025. April 8, 2025 – South Korea: Expected to propose tariff cuts and investments (e.g., Hyundai’s $21 billion U.S. plan); Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo met U.S. officials on April 8-9, 2025, with talks ongoing by April 10, 2025. April 7, 2025 – European Union: Signaling openness to negotiations, offering a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal; counter-tariffs on $28 billion of U.S. goods set for April 15, 2025, in response to U.S. steel tariffs, with talks ongoing since April 7, 2025. USA Negotiations April 17, 2025 – Italy: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met Trump at the white house. Trump stated he was “100% certain” of a future trade deal with Europe, while Meloni emphasized a “zero-for-zero” tariff approach to avoid a trade war. Meloni invited Trump to visit Italy, which he accepted, but no timeline was set. Conclusion: No deal, waiting for EU-US negotiation. April 16-17, 2025 – Japan: Japan visits White House. Trump signals he will be negotiating tariff, cost of military support and trade fairness. Japan signals they will not be pressured into unjust trade deals, seeking fairness and diplomacy. Conclusion: No deal, to meet again in late April 2025. April 9-10, 2025 – Vietnam: Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc is on a working trip to the U.S. for tariff-related negotiations, and is expected to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. April 10-12, 2025 – China: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet in Geneva with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng. Both sides agree to remove tariffs and restrictions since “Liberation Day” for 90 Days. De Minimis duties remained, but reduced. China Counter Negotiations April 11, 2025 – Spain: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits China as the EU rethinks its trade ties following new US import tariffs that have shaken global markets. During his meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Xi said China and the EU should cooperate more closely to deal with the growing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington April 14-18, 2025 – Vietnam, Malaysia Cambodia: President Xi Jinping will visit three Southeast Asian countries next week, as China steps up efforts to court partners to buffer the economy against an escalating trade war with the US. Specific Goods Targeted by Section 301 Tariffs on China Electronics and Semiconductors: Semiconductors: 50% tariff effective January 1, 2025 (up from 25% in some cases). Covers 16 tariff categories to support U.S. semiconductor investments under the CHIPS Act. Wafers for Semiconductor Manufacturing: Proposed 50% tariff (HTS 3818.00.00), as China accounts for 95% of global wafer capacity. Consumer Electronics: Includes laptops, monitors, smartphones, and video game consoles, many of which have faced tariffs since 2018 but were spared… --- ## Ukraine URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/ukraine/ Updated: 2026-01-18 Ukraine Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk TO KEEP THIS UKRAINE COVERAGE GOING: SUBSCRIBE to our YOUTUBE channel (- CLICK HERE -)!!! REPORTS & ANALYSIS To see the mapping from earlier period unavailable in the current mappings: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/ukraine-map-archive/ STRATEGIC MAP To access the DPA’s Ukraine War mapping, becoming a DPA Sergeant / Officer / General on DPA Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/defensepoliticsasia To get the lastest and most updated mapping, subscribe to the “DPA Officer” tier member on DPA Patreon or DPA Ko-Fi. Your support will allow the continued  coverage of the Ukraine War regardless any revenue issues from Youtube. Revenue is needed to maintain the coverage/mapping. Distance The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map. ARTICLES SITUATION OVERVIEW DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022) RUSSIA Recognise the independence of Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republics Recognise Crimea as Russian territory Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change) COMPROMISE Allow Ukraine to join the European Union De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv. Point of view RUSSIA “If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience.” Vladimir Putin President Russia 6 March 2022 … in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion. Point of view RUSSIA “(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime. (Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians. We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force” Vladimir Putin President Russia 23 February 2022 … after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics from “Ukrainian aggression.” In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia’s goal was not to occupy Ukraine. DIPLOMACY UKRAINE Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia Volodymyr Zelenskyy President Ukraine 24 February 2022 … announced in a televised statement. Point of view UKRAINE “No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands. But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations” Dmytro Kuleba Minister of Foreign Affairs Ukraine 13 September 2022 … in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity. DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022) UKRAINE “NATO Article 5” type security guarantee – guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel. Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected) Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk’s oblast No objection against joining European Union 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea’s future Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue COMPROMISE Pledge not to join any military alliances Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops Military exercises will require approval from guarantors Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons Point of view UKRAINE “Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it’s knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don’t want to be that president” Volodymyr Zelenskyy President Ukraine 8 March 2022 … in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east. Point of view NATO “We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous.” Jens Stoltenberg Secretary General NATO 4 March 2022 … speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrain… --- ## Ukraine URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/focus/ukraine/ Updated: 2026-08-11 Pilot Focus page. Perspective lanes will fill from the snippet pipeline. Deep dives link to DPA analysis. --- ## War Conflict Home URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/war-conflict-home/ Updated: 2022-08-05 War & Conflict DPA HOTSPOTS SELECTED REPORTS UKRAINE “RUSSIAN SPECIAL OPERATION” MYANMAR MILITARY COUP CRISIS ARTICLES --- ## YouTube URL: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/youtube/ Updated: 2026-08-11 DPA main channel and DPA War — professional showcase. --- # generated-by: joji-seo-aeo