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Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk

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REPORTS & ANALYSIS

STRATEGIC MAP: 1 MARCH 2024

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SITREP (VIDEO)

Articles (Geopolitics)

SITUATION OVERVIEW

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

RUSSIA
  • Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
  • Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
  • Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
  • Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)

COMPROMISE

  • Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
  • De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

6 March 2022

... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.

(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.

We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

23 February 2022

... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."

In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.

DIPLOMACY

UKRAINE

Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

24 February 2022

... announced in a televised statement.

Point of view

UKRAINE

"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.

But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"

Dmytro Kuleba
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

13 September 2022

... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

UKRAINE
  • "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
  • Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
  • Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
  • No objection against joining European Union
  • 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
  • Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue

COMPROMISE

  • Pledge not to join any military alliances
  • Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
  • Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
  • Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons

Point of view

UKRAINE

"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.

The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

8 March 2022

... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.

Point of view

NATO

"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."

Jens Stoltenberg
Secretary General

NATO

4 March 2022

... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.

There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.

But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"

Joe Biden
President
United States

26 February 2022

... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."

Joe Biden
President
United States

23 February 2022

... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.

Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.

STRATEGIC PICTURE

BELARUS

Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus

agencies reports
Belarus

28 February 2022

... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.

Point of view

GEORGIA

"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.

This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"

Irakli Garibashvili
Prime Minister
Georgia

25 February 2022

... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .

Point of view

EUROPEAN UNION

"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.

This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.

We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."

Ursula von der Leyen
President
European Comission

24 February 2022

... at a press conference.

LATEST ON UKRAINE

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 727-729, 20-22 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 23, 2024

Battle of Ivaniske begins as Russian forces storms into the eastern part of Ivanivske, while Ukrainian forces lost control of the entire NE outskirt of Ivanivske. ~Bakhmut Front Russian forces entered Sjeverne from the east after the entire Ukraine line between Sjeverne and Avdiivka City collapsed. ~Avdiivka Front Russian forces progressively expanded control west of…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 724, 17 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 18, 2024

A Russian forces assault is geolocated on a treeline south of Robotyne. This location is previously understood to be under Ukrainian control. This confirms the reports that an offensive operation is under way against Robotyne. Current rumors include Russian forces reaching the western outskirt of Robotyne. But this is not yet corroborated by any of…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 722, 15 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 16, 2024

In the northern fronts of the Battle of Avdiivka, Russian forces head both west and south from the breakthrough west of Avdiivka city, in the direction of Lastochkyne and the final dirt road out of the city. Russian forces also pushed north from the entry point of the Lastochkyne road into the Avdiivka City, into…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 721, 14 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 15, 2024

Russian forces are geolocated to be attack SE of Pobjeda – their presence confirm Russian forces had taken grounds in that area, pushing towards the south of Pobjeda. ~ Donetsk Front Russian forces geolocated on the western outskirt of Marinka, invalidating Ukrainian claims, and corroborating Russian claims of the frontline. ~Donetsk Front New development is…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 720, 13 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 14, 2024

Russian forces captured a large swath of territory along the western road of the city in North Avdiivka, effectively cutting the Ukrainian forces in the rest of the city away from resupply and reinforcement. Operational encirclement is now official. There is still a small road off the Khimik neighborhood for their last chance to escape…

Russian advanced at Bakhmut Front and Donetsk Front – 12 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 13, 2024

Russian forces advanced in the north of Ivanivske, threatening to envelope the settlement from the direction, expanding the frontlines – that would then allow the Russians to start invading into the town itself. Full report here: [ Bakhmut Front ] Verge of the beginning of Battle of Ivanivske; if Russia keep pushing here Russian forces…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 718, 11 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 12, 2024

Russian forces continue to expand the zone of control in the northern part of Avdiivka city, in the direction of where reinforcement is expected to come (from the road via Lastochkyne). Reinforcement/resupply is now not expected to be able to pass through to the rest of the Avdiivka city as a result. Frontline to the…

Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 717, 10 Feb 2024

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | February 11, 2024

Russian forces continues its daily advances in the northern part of Avdiivka as the Ukrainian defense has entirely crumbled (given the fact that Russia could advance this much daily) The progress is faster than what happened during the Battle of Bakhmut, objectively speaking. Russian forces pushes south, instead of west, probably due to incoming Ukrainian…

DPA War Expectation Guide (1 Nov 2023)

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | November 1, 2023

Not all wars are created equal. And not all actors are fighting the same war, despite they are in the same battle. Manage your expectations, and stop being surprised/outraged.

Russia launches massive Avdiivka Offensive

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 12, 2023

Confirmation of the Russian Avdiivka Offensive It is now officially confirmed that the Russian Avdiivka Offensive is underway. This critical information has been corroborated by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. “In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy, with forces of up to three battalions, with the support of tanks…

Hamas-Israeli War 2023: Deep Analysis

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 8, 2023

The Surprise Attack by Hamas and Israel’s Response Israel finds itself once again plunged into a war with the Palestinians, and this time, it’s Hamas that initiated the hostilities. The surprise attack on Shemini Atzeret / Simchat Torah, a national holiday day in Israel, a day when Israelis were not expecting such aggression, sent shockwaves…

Ukraine Seeks Western Assistance for Strikes on Iran and Syria

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 3, 2023

In a recent and startling development, Ukraine has made an unusual appeal to its Western allies, including NATO and the EU, requesting support for launching missile strikes on Iran and Syria. This extraordinary request has left international observers grappling with its potential consequences and the motivations driving Ukraine’s decision. The genesis of this appeal traces…

POLAND WILL NO LONGER ARM UKRAINE, after Ukraine complains to WTO over grain ban in Poland

By DPA NewsDesk | September 21, 2023

In a series of recent developments, tensions have flared between Ukraine and several European Union member states, leading to significant economic and political repercussions. On September 15th, the European Commission announced the termination of the import ban on grain from Ukraine. This decision marked the culmination of a previous agreement made in May by the…

Leadership Changes in Ukrainian Defense Ministry amid Ongoing Conflict

By DPA NewsDesk | September 5, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a change in the leadership of the country’s Defense Ministry, citing the need for a fresh approach in dealing with the ongoing conflict with Russia. In a video message shared on Telegram, Zelensky informed the public of his decision to replace Oleksiy Reznikov, the former defense minister, with Rustem…

Reality’s Revenge in Ukraine – Why the Lacklustre Ukrainian Counteroffensive is a Global Threat to the US

By Oleg Yanovsky | August 20, 2023

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Implications of Exodus of Soviet-Era Weaponry Around the World to Ukraine

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | August 16, 2023

Since the beginning of the Ukraine War, all the former Soviet countries had been ejecting their soviet weapons to Ukraine, as military aid – and with the promise of free/discounted replacement with western/american models of similar, but modern type of the same weapons. As the war drags on, European Soviet weapons are exhausted, but an…

The Second Pacific War

By Nikolaos Passalis | July 10, 2023

This article is part one of a two-part series. Read the 2nd part here: https://defensepoliticsasia.com/the-second-mexican-american-war/ There is, today, in Washington, a schism occurring between the major factions that operate within the American halls of power. On the one hand, we are presented with the stereotypical American politician, the chest-beating “Wilsonian Internationalist“, they who insist on…

Beyond the Ukraine Russian Conflict and the Implication and Consequences to Europe.

By Kyle Toh | May 23, 2023

Current Sitrep The current Ukraine War has lasted almost 500 days and the end is yet in sight. The Russians are constantly trying to overwhelmed the Ukraine Forces in the Russian quest to “liberate” the Russians in Ukraine. Before the collapse of the U.S.S.R., Ukraine was part of the U.S.S.R., as such, it is no…

[ Bakhmut Front ] PRIGOZHIN/WAGNER ANNOUNCE CAPTURE OF BAKHMUT; Not acknowledged by Ukraine side yet

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | May 21, 2023

Latest Russian frontline at Bakhmut City. Rybar’s mapping (pro-russian) had it extended well to the tree lines west of Bakhmut City. Russian forces are already preparing defense lines to defend the city. Ukrainian mappings had not caught up nor even acknowledged Wagner’s claims. Last update still talking about fighting at SW corner of Bakhmut. Rumors…

UKRAINE LAUNCH BAKHMUT OFFENSIVE – Huge amount of arty at Kherson; Zaporizhzhia offensive imminent

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | May 3, 2023

Update on Ukrainian Offensive: Ukraine deployed massive amount of artillery units along the Dnipro river in the Kherson Front with target acquisition missions supported by Bayraktar drones in Odessa. Ukrainian forces continue to gather their forces in Zaporizhzhia, and it looks like they are very close to completing their preparation; at least that what the…

[ Bakhmut ] UKRAINE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE – in the NWW part of city; Ukraine counter offensive begun

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | May 3, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian forces launched their counter offensive in the Bakhmut Front as the Ukrainian “last line of defense” in the Northwest-West (NWW) part of Bakhmut began to be under siege. Ukrainian counterattacked from Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka. In the NWW part of Bakhmut where the low-rise residential area, holds the…

Did UN voted to recognise Russian aggression on Ukraine?

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | May 3, 2023

This vote screenshot went viral on the pro-ukraine info space. But do you know what they are actually voting on? Is it really a vote on recognising Russian Aggression on Ukraine? Let me show you, you make own conclusion: Let me show you: Cooperation between the United Nations and the Council of Europe The General…

UKRAINE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS REPORTED AT AVDIIVKA & BAKHMUT FRONT – Zaporizhzhia Offensive Imminent!

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | May 1, 2023

Update on Ukrainian Counter Offensive: Reports of Ukrainian forces deployed into the forward regions of the Zaporizhzhia Front at Orikhiv, Shcherbaky, Bilohirya, Charivne and Hulyaipole. Ukrainian offensive operations are reported on the 29th April happening concurrently at the Avdiivka and Bakhmut Front. Ukrainian forces attacked Vodyane in 2 different waves west of Avdiivka city, while…

RUSSIAN KILL BOX WORKING AS INTENDED – Ukrainian forces handicapping themselves with their strategy

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 29, 2023

Update on Russian Offensive: Russia’s Winter Offensive, transited into Spring Offensive – and its still ongoing – despite the fact the mainstream media had entirely forgotten about it with the hype mainly focusing on the impending Ukrainian Spring Offensive. Russian forces continues to hold their lines, bracing for the Ukrainian offensive, while pounding on any…

[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER FORCES CLOSED UP ON THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF “THE CITADEL” – Fighting in the North

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 29, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Latest reports suggest that the Russian forces have captured the entire garage area as well as the area around the Bakhmut Medical College. As a result, the Russian forces has effectively closed up the entire eastern surrounding of the western high-rise neighborhood, aka the Bakhmut Citadel. Fighting resumed on the…

[ BAKHMUT ] “BACK TO THE KEEP!!!” – Ukrainian forces abandon frontlines to the last defense line

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 27, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Massive changes to the frontlines as information came from all sources (pro-ukr, pro-rus, neutral) – that the Ukrainian forces has conducted withdrawn from the current active frontlines within Bakhmut. Given the tactical situation within Bakhmut, it looks like the Ukrainian forces has now fallen back to their last line of…

Singapore’s position on Russia-Ukraine War & it’s implication

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 25, 2023

Transcript from Singapore Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong’s speech in Parliament The war in Ukraine has been deadlocked for over a year, with no good outcome in sight. Neither side can win, nor can either afford to lose. In fact, things have been at a stalemate since last November. The Ukrainians are understandably reluctant to…

PRIGOZHIN: MUD NOT DRY YET – Ukraine land South of Kherson; Heavy probing in Kupyansk-Svatove Front

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 25, 2023

Update on Ukrainian Counter Offensive: Wagner PMC’s boss, Prigozhin gave insight on the environmental situation that the ground currently is still very muddy, and it would be another 10 days (from 22 April) before the ground would be dry. The reason why the Ukrainians have yet to launch their offensive. Ukrainian forces however are not…

[ BAKHMUT ] WW1-STYLE FIGHTING ON KHROMOVE ROAD – Russians capture high-rises West of train station

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 24, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces captured high rise buildings that previous formed a formidable defense lines west of the Bakhmut Railway Station no.2. This complicates the defensive posture of the Ukrainian forces within Bakhmut. From the north, Russian forces begun their attack into the garage region; while still trying to move towards the…

[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER CAPTURE EVERYTHING EAST OF RAILWAY – Khromove road cut; Ukr counter SW of Bakhmut

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 20, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Latest geolocation from Bakhmut City suggest that the Ukrainian forces had entirely withdrawn from the eastern side of the railway line that goes through the center of Bakhmut City. Russian forces continue to make incremental progress in the northern frontlines as the Ukrainian forces are making a stand in the…

Ukrainian Misinformation Telegram Network discovered by Russian hackers

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 20, 2023

This is the link to the report by the 3 Russian hacker group (Joker DPR, Beregini, NemeZida) that discovered the entire Ukrainian network of “Russian” telegram channels that the Ukrainians used to publish misinformation as well as solicit money “for the Russian troops”. https://nemez1da.ru/rassledovaniya/strong-em-u-volk-v-ovechej-shkure-u-em-strong/ Unfortunately, I am unable to open the website. I bet many…

[ BAKHMUT ] NORTHERN FRONTLINE COLLAPSED – Railway Station confirmed captured by Russian forces

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 15, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: The NW, NNW Bakhmut frontline suffered a catastrophic collapse as Russian forces broke through and captured most of the NW districts. The industrial area were the grain elevator is, as well as the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is confirmed to be captured by Russian forces. The Ukrainian forces is holding…

REINFORCEMENT TO BAKHMUT DENIED – Wagner & VDV forces enters Bohdanivka; Railway station disputes

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 13, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: The information of capture of the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is rolled back by DeepStateUA, as the station remains under the gray zone, with fighting still ongoing in the area. With the waning Ukrainian artillery support, Russian forces pressed their advantage on Khromove and Ivanivske. First reports of Russian forces…

[ Zaporizhzhia ] RUSSIA TOOK OUT 2 HIMARS AT ORIKHIV – Heavy bombardment all around Orikhiv region

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 11, 2023

Update from the Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian forces reportedly bombarded a warehouse next to the train station at Orikhiv with Smerch MLRS and Hyacinth artillery. 2 x HIMARS launchers, 1 x M777 artillery as well as other equipments + ammunition had been destroyed. Heavy shelling is also reported all around the Orikhiv region, suggesting major build…

[ BAKHMUT ] HEAVY FIGHTING AT CENTRAL TRAIN STATION – VDV forces reportedly now fighting in Bakhmut

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 11, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Heavy fighting for the Bakhmut central train station (No.2) was raging for the past 3 days; latest unconfirmed information suggests that the Ukrainian forces had been pushed out from the station in the evening of 10th April 2023. Ukrainian salient south and southeast of Avangard stadium had shrinked further, albeit…

UKRAINE MINING OSKIL RIVER BANKS – counter at Vodyane | Ukraine “Spring Offensive” Tracking: 8-10/4

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 11, 2023

Ukraine Spring Offensive Update: Ukrainian forces restarted probing Russian lines after 3 day pause that coincided with the news of NATO-US-Ukraine military document leak. Probing actions were reported at Synkivka and Novoselivske in the Kupyansk-Svatove Front, Volodymyrivka and Novosilka at the Donetsk Front. Counter offensive operations were reported NE of Vodyane at the Avdiivka front.…

Analysis/Dissection of Leaked US-NATO-Ukraine Military Documents by former professional soldiers

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 8, 2023

An unusual situation happened in the Ukraine-War-Infosphere, where a set of US-NATO-Ukraine military document had appeared online, in an apparently leak. People have mixed opinions about it, some think its legit, others believe its fake or misinformation. To “clear the air”, Wyatt of Defense Politics Asia, a former intel specialist from the Singapore Armed Forces,…

[ BAKHMUT ] UKRAINE FALLING BACK TO NEW LINE ALONG RAILWAY – Wagner progress 500m across city center

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 7, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces continue to speedy progress to move the frontlines in center Bakhmut by another 500m, or around 2 streets, as the Ukrainians seemed to be conducting tactical withdrawal to a new line of defense along the railway track. Fighting is now at the police station, near Bakhmut Railway Station…

WAGNER DOMINATING CENTER OF BAKHMUT – sign of Ukrainian forces moving to new line of defense in city

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | April 6, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian forces abandoned the north half of the center of Bakhmut east of Bakhmut train station (no.2), as the Russian forces captured big swathes of the city south of AZOM plant. The Ukrainian controlled area around the Avangard Stadium in the southern frontlines in Bakhmut City is also shrinking as…

[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER REACHES CENTRAL BAKHMUT – Prigozhin geolocated; Wagner fighting over SW exit

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 28, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Prigozhin unexpectedly appear “very near to the frontline”, spelling that the actual frontline is actually lot deeper into Bakhmut that previously expected. As such, reports of fighting has arrive to the central region of Bakhmut. Fighting continues in the rest of the southern frontlines, while Russian forces continue pushing towards…

[ Avdiivka Front ] UKRAINE SECURES STEPOVE – Russia swing North towards Lastochkyne from City’s SW

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 24, 2023

Update from the Avdiivka Front: Ukrainian forces’ counterattack succeeded, and managed to push the Russian forces eastward back to the railway tracks. However, Russian forces continue to attack in all directions in the Avdiivka, and with a interesting report from Ukrainian MoD suggesting Russian forces attacking SW of Avdiivka, swing northward towards Lastochkyne, where the…

[ Avdiivka ] BATTLE OF STEPOVE NOT OVER! – Russian forces held at the SW outskirt of Avdiivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 22, 2023

Update from the Avdiivka Front: Swirling rumors of Russian capture of Stepove is invalidated by both DeepStateUA and Rybar, as both sources claim fighting is still ongoing at Stepove. Updated information from the SW of Avdiivka suggest that the Russian forces is currently right at the outskirt of the 9th/Khimik District. Heavy pressure continue to…

[ BAKHMUT ] UKRAINE WITHDRAW FROM SALIENT IN SOUTH BAKHMUT – counter attacking near city centre!

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 22, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian forces in the most southern part of Bakhmut City withdrew northward to avoid encirclement, while they launch a counterattack at the Russian forces. Russian forces continue to put pressure across entire frontlines. Watch the entire video for the full Situation Report (SITREP).

AVDIIVKA DEFENSE LINES COLLAPSED – Russia entered SW Avdiivka; entered Stepove; reaching Berdychi

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 20, 2023

Update from the Avdiivka Front: Russian forces broke through the defense lines north of Avdiivka as Russian and Donetsk forces entered Stepove and heading towards Berdychi, corroborated by Ukraine MoD. In the SW of Avdiivka, Russian forces broke through the final trench lines north of Optyne, and as per the latest report from pro-Russian sources,…

[ Bakhmut Front ] WAGNER FORCES EXPANDS CONTROL NORTH OF BOHDANIVKA; closing on Hryhorivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 20, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces captured the region NE of Bodanivka and straighten the frontline all the way to the eastern outskirt of Hryhorivka. Fighting is also reported west of Dubovo-Vasylivka towards the canal. Ukrainian forces counter attacked west and SW of Ivanivske and recaptured most of the forest region, while Russian forces…

RUSSIA CLOSING ON AVDIIVKA COKE PLANT – Russian forces expanding control south of Krasnohorivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 19, 2023

Update from the Avdiivka Front: DeepStateUA concede the lost of Krasnohorivka as their mapping shows the Ukrainian forces are entirely on the outskirt of the town. South of Krasnohorivka, Russian forces expanded their control and are now moving in the direction of the Avdiivka Coke Plant. Watch the entire video for the full Situation Report…

[ BAKHMUT ] 500 METERS FROM ADMINISTRATION BUILDING – Wagner Forces progress in the S & SW Bakhmut

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 19, 2023

Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces made progress in the south as the Wagner fighters are now fighting along the Mariupolska Street. From this position, the Wagner PMC forces are merely within 500meters from the city admin building. Russian forces also progressed in the SW of the city as they come close to the…

UKRAINE ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE – Ukraine launches major ground ops south of Orikhiv/Novodanylivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 19, 2023

Update from the Zaporizhzhia Front: Ukrainian forces launch major ground offensive towards Robotyne, from Novodanylivka, in the Orikhiv node of the Zaporizhzhia Line. In the latest update from Rybar (19/3), a pro-Russian source, the Ukrainian forces launch a pincer attack on Robotyne in 2 directions, with smoke screen covering their movements from the Russian defenders.…

[ Analysis ] SECRET PLAN OF UKRAINE’S SPRING OFFENSIVE : to wipe out Wagner PMC in the Bakhmut Front

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 19, 2023

There is A LOT of talk about Ukraine upcoming Spring Offensive; so much so that, even the Ukrainian military and leadership themselves had alluded to the existence of the plan to conduct a major offensive in spring 2023 (weird). But the Wagner’s offensive is relentless and it seemed like its nearly impossible for the Ukrainian…

[ Analysis ] Secret plan of Wagner PMC in their Bakhmut Offensive

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | March 7, 2023

In a curious turn of event, Zelenskyy puts out a very public video, claiming that he accepted his generals’ decision to stay and fight for Bakhmut; instead of the tactical/organised withdrawal that is reportedly underway. This could either be Zelenskyy throwing the generals under the bus; or perhaps the generals indeed is responding to the…