Ukraine
Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk
REPORTS & ANALYSIS
[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 804 (7/5): UKRAINE ended Russian breakout phase; RF restart ops at Orikhiv
Lack of progress over the Orthodox Easter and Russian President’s... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 799 (2 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces expanded control over Kyslivka slightly, signifying... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 798 (1 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces made progress north of... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 797 (30 April 2024)
Watch the Full Report here: https://youtu.be/BVpZyZcT2rk KREMINNA FRONT Ukrainian forces... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 793 (26 April 2024)
AVDIIVKA FRONT Ukrainian forces got massively ejected from eastern Novokalynove... Read more →
STRATEGIC MAP
The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map.
SITREP (VIDEO)
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SITUATION OVERVIEW
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
- Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
- Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
- Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)
COMPROMISE
- Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
- De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Point of view
"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."
President
Russia
... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
Point of view
"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.
(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.
We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"
President
Russia
... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."
In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.
DIPLOMACY
Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia
President
Ukraine
... announced in a televised statement.
Point of view
"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.
But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine
... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
- Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
- Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
- No objection against joining European Union
- 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
- Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue
COMPROMISE
- Pledge not to join any military alliances
- Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
- Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
- Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons
Point of view
"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"
President
Ukraine
... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.
Point of view
"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."
NATO
... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.
Point of view
"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.
There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.
But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"
President
United States
... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.
Point of view
"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."
President
United States
... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.
Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.
STRATEGIC PICTURE
Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus
Belarus
... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.
Point of view
"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.
This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"
... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .
Point of view
"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.
This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.
We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."
President
European Comission
... at a press conference.
LATEST ON UKRAINE
[ Bryansk, Russia ] 2 Russian military base/depot attacked – massive fire/explosion reported
2 Massive explosion and fire is reported in Bryansk. Both locations are within the same city and both are military installation / military storage facilities. Full Report:
Introduction to DPA CSI (Country Stability Index) – starring Ukraine.
Have you ever felt like, “I don’t really understand what’s the big deal” after reading a newspaper headline? Or have you wondered how f**ked is a country actually is after seeing the mainstream media (MSM) reported a massive riot in a certain country? If you think, news headlines just not giving you a clear picture…
[ Kyiv Front ] Russian forces “disappeared” from around Kyiv; Ukraine recaptures Hostomel – Bucha+++
Ukrainian forces recapture large swaths of territory after a massive Russian retreat around Kyiv region. Full Report:
[ Luhansk Front ] Luhansk PR Forces captures Ivanivka and Novosadove
“Briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (28.03.2022): Units of the Lugansk People’s Republic during the offensive advanced 5 kilometers, captured the settlements of Ivanovka, Novosadovoe and reached the line of Novolyublino, Terny.”
[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces clear out the bulge north-east of Avdivvka
Interesting thing to note, which I forgot to mention is how – this progress is by the Russian forces, and not by the Donetsk Republic Forces. Maybe why the progress is rather huge.
[ Kyiv Front ] Russia strike Kyiv fuel depot – signal that Russia will not attack south of Kyiv
Russian forces had launched Kalibr cruise missiles at a fuel depot just south of Kyiv, causing a massive blaze and huge fire. Briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (25.03.2022) : On the evening of March 24, high-precision sea-based cruise missiles “Caliber” struck a fuel base in the village of KALINOVKA near KIEV. The largest…
[ Battle of Mariupol ] Chechen forces captures city admin building and declare eastern half captured
But another source contradicts the claim: “Russian units of the Marine Corps of the Russian Federation, the 9th regiment and the 107th battalion of the DPR nm, with the support of the Somali battalion and Chechen security forces, reached the perimeter of the neo-Nazi fortified area in the industrial zone of the Azov-Stal plant. Thus,…
[ Battle of Izyum ] Izyum is now under full Russian control: Russian Ministry of Defense
“Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry: By the morning of March 24, the units of the Russian Armed Forces took control Izyum city in Kharkov region” Full Report:
[ Battle of Mariupol ] Ukrainian forces refused surrender offer; DPR Ldr confirms Azovstal not taken
And Russian forces started using the port at Berdyansk for reinforcement and resupply. Full Report:
[ Donetsk Front ] DPR / Russian Forces captures Verkhnotoretske & Solodke
DPR / Russian forces continues to push forward at multiple points cross the entire front. Full Report:
[ Kyiv Front ] Ukrainian forces blow last bridge to Irpin; Russia strikes a section of shopping mall
Ukrainian forces blow up the last remaining intact bridge between Irpin and Kyiv – signaling a possible intention to abandon the Irpin position. Russian forces strikes a shopping center that was used as an artillery base by the Ukrainian forces in northern Kyiv. Full Report:
[ Mykolaiv-Kryvih Rih front ] Fighting reported at Oleksandrivka; Russian out of patience @ Kherson
And new information on Russian positions south of Kryvih Rih Full report:
[ Battle of Mariupol ] DPR forces captured the Airport; Northeast residential region under DPR now
Source for the North-east region: Evacuee from Mariupol informed contact of a DPA viewer who was living in this region – whom then informed me. Full Report:
[ Donetsk Front ] Continued offensive east of Velyka Novosilka: R captured Shaktarske & Novoukrainka
Russian forces continue on the gains, and captured Shaktarske and Novoukrainka.
[ Kyiv Front ] Ukrainian Force reportedly conducted counteroffensive at Bucha – Hostomel region
However, the offensive is reportedly repelled by the Russian Forces.
[ Kharkiv Front ] Russian Forces recaptures Derhachi; Ukrainian entrenchment reported at Zolochiv
Russian “spread” on the map is revised accordingly due to the entrenched position at Zolochiv Full Report:
[ Mykolaiv Front ] Ukrainian Forces captured Posad-Pokrovske; Mala Shestirnya falls to the Russians
…and the Russian fleet showed up on the horizon of Odesa again… Full Report:
[ Luhansk Front ] LPR / Russian Forces captured Rubizhne; defender retreats to Severodonetsk
And fighting continues to be reported at Popasna. Full Report:
[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces capture Marinka, Prechysticka & Novomaiorske; recaptured 2 village
Briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (17.03.2022) : The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, continuing the successful offensive, took control of the settlements of Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka. The advance for the day was 10 kilometers. Briefing of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (17.03.2022) : Units of the Donetsk People’s Republic are…
[ Siege of Mariupol ] Russian made progress towards center / Novosyolovka; Dramatheatre bombed
According to the presence of journalists in the north-west part of Mariupol, it can be ascertained that Russian forces had made inroads or even captured Novosyolovka. Drama theatre of Mariupol bombed, but both sides blamed each other on the explosion. Full Report:
[ Donetsk Front ] Donetsk forces advancing North-East of Avdiivka, capturing 4 towns
“Statement of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (16.03.2022): Units of the Donetsk People’s Republic, developing the offensive, took control of the settlements of MIKHAYLOVKA, STAVKA, BOTMANKA, VASILYEVKA and are fighting for Verkhnetoretske.” Full Report:
[ Battle of Severodonetsk ] Fighting reported now in North-west, North-east and Eastern side of city
Rubizhne is now in danger of getting fully encircled and cut off from their retreat. Full Report:
[ Battle of Izyum+ ] Fighting reported around Studenok and Yaremivka; explosions at Bohorodynchne
“Battle of Slavyansk, artillery is working, the bridge is blown up The operation to liberate Slavyansk begins, the battle thunders in the village of Bogorodichnoye, which is 15 km from Slavyansk, local residents write. Artillery is working, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Nazbats blew up the bridge. It is also reported that there…
[ Siege of Mariupol ] Spetsnaz cleared city perimeter of Ukrainian forces; Mass Evacuation underway
This is seriously good news. [ Mariupol Evacuation/Humanitarian Information by Russia ] “Mariupol has been in an extremely difficult situation for a long time. Today, as a result of effective actions, the formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic, with the support of units of the Russian Armed Forces, have surgically destroyed almost all firing points…
[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces continue their eastern flank advance; capturing 5 villages/towns
Continuing on the breakthrough on the eastern flank of Ukrainian’s Velyka Novosilka line, Russian forces continue advancing forward, capturing Slavne, Taramchuk, Stepne, Solodke and Vodyane.
[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces burst out of the east side Velyka Novosilka Line – captured 4 towns
Major breakthrough by the Russian forces as they breaks the entire eastern half of the Velyka Novosilka – Volodymyrivka line, capturing Blahodatne, Volodymyrivka, Mykilske and Pavlivka… and possibly captured the town of Vodyane.
[ Luhansk Front ] Russian Forces captures Popasna; supply line to Severodonetsk under threat
Russian Forces captured Popasna and now in striking distance of Bakhmut. Not covered in the video, is that the Russian Forces can also go north to encircle Severodonetsk & Lysychansk – although we think they will go for Bakhmut as a priority target.
[ Siege of Mariupol ] The Curious case of Mariupol-bound Humanitarian Trucks.
Evacuation Buses cannot enter… but these heroic trucks and truck drivers are expected to go into Mariupol… Full Report:
[ Donetsk Front ] Corrected the exact front line; Novodonetske and Novomaiorske in Ukrainian control
Due to my misunderstanding of the Russian Defense Ministry report yesterday, I have corrected the frontline with the latest information announced today. Full report:
[ Mykolaiv Front ] Russian Forces converged on Novovorontsovka
Russian forces are reportedly in the process of capturing Novovorontsovka. The lack of “battle” words seemed to suggest little to no resistance in the small city / town. Full Report:
[ Kyiv Front ] Battle rages east of Brovary / Kyiv
Not too sure who is the party that is on offensive (we are currently assuming its the Ukrainians), fighting is now happening close to where the Russians had entrenched themselves east of Kyiv, at their Syitylnya – Bogdanivka – Zalissya line. Battle is reported at Hoholiv as well just 8km south of that defense line.…
[ #Donetsk Front ] Massive Frontal Assault across open land; First major battle about to break out!
Looks like the #coldsnap had arrive just in time for the Russian to make a massive push on a wide front across open farmlands. After the earlier report where I mention that took a “line” via a wide front, and they have advanced quickly arrive right at the Ukrainian defense line from #VelykaNovosilka to #Volodymyrivka…
[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces captures 3 more villages/town to link up with the Crimean forces
Latest report from the Russian Defense Ministry indicates that the gap between the Crimean Force and the Donetsk Force is now closing. With 2 more villages/town to go – the Donetsk Force will officially link up with the forces that came from #Crimea. Ukrainian line along Yevhenivka – Petrivka – Kyrylivka – Novoandriivka – Valeryanivka…
[ Mykolaiv Front ] Russians running riot in Mykolaiv oblast; heading to Nikopol; Voznesensk fallen?
Crazy shit is happening down at Mykolaiv region as Russians found a way around all the entrenched positions by the Ukrainians – connecting all 3 forward operating base. 2 separate forces are reported to be heading towards Nikopol and Novovorontsovka right now.
[ Battle of Mariupol ] Russian / DPR forces making inroads from both east and west edge of the city
Official statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the capture of a few neighborhoods in Mariupol, namely: Vynohradne, Lyapino, Naydyonovka, Zapadny and Avozskyy. They also announce that the forces had entered Azovstal. Full Report: https://youtu.be/OZn6Voym3b8
[ Zaporizhzhia Front ] This is the Zaporizhzhia Line
The existence of this defense line is mentioned by a Russian OSINT analyst, that named this 4 towns/locations as a single defense line: Kam’yans’ke, Orikhiv, Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka. And I’m naming this defense line: the Zaporizhzhia Line. The final obstacle preventing the Russian from cutting a major route of communication from Zaporizhzhia to the…
[ Mykolaiv Front ] Showdown with Russian forces looms as city prepares for street fighting
Reports are coming out from Russian sources that the Russian forces are creeping towards the city of Mykolaiv. This is also corroborated with the actions by the defenders of the city as they prepares molotov cocktails and tires in the middle of major streets (to set on fire during battle). Full Report:
[ Battle of Mariupol ] Donetsk Forces captures Vostochnyy; Fighting reported at Ilyichy & Osaviakhim
Heavy fighting continues in Mariupol without significant progress; with the exception that Vostochnyy microdistrict is reportedly taken by the Donetsk Militia force. Full Report:
[ Kharkiv Front ] Major counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Forces around Kharkiv
Finally some “good news” from the Ukrainian side; seems to be linked to the our reports on some Ukrainian offensive new Balakliya, the Ukrainians had secured Slobazhanske, Donets, Andriivka as well as capturing Chuhuiv and Derhachi from the Russians.
[ Donbass Front ] Russian offense on wide front southwest of Donetsk
Russian forces continues to progress on a wide front in a frontal assault against the East Army; pincer developing around Severodonetsk and a major fight for Hulyaipole which could affect the life and death of the Ukraine East Army. Details + Analysis in the video:
[ Al Mayadeen ] 450 Arab and foreign extremists from Idlib arrive in Ukraine
Close to 450 extremist Arab and foreign nationals have arrived in Ukraine from Idlib to fight against Russia’s forces, less than only three days after they left Syria, passing through Turkey. Relatives of extremists that have arrived in Ukraine told Sputnik that senior fighters from terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the rebranded version of Jabhat Al-Nusra, i.e Al-Qaeda)…
Ukraine President Zelenskyy soften stance in interview with ABC
In an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.…
[ #Mykolaiv Front ] Russian Forward Operating Base revealed; Ukr not going on counter : blow bridge
Not much action on the Mykolaiv Front, but we have information of where the Russians’ “entrenched positions” are in Mykolaiv – giving us at least some clarity as to the situation on the ground in the Mykolaiv front. Ukrainian forces also blew up a bridge south of Mykolaiv to take out one of the southern…
[ Battle of Mariupol ] New Information on fighting locations; Sartana captured by DPR / Rus forces
We went from nearly no information on the battle at Mariupol to suddenly, quite a bit of information. In short: Sartana captured by Russians; Azov Battalion fired at Ukrainian Troops; Fighting at 5 different locations in the city; 150 civilians evacuated to Russian position in the east. Watch the youtube quick update for full details:
New Russian Narratives: 3 New Justifications For War – in the middle of the war
In the past 24 to perhaps 48 hours, 3 major accusations or narrative had been thrown up by the Russian side – all of them can be good enough to be justification of war on top of the official reasons Putin had spelt out. The 3 new narratives are: Ukraine President Zelenskyy alluded in his…
Evacuation of civilians from Mariupol failed again for a 2nd time – both sides blame each other
Convoy of buses left Zaporizhzhia and with the details of evacuation being announced by the Ukrainian side, this evacuation of Mariupol looks to be very promising. But somehow, this evacuation failed again. According to the Ukrainians: The Russians again disrupted the opening of the humanitarian corridor. The humanitarian convoy of 8 trucks, as well as…
[ Donbass Front ] Humanitarian Updates; Mariupol evacuation resumes on a reroute from Nikolske
After the Mariupol evacuation seemed to be dead on arrival after the Mariupol city council unilaterally postponed the evacuation – the Ukrainian govt announced that the humanitarian corridor is open again and evacuation will be carried out today, on mostly the same route, but with a reroute away from Nikolske (probably due to fighting).