Ukraine
Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk
REPORTS & ANALYSIS
Twenty-First Century Artillery: What Can We Learn From the War in Ukraine?
The war in Ukraine, as the first high-intensity near-symmetrical conflict... Read more →
Day 1000 Special: A Retrospection; Strategic Analysis
As the Ukraine war crosses its 1,000th day, we reflect... Read more →
Frontline Changes Report – Day 967-968 (17-18 October 2024)
Russian forces tried a blitz attack towards Viktorovka, which AGAIN,... Read more →
Ukraine War SITREP – Day 961, 11 October 2024
Russian forces had conquered Ostrivske, which is the final settlement... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 956 (6 October 2024)
Ukrainian forces expanded foothold by capturing the region between Novy... Read more →
STRATEGIC MAP
The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map.
SITREP (VIDEO)
Articles (Geopolitics)
Day 1000 Special: A Retrospection; Strategic Analysis
As the Ukraine war crosses its 1,000th day, we reflect... Read more →
The Actual Battle of Ukraine – Odessa
The crown jewel in Ukraine is Odessa. It’s the logistical... Read more →
Hamas-Israeli War 2023: Deep Analysis
The Surprise Attack by Hamas and Israel’s Response Israel finds... Read more →
Ukraine Seeks Western Assistance for Strikes on Iran and Syria
In a recent and startling development, Ukraine has made an... Read more →
POLAND WILL NO LONGER ARM UKRAINE, after Ukraine complains to WTO over grain ban in Poland
In a series of recent developments, tensions have flared between... Read more →
SITUATION OVERVIEW
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
- Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
- Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
- Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)
COMPROMISE
- Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
- De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Point of view
"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."
President
Russia
... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
Point of view
"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.
(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.
We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"
President
Russia
... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."
In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.
DIPLOMACY
Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia
President
Ukraine
... announced in a televised statement.
Point of view
"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.
But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine
... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
- Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
- Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
- No objection against joining European Union
- 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
- Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue
COMPROMISE
- Pledge not to join any military alliances
- Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
- Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
- Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons
Point of view
"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"
President
Ukraine
... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.
Point of view
"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."
NATO
... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.
Point of view
"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.
There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.
But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"
President
United States
... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.
Point of view
"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."
President
United States
... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.
Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.
STRATEGIC PICTURE
Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus
Belarus
... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.
Point of view
"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.
This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"
... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .
Point of view
"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.
This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.
We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."
President
European Comission
... at a press conference.
LATEST ON UKRAINE
General Staff of Ukraine Armed Forces: Russia did not land in Odessa
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that the information about the landing of the Russian troops in Odessa is false. The information is part of the press statement on UNIAN as they report on the Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “Today, February 24, at 5:00, the armed forces of the Russian Federation began intensive…
Putin announces “Special Operation” – multiple Ukrainian cities reported explosions
Explosions were reported across multiple cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Mariupol. There are also unverified reports that amphibious assault on Mariupol and Odessa. Mariupol is in Donetsk oblast. But if Russian troops lands in Odessa (which is west of Crimea), it would invalidate our assessment that this would just be a limited…
Donbas is the final warning from Putin
As the world buzzes with the news of Putin recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic + the decreed to OFFICIALLY deploy the Russian military into the 2 regions as “peacekeepers” – the headline calling this an invasion is actually a bit of a misnomer. You can’t invade what you…
Russia will not invade Ukraine… unless…
There are so much media hype and perhaps, even misinformation, on the “Ukraine Crisis” – as the western media narrative of an impending invasion of Ukraine by the Russia – the layman on the streets are not going to realise how far it is from the reality. Yes, Russia had massed a lot of forces…
[ AP ] Russia threatens retaliation if Ukraine demands not met
Russia warned Wednesday it would quickly take “retaliatory measures” if the U.S. and its allies reject its security demands and continue their “aggressive” policies, ratcheting up pressure on the West amid concerns that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly denied it has any such designs, but the United States and its NATO…
UAE and Ukraine providing military support to Ethiopia in civil war against Tigray Defense Forces
According to an exclusive report by Al Jazeera, they had discovered by satellite images that Ethiopia is receiving extensive support in their fight against forces from the northern Tigray region. In their investigation, there were more than 90 flights between United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia between September and November 2021. A Spanish firm is…
Ukraine discovered to be exporting aircraft parts to the Tatmadaw
Ukraine has developed deep links to the Myanmar military, with arms exports and technology transfers continuing, even after the Myanmar military has committed mass murder amounting to atrocity crimes following its illegitimate coup attempt. According to Ukrainian export data, accessed via Import Genius, Motor Sich exported engines and parts to Myanmar twice since the military’s…
[ The Guardian ] Ukraine denies minister’s claims of hijacked Afghanistan evacuation flight
A Ukrainian minister has claimed a passenger jet meant to evacuate people fleeing Afghanistan to Ukraine was hijacked at gunpoint and flown instead to Iran, in an unconfirmed incident that was later denied by his own government. Ukraine’s deputy minister for foreign affairs, Yevhen Yenin, said armed hijackers seized the plane at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai international airport,…
[ Politico ] White House freezes Ukraine military package that includes lethal weapons
“The Biden White House has temporarily halted a military aid package to Ukraine that would include lethal weapons, a plan originally made in response to aggressive Russian troop movements along Ukraine’s border this spring. The aid package would be worth up to $100 million, according to four people familiar with internal deliberations. The National Security…