2025 India-Pakistan Crisis
Diplomatic Fallout and Tnesion over Pahalgam Terror Attack
SITREP (VIDEO)
STRATEGIC MAP
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SITUATION OVERVIEW
DPA RISK OF WAR ASSESSMENT (26 April 2025)
MID-HIGH
DPA Note (26 April 2025): Near total cutting of diplomatic relationships, deployment of troops by both sides to the border, as well as the suspending of Indus Water Treaty bring the risk of war to a very high level.
Suspending of Indus Water Treaty / cutting of river flow is a casus belli for war - thus India had escalated the risk of war to a very high level.
Background of the Pahalgam Attack (April 22, 2025)
Location:
Pahalgam, a tourist hub in Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir, known for its scenic beauty and Amarnath pilgrimage route.
Incident:
- Militants attacked a crowded market and tourist area on April 22, 2025.
- Resulted in 26 deaths, primarily tourists, with dozens injured.
- Attack involved gunfire and explosives, targeting civilians.
Perpetrators:
- The Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group, claimed responsibility.
- TRF is considered a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist organization designated by the UN and multiple countries.
- India alleges Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supports TRF and LeT, providing funding, training, and logistics.
Kashmir Context:
- Jammu and Kashmir has been a disputed region since the 1947 India-Pakistan partition.
- India administers the region as a union territory after revoking its semi-autonomous status in 2019, a move that heightened tensions.
- Militancy in Kashmir surged in the 1990s, with groups like LeT targeting Indian forces and civilians to push for independence or merger with Pakistan.
- Recent years saw a decline in violence, but high-profile attacks persist, often targeting security forces or civilians.
Historical Precedents:
- Similar to the 2019 Pulwama attack, where 40 Indian soldiers were killed, leading to India’s airstrike on alleged militant camps in Balakot, Pakistan.
- Post-2019, India adopted a proactive stance against cross-border terrorism, including surgical strikes and diplomatic measures.
Motives:
- Militants aim to destabilize Indian control in Kashmir, disrupt tourism (a key economic driver), and provoke conflict between India and Pakistan.
- Attack timed to maximize civilian casualties and international attention, leveraging Kashmir’s visibility as a conflict zone.
Immediate Fallout:
- India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack, citing intelligence on TRF’s cross-border links.
- Sparked a series of retaliatory measures, including suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and border closures, escalating into the current crisis.
TIMELINE
April 22, 2025
Terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir. Militants ambushed tourists, killing 26 (mostly Hindu tourists) and injuring over 20. Attackers reportedly targeted non-Muslims after questioning victims’ religious identity.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, vowing to pursue perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth. Public outrage in India, with anti-Pakistan protests in Delhi and other cities, raising concerns about anti-Kashmiri and anti-Muslim sentiment.
April 23, 2025
India suspend Indus Waters Treaty, halting flood data sharing. Closed Attari-Wagah border crossing. Revoked visas for Pakistani nationals, expelled military advisers, and reduced diplomatic staff.
Pakistan denied involvement, called India’s treaty suspension an “act of war.” Suspended trade, closed airspace and land borders to India. Conducted surface-to-surface missile test off Karachi coast, April 24-25. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggested attack might be a “false flag operation” by India.
April 24, 2025
Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement in retaliation for India’s treaty suspension. Closed airspace to Indian aircraft. Halted all trade with India and closed land borders, except for the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrims. Expelled Indian diplomats and ordered Indian military advisers to leave Pakistan by April 30. Reduced the Attari-Wagah border ceremony, omitting the symbolic handshake.
India summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat in New Delhi to protest alleged Pakistani involvement in the attack. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh hinted at a “strong response,” reiterating India’s “zero tolerance” for terrorism.
Skirmishes reported along the Line of Control (LoC) in the night of April 24-25.
April 25, 2025
India's Army Chief of Staff General Upendra Dwivedi visited the Pahalgam attack site to review security arrangements.
Indian Navy deployed aircraft carrier INS Vikrant to the Arabian Sea near Pakistan’s maritime borders, accompanied by MiG-29K jets and INS Surat. Conducted live-fire drills, including a medium-range surface-to-air missile launch.
Pakistan conducted a surface-to-surface missile test off the Karachi coast within its exclusive economic zone on April 24-25.
Pakistani Air Force conducted intensive flights near the LoC.
Incident at Ferozepur Border: An Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldier from the 182nd battalion was captured by Pakistan Rangers after unintentionally crossing into Pakistani territory. Negotiations for his release were initiated.
April 26, 2025
Udhampur Clashes: Military engagements occurred in Dudu Basantgarh, Udhampur district, Jammu and Kashmir. Indian security forces confronted suspected militants, resulting in two militant deaths and one Indian soldier killed.
Pakistani military outposts claimed to have initiated “unprovoked small arms firing” across various LoC sectors overnight (April 25-26). Indian forces responded.
Both Indian and Pakistani air forces continued intensive flights near the LoC.
Pakistan reportedly deployed elite Special Service Group (SSG) commandos near vulnerable border stretches to deter Indian ground incursions.
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (23 April 2025)
- Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty: India halted participation in the 1960 treaty, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism. This included stopping flood data sharing.
- Closure of Attari-Wagah Border: The integrated check post was shut immediately, with a May 1 deadline for legal cross-border returns.
- Visa Restrictions: Revoked all visas for Pakistani nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, banned Pakistani nationals from entering India, and ordered those in India to leave within 48 hours.
- Diplomatic Downgrade: Expelled Pakistani military, naval, and air advisers from the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi. Reduced Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad from 55 to 30. Withdrew Indian military advisers from Pakistan.
- Travel Advisory: Urged Indian citizens to avoid travel to Pakistan and those in Pakistan to return immediately.
- Indian police in Kashmir released sketches of three suspects (Hashim Musa, Ali Bhai, Adil Hussain Thoker) believed to be linked to the attack, offering a 2 million INR (~$23,000) reward. Musa and Bhai were identified as Pakistani nationals, Thoker as a Kashmiri resident.
Incident at Ferozepur Border (23 April 2025)
Location: Ferozepur sector, Punjab, India, near the International Border (IB) with Pakistan. This area is distinct from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, lying well south in a relatively stable region not typically associated with the ongoing Kashmir conflict.
Individual Involved: Constable PK Sahu (also reported as PK Singh in some sources), a member of the 182nd Battalion of the Indian BSF.
Profile: A 17-year veteran of the BSF, resident of West Bengal, married with a seven-year-old son. He had recently returned to duty on March 31, 2025, after leave.
Status at Time of Incident: Sahu was in uniform and carrying his service rifle, indicating he was on active duty.
Circumstances:
Sahu was accompanying farmers working near the zero-line (the border fence) in the Ferozepur sector, a routine task to ensure security in border areas.
While monitoring the farmers, he reportedly moved ahead to rest in the shade of a tree, inadvertently crossing the border fence into Pakistani territory.
Pakistan Rangers detained him immediately upon crossing, as per standard procedure for unauthorized border crossings.
Location Specificity: The incident took place near farmland close to the Indo-Pak border, highlighting the proximity of civilian activities to the sensitive border area.
Pakistani Action: Rangers took Sahu into custody and later moved him deeper into Pakistani territory, away from the border outpost, complicating immediate negotiations.
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (23-24 April 2025)
- Denied involvement in the attack, calling India’s allegations “frivolous” and lacking evidence. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggested the attack could be a “false flag operation” by India.
- Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office labeled India’s measures “unilateral, politically motivated, and legally void,” expressing concern over the loss of lives but rejecting links to Pakistan.
- Pakistan’s National Security Committee met to review India’s actions, particularly the Indus Waters Treaty suspension, calling it an “act of war” and promising a “comprehensive retaliation.”
- Suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement in retaliation for India’s treaty suspension.
- Closed airspace to Indian aircraft, impacting Indian airlines like IndiGo and Air India, causing longer flight times and higher costs for international routes.
- Halted all trade with India and closed land borders, except for the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrims.
- Expelled Indian diplomats and ordered Indian military advisers to leave Pakistan by April 30.
- Reduced the Attari-Wagah border ceremony, omitting the symbolic handshake.
DEVELOPMENT (24-25 April 2025)
Point of view
"Our stance is absolutely clear, it (Kashmir) was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein. We will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle.
Our forefathers believed that we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different...
That was the foundation of the Two-Nation Theory. It was laid on the belief that we are two nations, not one"
Chief of Army
Pakistan
Point of view
"Terrorists and the conspirators — we will punish them worse than they can imagine...
India will identify, track, punish every terrorist and their backers."
Prime Minister
India