Donbas is the final warning from Putin
As the world buzzes with the news of Putin recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic + the decreed to OFFICIALLY deploy the Russian military into the 2 regions as “peacekeepers” – the headline calling this an invasion is actually a bit of a misnomer. You can’t invade what you already conquered; or so to speak…
The recognition of the independence of the region, something that I had alluded to in my last article – Russia will not invade Ukraine… unless… – is part of the same strategy taken by Russia in the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, which was a direct consequence of the plan to offer NATO membership to Georgia. Today we have the same, but with Ukraine.
This is however, in my opinion, not “an invasion of Ukraine”: Donbas was already effectively lost since the start of the “Ukrainian Civil War”. You can’t lose what you had already effectively lost control of; Ukraine had since trying to regain control for the past 7-8 years of what they had lost, by conquering back those lands. In a more accurate sense, Russia is simply officially announcing their backing of the rebels as opposed to the limited assistance/interventions previously.
Just like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Donetsk and Luhansk are recognized as independent countries before the Russian troops are marched in to clear out the national armies. Prior to that, Georgia had already lost control of the 2 regions. In 2008, Georgia fought alone against the might bear and had permanently lost the 2 rebel regions from their sovereignty. South Ossetia and Abkhazia remains “independent” today from Georgia.
The same WILL happen to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Note: I can hear the sigh and anger over my last few paragraphs through your monitor screen. Let me elaborate: if a government do not have full sovereign, administrative and military control over a piece of land – does that land actually belongs to this government? If you think Ukraine still “owns Donbas”, then I agree Taiwan (or all of Republic of China territory) belongs to People’s Republic of China, or Myanmar military junta legitimately represents the whole of Myanmar or your ex is still your lover.
“Claims” are just claims, if you cannot assert control, then you don’t control it. You already lost it. This is why the world challenges China’s claims on South China Sea by conducting freedom of navigation operations because the very inability to stop or militarily confront such operations would indicate China do not actually own or have sovereign rights/control over the South China Sea territory that they claimed – but China’s sovereignty over Tibet and Xinjiang is undisputed, despite these people were culturally, ethnically, and religiously incompatible with the rest of majority-Han Communist China.
In fact, Donetsk and Luhansk citizens celebrated the long awaited news; something they were expecting after witnessing Crimea joining Russia, and sustained the endless fighting against the Ukrainian government forces for nearly 8 years. The “cavalry” has finally arrived for them.
DONBAS IS LOST – THE PUNISHMENT FROM RUSSIA
The likelihood of Ukraine able to hold back the Russian forces is extremely unlikely. If Ukraine is not able to defeat Donetsk and Luhansk, with ragtag paramilitary and the supposed backup in “Russian volunteers” – I highly doubt Ukraine will be able to defeat the actual Russian military with the advanced armor, artillery…and now, with air cover.
Russian military moved in quickly into Donbas as we speak, as videos and photos of the “invasion” emerged in social media. Mobilisation of the local fighting force in rebel held Donetsk and Luhansk are also underway to prepare for their counteroffensive or offensive (depends on which side of the fence you are sitting on).
The recognition of the independence of the 2 rebel regions is an act that had dragged surprisingly long since the “Ukrainian Civil War” started in early 2014 – a good nearly 8 years since the official absorption of Crimea into the Russia Federation. Given how Ukraine was much weaker and clearly unsupported by the west then (or the west is clearly not ready to support Ukraine at all then) – it is thus clear that Putin never wanted to make this move, but purely “bought it” then as an insurance policy.
But here we are, Donetsk and Luhansk are effectively lost – and this is the punitive measure – the “punishment” from Russia against Ukraine for continuing to pursue NATO membership and not stepping back from it. The punishment will be the loss of the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk region, since as of now, Ukrainian military still controls more than half of the 2 previous oblasts after the failed Minsk Protocol (although not the major cities of these regions).
LIMITED WAR
If the “Russo-Georgian War” playbook is to be repeated, we will see the Russian-Rebel military pushing back Ukrainian forces all the way to the borders of both Lugansk and Donetsk as the first phase of the war.
With that succeeded, the Russian will likely punch a big hole in the frontline and incur further into Ukrainian territory outside of the two regions, should Ukraine military not heed the determination by Putin to grant the two “republics” their independence. Ukrainian military resistance against the Russian juggernaut will give Russia the “reasons” to invade into non-Donbas land to rout the Ukrainian military in order to establish a buffer zone between the “liberated land” and the Ukrainian forces.
Given what was done in Georgia, and looking at the map, it would be conceivable that Russia will drive towards Kharkiv from Luhansk border, and Dnipro (or less likely, Zaporizhzhia) from Donetsk border.
The incursions into Ukrainian territory outside of Lugansk and Donetsk will serve 2 main strategic purpose: first, to threaten Ukraine into a “surrender” by signing a ceasefire agreement with Russia and then do a symbolic retreat from “smaller Ukraine” (since the two territory would be effectively lost); and secondly, to display absolute military superiority to Ukraine as to deter Ukraine from going against Russia again in the future – to foreshadow what Russia could do in a future conflict.
But Russia do keep to their official narrative when comes to war. For example, despite Russia bordering Georgia, Russia did not launch a single land invasion from Russia soil directly into Georgia – they continue to stick to the narrative of securing the two rebel regions and attacks into Georgian territory only come through South Ossetia and Abkhazia. I would expect Russia to do the same in this new conflict. Russian military will unlikely invade from Russia or Belarus border into Ukrainian territory from the land.
BELARUS FACTOR
However, Russian airforce could attack Ukraine from Belarus’ military airbases – and Ukraine will find it hard pressed to actually send military jets or land forces into Belarus to attack Russian airforce assets on the ground – as it would give Russia AND Belarus the casus belli to declare war on Ukraine given that action would have been an act of war – widening the conflict in ways that Ukraine would not want and had sought to avoid by trying to join NATO at the first place. Not to mention there are stupid amount of Russian forces on the Belarus-Ukraine border to deter Ukraine for this very purpose.
As mentioned previously, I do not expect “an actual invasion of Ukraine” from Russia, for reasons I mentioned in my previous article (read here: Russia will not invade Ukraine… unless… ). Thus the Russian military in Belarus will not likely going to see action, with possible exception of the air force.
The Russian airforce in Belarus will operate much like how the Soviets flew air sorties from China into the Korean Peninsula during the Korean War. The United States led United Nations forces were reluctant to attack the air bases in China, in fear of widening the conflict – thus allowing free air raids that can only be intercepted outside of Chinese air space.
We will probably see this happening in this conflict with Ukraine airforce struggling to provide air cover in the east where the main fighting is, while struggling to cope with aerial incursion from the north from Belarus, a consistent threat which they can never eliminate without infringing into Belarus air space.
NATO PREPARING POPCORNS
All these will happen without NATO doing anything. Any form of military aid, I believe will be coming directly from individual countries like United Kingdom or United States – and even so, it will likely to be limited to supplies and weaponry to try to counter what the Russians will be deploying. I doubt there will be “boots on the ground”.
The reality is this: if NATO would not come to the aid of Ukraine today, then NATO will never accept Ukraine into it’s alliance as long as status quo remains (Russia being militarily effective and invasion threatened).
In public, NATO countries’ leaders did not have much of a choice, but to voice their “support” for Ukraine and condemning Russia as the aggressor – but none of them have the political appetite or even political will to either reject the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO outrightly, or to promise the membership to Ukraine.
I suspect, much like the situation in Georgia, NATO countries might actually be glad that they will no longer have to discuss the possibilities of accepting Ukraine into NATO and thus increase the actual chance of war with Russia by that very act.
NATO is a defensive military alliance (or so to speak), and their priorities is to actually prevent war by simply “existing and showing up”. It’s the deterrence factor that makes NATO very effective. As such, countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are now totally secured from any Russian military invasion. Russia do not dare go to war with NATO (Russia can’t win such a war).
Zelensky: “Important right now to see who our true friends are,”
DPA wonders who are their true friends too… Photo: Twitter@ChristopherJM
BLEAK
Ukraine’s geopolitical situation is bleak, and their geopolitical capital spent.
The West will not come to the aid of Ukraine, as they have an eye on China-Taiwan situation – which many experts had warned that a major war with Russia over Ukraine would spark an opportunity for China to launch a war against Taiwan – an analysis that DPA shares.
This is why Putin made the right calculus to press for a “permanent answer” to the question of Ukrainian NATO membership at this time. China had prepared and warned of war over Taiwan, but had likely resisted/delayed given the show of strength and will over the past year with a number of naval deployment from European powers. But if NATO folly itself into a war with Russia (which NATO would win… eventually), China would be given the ripe moment to bring forth their unification dream.
The conclusion of losing both Donbas and NATO membership seemed to be set, right from the beginning – although that would also meant that, nothing really changed with this new development. It is still status quo, of not able to control Donbas and not able to get accepted into NATO, just like it had been for the past 8 years.