Focus Active theater
Trade War
Trump's Reform of the US-Led International Trade/Economic System
Two wars are still open with Canada and Mexico. The rest of the reciprocal board closed on United States terms.
- USA vs Canada ongoing
- USA vs Mexico ongoing
- USA vs China ongoing
- USA vs European Union concluded
- USA vs the rest of the reciprocal board concluded
- China vs European Union brewing
Snapshot Snapshot 29 September 2026. Canada and Mexico have not settled. The concluded rows are the fights the other side paid to get out of.
DPA read
Our own assessment, dated. Kept apart from what the sides claim.
Canada and Mexico are still in a trade war with the United States. They have not conceded. The other reciprocal fights are concluded. The other side opened its market, pledged purchases, or pledged investment, to get off the Liberation Day rate. Those are United States wins.
The sides
Each side in its own words, next to each other. Nothing merged.
United States
Position as of 1 April 2025Demands
- Reduction of trade deficits: more imports of American goods and services
- Elimination of non-tariff barriers (foreign regulations, standards, practices)
- Addressing currency manipulation
- Reciprocal tariffs that mirror what other countries charge the US
Moves
- 9 May 2025 — baseline 10% tariff stays even after trade deals; exemptions possible for significant offers.
- Section 232 probes opened on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors (21-day comment; 270-day clock). Electronics exemptions from reciprocal tariffs are a temporary reprieve. They are meant to move under a semiconductor tariff.
- Section 301 maritime fees aimed at China's shipbuilding share (5% in 1999 → 50%+ in 2023). US yards ~5 ships/year vs China ~1,700.
In their words
"At the end of the day we can probably reach a deal with our allies... and then we can approach China as a group."
... American Bankers Association summit. Warning Spain and others that aligning with China is not the off-ramp.
China
Position as of May 2025Demands
- No deals struck at China's expense. Reciprocal countermeasures if that happens
- Reject "appeasement" bargains (tariff exemptions in exchange for cutting China out)
- Keep export leverage on rare earths / magnets (halt on seven heavy rare earths, ~90% of magnets)
Moves
- Matched US escalations: 34% → 84% → 125%, then both sides cut reciprocal/retaliation to 10% for 90 days on 12 May 2025. Industry-specific US tariffs and fentanyl 20% were not in that pause.
- Quiet exemptions: ~$40bn of US imports spared from 125% (semiconductors, some pharmaceuticals). Caijing report on chip exemptions was pulled.
- Boeing deliveries and US aviation parts paused for Chinese carriers. Chip origin rules shifted to wafer-fab location.
In their words
"China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests. If such a situation arises, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures. Appeasement does not bring peace, and compromise does not earn respect."
... On reports the Trump administration would pressure countries to restrict trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions.
The board
Still open
| Partner | Where it stands |
|---|---|
| Canada | Ongoing. April 2025 left USMCA-compliant goods at 0% and the rest at 25%. That was a shelter, not a deal. On 1 July 2026 Washington refused a 16-year USMCA renewal. Talks collapsed in August. On 22 August the US put 50% on about $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada's counter-tariffs took effect 8 September. |
| Mexico | Ongoing. Same USMCA shelter, same refusal to renew. The fourth round of talks slipped in late September 2026, around Xi Jinping's Washington visit. Mexico is asking for steel at 25% instead of 50%, and autos at 15% instead of 25%. No concession signed. Most Mexican shipments still enter under USMCA. |
| China | Ongoing, and a separate war. The 12 May 2025 pause cut the reciprocal stack to 10% for 90 days. Industry tariffs and the fentanyl duty sat outside it. IEEPA collection ended 24 February 2026. Section 301 and Section 232 did not. |
The April 2025 USMCA shelter did not end either war.
Concluded. The other side conceded.
| Partner | Settled | What they gave |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 8 May 2025. Rate stays 10%. | Ethanol to zero. Beef quota 13,000 tonnes. First 100,000 UK cars a year at 10%, not 25%. Steel and aluminum negotiated down. The UK would not drop the digital services tax. |
| Vietnam | 2 Jul 2025. Rate 46% to 20%. Joint statement 26 Oct 2025. | Preferential access for US goods, including large-engine cars. US vehicle standards. Aircraft and farm purchases. |
| Indonesia | Announced 15 Jul 2025. Signed 19 Feb 2026. Rate 32% to 19%. | Tariffs off 99% of US industrial and farm goods. $33 billion in purchases. A $10 billion investment push. |
| Japan | 22 Jul 2025. Rate 24% to 15%. | $550 billion into projects the US president picks. Access on cars, energy, and rice. |
| European Union | 27 Jul 2025. Rate 20% to 15%. US implemented 25 Sep 2025. | Tariffs off US industrial goods. Energy and AI-chip purchases. A $600 billion investment pledge through 2028. |
| South Korea | 30 Jul 2025. Rate 25% to 15%. US implemented 4 Dec 2025. | $350 billion investment, $150 billion of it shipbuilding. $3.6 billion in Boeing aircraft. US auto standards. |
| Cambodia | 26 Oct 2025. Rate 49% to 19%. | Zero tariffs on US industrial and farm goods. Air Cambodia to finish a Boeing 737 order. |
| Malaysia | 26 Oct 2025. Rate 24% to 19%. | Zero tariffs on US industrial and farm goods. $150 billion in purchases over five years. $70 billion of investment over ten years. Match US export controls. |
| Thailand | 26 Oct 2025. Rate 32% to 19%. | US standards on cars, drugs, and fuel ethanol. Aircraft and energy purchases. The United States gets first look at Thai critical minerals. |
| Switzerland and Liechtenstein | 14 Nov 2025. Swiss rate 39% to 15%. Implemented 18 Dec 2025. | Zero duties on US industrial goods, seafood, and some farm goods. Switzerland: $200 billion investment over five years. Liechtenstein: $300 million. |
| Argentina | Framework 13 Nov 2025. Signed 5 Feb 2026. Rate stays 10%. | Access for US farm goods, medicines, and vehicles. Lithium and copper with the US ahead of China. |
| Ecuador | Framework 13 Nov 2025. Signed 13 Mar 2026. | Tariffs cut or removed on US farm inputs, chemicals, machinery, and vehicles. |
| El Salvador | Signed 29 Jan 2026. | CAFTA-DR origin goods exempt from the reciprocal rate. US standards accepted. |
| Guatemala | Signed 30 Jan 2026. | Same CAFTA-DR shelter. An E10 ethanol blend, and at least 50 million gallons of US ethanol a year. |
| Taiwan | Announced 15 Jan 2026. Signed 12 Feb 2026. Rate 32% to no more than 15%. | $250 billion direct investment in chips, AI, and energy, plus $250 billion in credit guarantees. Tariffs off or down on 99% of US industrial and farm goods. Defense budget above 3% of GDP. |
| India | Framework 6 Feb 2026. Rate 25% to 18%. The extra 25% Russian-oil duty was lifted the same week. | Tariffs off or down on US industrial goods and a wide set of food and farm goods. The 10 Feb fact sheet softened "committed to buy" to "intends to buy." |
| Bangladesh | 9 Feb 2026. Rate 37% to 19%. | Access for US beef, chemicals, dairy, energy, medical devices, and soy. $15 billion of energy over fifteen years. $3.5 billion of US farm goods. |
| North Macedonia | Framework 12 Feb 2026. Rate 33% to 15%. | All duties off US industrial and farm goods. US LNG once the Greece interconnector is finished. The full agreement is still being negotiated. |
Philippines (announced 22 Jul 2025) and Pakistan (announced 31 Jul 2025) are on the announced list. Their written concessions are thinner than the rows above, so they are named, not scored. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court struck the IEEPA tariffs these rates were built on. Collection stopped 24 February. A temporary 10% surcharge under Section 122 replaced them. The concessions are the settlement. Section 232 and Section 301 are a separate stack.
USA vs Canada
- 1 Feb 2025 — 25% on Canadian goods, 10% on energy. Trudeau: 25% on C$30 billion, with a larger second wave queued.
- 3 Feb 2025 — one-month delay. Canada holds the retaliation.
- 4 Mar 2025 — tariffs on. Canada's first wave hits about US$20.6 billion: liquor, vegetables, clothing, shoes.
- 12 Mar 2025 — steel and aluminum briefly doubled to 50%, then walked back to 25% after Ontario threatened an electricity surcharge.
- 2–9 Apr 2025 — USMCA-compliant goods at 0%, the rest at 25%. Carney puts 25% on non-USMCA US vehicles.
- 1 Jul 2026 — Washington refuses to renew USMCA for 16 years. The treaty stays up, on an annual review.
- 22 Aug 2026 — talks are dead. 50% on about $20 billion of Canadian goods.
- 8 Sep 2026 — Canada's counter-tariffs take effect.
USA vs Mexico
- 1 Feb 2025 — 25% ordered. The stated reasons: the deficit, migration, fentanyl. Sheinbaum vows retaliation and does not name targets.
- 3 Feb 2025 — one-month delay. Mexico holds the retaliation.
- 4 Mar 2025 — 25% on. USMCA goods exempt only until 2 Apr.
- 6 Mar 2025 — that exemption is extended to 2 Apr. Mexico waits.
- 2 Apr 2025 — USMCA goods made tariff-free. 25% stays on non-USMCA goods, plus 25% on autos and parts. Sheinbaum calls the shelter a win. It is not a settlement.
- 1 Jul 2026 — same USMCA non-renewal as Canada.
- Sep 2026 — fourth round postponed. Mexico wants steel at 25% instead of 50%, and autos at 15% instead of 25%. No deal.
China, still open
- 11 Apr 2025 — Spain's Pedro Sanchez in Beijing as the EU rethinks trade ties after the US tariffs.
- 14–18 Apr 2025 — Xi in Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia. Vietnam: 40 cooperation agreements.
- China asked Australia, the EU, ASEAN, and India for a united front. Australia and India turned it down. The EU and ASEAN talked. No deal was announced.
- 12 May 2025 — both sides cut the reciprocal stack to 10% for 90 days. Industry tariffs stay.
Brewing China vs JapanChina vs South KoreaChina vs AustraliaChina vs BrazilChina vs IndiaChina vs Vietnam
The rest of the board
Third parties, blocs, and developments that move the board.
Development
Moody's (16 May 2025)
US lost its perfect AAA from all three majors. Moody's: successive administrations and Congress failed to reverse large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. Local/foreign-currency ceilings stayed Aaa.
Development
CPI (13 May 2025)
Consumer prices climbed at the slowest pace since Feb 2021. Tariff inflation had not hit wallets yet. Analysts said that still may not move the Fed to cut.
Development
Malaysia origin crackdown (5 May 2025)
MITI becomes the only issuer of non-preferential certificates of origin from 6 May. Circumventing tariffs via false origin/value is a serious offence. Minister: many items from other countries stamped as Malaysian.
Development
SE Asia solar (23 Apr 2025)
Commerce probe: duties up to 3,521% Cambodia, 395.9% Vietnam, 375.2% Thailand, 34.4% Malaysia on crystalline silicon PV. ITC final due June.
USA vs China ladder (2025)
Trump second term. Early China tariffs to 20%.
Additional 10% on all Chinese imports. China: 15% on US coal and LNG.
US doubles China tariffs to 20%. China: 15% on US chicken, pork, soy.
US +34% (stacked total 54%). De minimis on China postal packages ends 2 May.
China +34% on all US imports, effective 10 Apr, plus rare-earth export curbs.
US +50% (104% then clarified 145% = 125% reciprocal + 20% fentanyl). China 34% → 84%. Same day US to 125%. 75 countries that called to talk get 90-day 10% reprieve.
China 84% → 125% from 12 Apr. Xi hosts Sanchez; SE Asia tour queued.
Both sides cut reciprocal/retaliation to 10% for 90 days. Industry tariffs stay.
Reports & video
SITREPs and analysis on this theater. The rolling war lives here.
April 16, 2025[ Trade War SITREP: 13-16 April 2025 ] CHINA SIGNS 40 AGREEMENTS W VIETNAM; Trump to help car industry; decoupling continues…
April 10, 2025China seeks united front with like minded partners to fight USA in the Trade War
September 27, 2018