Ukraine
Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk
REPORTS & ANALYSIS
[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 804 (7/5): UKRAINE ended Russian breakout phase; RF restart ops at Orikhiv
Lack of progress over the Orthodox Easter and Russian President’s... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 799 (2 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces expanded control over Kyslivka slightly, signifying... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 798 (1 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces made progress north of... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 797 (30 April 2024)
Watch the Full Report here: https://youtu.be/BVpZyZcT2rk KREMINNA FRONT Ukrainian forces... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 793 (26 April 2024)
AVDIIVKA FRONT Ukrainian forces got massively ejected from eastern Novokalynove... Read more →
STRATEGIC MAP
The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map.
SITREP (VIDEO)
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SITUATION OVERVIEW
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
- Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
- Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
- Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)
COMPROMISE
- Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
- De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Point of view
"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."
President
Russia
... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
Point of view
"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.
(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.
We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"
President
Russia
... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."
In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.
DIPLOMACY
Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia
President
Ukraine
... announced in a televised statement.
Point of view
"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.
But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine
... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
- Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
- Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
- No objection against joining European Union
- 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
- Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue
COMPROMISE
- Pledge not to join any military alliances
- Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
- Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
- Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons
Point of view
"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"
President
Ukraine
... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.
Point of view
"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."
NATO
... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.
Point of view
"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.
There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.
But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"
President
United States
... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.
Point of view
"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."
President
United States
... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.
Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.
STRATEGIC PICTURE
Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus
Belarus
... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.
Point of view
"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.
This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"
... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .
Point of view
"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.
This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.
We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."
President
European Comission
... at a press conference.
LATEST ON UKRAINE
[ Luhansk Front] Russian forces capture Novodruzhesk, Lysychansk City Center & City Council Building
Full Report: 00:00 Intro00:33 Russian forces captured Novodruzhesk and pushed into northern area of Lysychansk01:00 City Center of Lysychansk is captured by Russian forces02:34 No indication that Russian forces capture the entire city04:12 Frontlines of Russian forces in the southern part of Lysychansk05:49 50% of Lysychansk is captured by Russian forces06:35 Ukrainian forces evacuation/retreat is…
[ Luhansk Front ] RF forces captured Shypylivka, Matrosskaya & Privolnjanskaya mine & Gelatine Plant
Full Report: 00:00 Intro00:10 Russian Pryvillya force overrun Privolnjanskaya mine and captured Shypylivka – fighting at Berezovsky Chalk Quarry01:32 Fighting at Novodruzhesk – attack corrected to be from the north and likely not from the south-west.02:30 Comments on the city center pincer04:21 LPR Tank Division ordered to pushed to the edge of Novodruzhesk05:11 Russian MoD…
[ Luhansk Front ] Russian forces captured Zolotarivka, Spirne & Pavlohrad; Pincer on the city center
Full Report: 00:00 Intro00:18 Russian forces captured Zolotarivka and Spirne; Bila Hora secured01:01 Developments at Pryvillya02:34 Fighting reported at Novodruzhesk03:56 Russian forces at Concrete product plan and Melnikov Mine04:43 Russian forces crossed river and captured Lysychansk Heliport06:24 Pincer will create encirclement of central and southern Lysychansk07:26 Russian forces captured Pavlohrad09:01 Updates on other parts of…
[ Odessa Front ] Russian forces abandon Snake Island – the FULL STORY + DPA analysis/assessment
Full Report: 00:00 Intro01:04 Shelling reported at Snake Island01:35 Russia MoD Statement03:36 “The War On Fakes” post shared by Russian MoD06:27 Pro-Russian analyst “Rybar” analysis/assessment08:52 Sequence of events of Snake Island from Day 1 till Today15:19 Ukrainian Armed Forces Plan for Snake Island15:51 Ukrainian Southern Command concedes they cannot control Snake Island now16:49 Snake Island…
[ Odessa Front ] Battle of Snake Island 2.0 ; Angry strikes on Rus’ Gas platforms; Russia MoD talks~
On June 20, at about 05.00 AM, the Kiev regime attempted to capture Snake Island. The plan of the operation composed by the Kiev regime supposed to launch massive air and artillery attacks at Snake Island, to disembark troops and capture it. The air attack has involved more than 15 Ukrainian attack and reconnaissance unmanned…
[ Southern Front ] Patrick Lancaster reporting geolocated @ Novovoznesenske; Ukr captured Tavrijske
Geolocation of school featured in Patrick Lancaster’s video: 47.43272, 33.5981 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQuxXKoaMQI Full Report:
