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Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk

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REPORTS & ANALYSIS

STRATEGIC MAP

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SITREP (VIDEO)

Articles (Geopolitics)

SITUATION OVERVIEW

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

RUSSIA
  • Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
  • Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
  • Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
  • Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)

COMPROMISE

  • Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
  • De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

6 March 2022

... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.

(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.

We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

23 February 2022

... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."

In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.

DIPLOMACY

UKRAINE

Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

24 February 2022

... announced in a televised statement.

Point of view

UKRAINE

"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.

But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"

Dmytro Kuleba
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

13 September 2022

... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

UKRAINE
  • "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
  • Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
  • Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
  • No objection against joining European Union
  • 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
  • Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue

COMPROMISE

  • Pledge not to join any military alliances
  • Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
  • Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
  • Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons

Point of view

UKRAINE

"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.

The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

8 March 2022

... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.

Point of view

NATO

"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."

Jens Stoltenberg
Secretary General

NATO

4 March 2022

... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.

There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.

But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"

Joe Biden
President
United States

26 February 2022

... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."

Joe Biden
President
United States

23 February 2022

... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.

Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.

STRATEGIC PICTURE

BELARUS

Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus

agencies reports
Belarus

28 February 2022

... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.

Point of view

GEORGIA

"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.

This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"

Irakli Garibashvili
Prime Minister
Georgia

25 February 2022

... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .

Point of view

EUROPEAN UNION

"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.

This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.

We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."

Ursula von der Leyen
President
European Comission

24 February 2022

... at a press conference.

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