Russia launches massive Avdiivka Offensive
Confirmation of the Russian Avdiivka Offensive
It is now officially confirmed that the Russian Avdiivka Offensive is underway. This critical information has been corroborated by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict.
“In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with forces of up to three battalions, with the support of tanks and armored vehicles, intensified offensive operations in the areas of Avdiivka, Tonenke, Keramik and Pervomaiske of the Donetsk oblast. Our defenders recaptured. They attacked the enemy and prevented the loss of lines and positions.”
https://t.me/landforcesofukraine/12809
DOUBLE PINCER
The offensive spans several fronts, with various attacks reported throughout the region. To better understand the situation, let’s break down the key developments:
- North: The attack towards Keramik in the north is reported by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Ukrainian forces are currently holding positions in Keramik and Novokalynove, but the situation remains fluid.
- Northern Pincer: Russian sources reported that the Russian forces entrenched themselves just outside Berdychi, to prepare for expected counterattack from the Ukrainians, after their successful assault the day before.
- North-east: A new attack has been reported near the Coke Plant region, with Russian forces attempting to gain control of this strategically significant area. The Ukrainians are fiercely defending this position to prevent the Russians from securing high ground and a vantage point over the northern part of Avdiivka.
- South of Avdiivka: Russian forces are positioned along a railway line, seemed to be pushing toward the southern part of Avdiivka. Reports also suggest a possible attack from the southwest, though its exact location remains unclear.
- South-west: Video footages had emerged showing massive assault towards Sjevene, north of Vodyane. Ukrainian Defense Ministry also reported Russian advance towards Tonenke.
Russian Strategy and Vulnerabilities
Russian forces are implementing a multifaceted strategy. They appear to be working on a major double-pincer on Avdiivka. Some of the forces are already preparing for a counterattack by Ukrainian forces. However, the Ukrainian response has yet to materialize, likely due to the overwhelming scale of the Russian offensive.
One key vulnerability for Ukrainian lies in the importance of the ONLY road leading out of Avdiivka. This road that goes through Lastochkyne and Orlivka could easily be cut off if either Russia takes Berdychi and Semenivka in the northern pincer, or Sjeverne and Tonenke in the southern pincer.
If the Russians manage to cut this road, Avdiivka would become operationally encircled.
The Current Offensive’s Implications
This Avdiivka offensive is a pivotal moment in the Ukraine conflict. If successful, it could negate many of the gains made by Ukrainian forces in their “Counter-Offensive” over the past half a year. If Ukraine loses Avdiivka, it could lead to a PR disaster for Ukraine, potentially prompting Western nations to reconsider their support.
This Russian offensive in Avdiivka potentially represents a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict – one that may possibly lead to a quick end to this war.
Full Report and Analysis: