2025 India-Pakistan Crisis
Diplomatic Fallout and Tension over Pahalgam Terror Attack
SITREP (VIDEO)
STRATEGIC MAP
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SITUATION OVERVIEW
DPA RISK OF WAR ASSESSMENT (8 May 2025)
IMMINENT
DPA Note (30 April 2025): India launched "Operation Sindoor", sending airstriks and missile strikes into Pakistan; Pakistan retaliated with missile strikes and shooting down of Indian aircrafts; including exchange of artillery fire - raising the "Risk of War" assessment level to "Imminent".
DPA Note (30 April 2025): Pakistan's Information Minister publicly warned based on "credible intelligence" that India military action is imminent - within 24-36 hours. DPA currently put high credibility to the claim, raising the "Risk of War" assessment level from MID-HIGH to HIGH
DPA Note (26 April 2025): Near total cutting of diplomatic relationships, deployment of troops by both sides to the border, as well as the suspending of Indus Water Treaty bring the risk of war to a very high level.
Suspending of Indus Water Treaty / cutting of river flow is a casus belli for war - thus India had escalated the risk of war to a very high level.
Background of the Pahalgam Attack (April 22, 2025)
Location:
Pahalgam, a tourist hub in Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir, known for its scenic beauty and Amarnath pilgrimage route.
Incident:
- Militants attacked a crowded market and tourist area on April 22, 2025.
- Resulted in 26 deaths, primarily tourists, with dozens injured.
- Attack involved gunfire and explosives, targeting civilians.
Perpetrators:
- The Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group, claimed responsibility.
- TRF is considered a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist organization designated by the UN and multiple countries.
- India alleges Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supports TRF and LeT, providing funding, training, and logistics.
Kashmir Context:
- Jammu and Kashmir has been a disputed region since the 1947 India-Pakistan partition.
- India administers the region as a union territory after revoking its semi-autonomous status in 2019, a move that heightened tensions.
- Militancy in Kashmir surged in the 1990s, with groups like LeT targeting Indian forces and civilians to push for independence or merger with Pakistan.
- Recent years saw a decline in violence, but high-profile attacks persist, often targeting security forces or civilians.
Historical Precedents:
- Similar to the 2019 Pulwama attack, where 40 Indian soldiers were killed, leading to India’s airstrike on alleged militant camps in Balakot, Pakistan.
- Post-2019, India adopted a proactive stance against cross-border terrorism, including surgical strikes and diplomatic measures.
Motives:
- Militants aim to destabilize Indian control in Kashmir, disrupt tourism (a key economic driver), and provoke conflict between India and Pakistan.
- Attack timed to maximize civilian casualties and international attention, leveraging Kashmir’s visibility as a conflict zone.
Immediate Fallout:
- India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack, citing intelligence on TRF’s cross-border links.
- Sparked a series of retaliatory measures, including suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and border closures, escalating into the current crisis.
TIMELINE (preamble)
April 22, 2025
Terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Indian-administered Kashmir. Militants ambushed tourists, killing 26 (mostly Hindu tourists) and injuring over 20. Attackers reportedly targeted non-Muslims after questioning victims’ religious identity.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, vowing to pursue perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth. Public outrage in India, with anti-Pakistan protests in Delhi and other cities, raising concerns about anti-Kashmiri and anti-Muslim sentiment.
April 23, 2025
India suspend Indus Waters Treaty, halting flood data sharing. Closed Attari-Wagah border crossing. Revoked visas for Pakistani nationals, expelled military advisers, and reduced diplomatic staff.
Pakistan denied involvement, called India’s treaty suspension an “act of war.” Suspended trade, closed airspace and land borders to India. Conducted surface-to-surface missile test off Karachi coast, April 24-25. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggested attack might be a “false flag operation” by India.
April 24, 2025
Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement in retaliation for India’s treaty suspension. Closed airspace to Indian aircraft. Halted all trade with India and closed land borders, except for the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrims. Expelled Indian diplomats and ordered Indian military advisers to leave Pakistan by April 30. Reduced the Attari-Wagah border ceremony, omitting the symbolic handshake.
India summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat in New Delhi to protest alleged Pakistani involvement in the attack. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh hinted at a “strong response,” reiterating India’s “zero tolerance” for terrorism.
Skirmishes reported along the Line of Control (LoC) in the night of April 24-25.
April 25, 2025
India's Army Chief of Staff General Upendra Dwivedi visited the Pahalgam attack site to review security arrangements.
Indian Navy deployed aircraft carrier INS Vikrant to the Arabian Sea near Pakistan’s maritime borders, accompanied by MiG-29K jets and INS Surat. Conducted live-fire drills, including a medium-range surface-to-air missile launch.
Pakistan conducted a surface-to-surface missile test off the Karachi coast within its exclusive economic zone on April 24-25.
Pakistani Air Force conducted intensive flights near the LoC.
Incident at Ferozepur Border: An Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldier from the 182nd battalion was captured by Pakistan Rangers after unintentionally crossing into Pakistani territory. Negotiations for his release were initiated.
April 26, 2025
Udhampur Clashes: Military engagements occurred in Dudu Basantgarh, Udhampur district, Jammu and Kashmir. Indian security forces confronted suspected militants, resulting in two militant deaths and one Indian soldier killed.
Pakistani military outposts claimed to have initiated “unprovoked small arms firing” across various LoC sectors overnight (April 25-26). Indian forces responded.
Both Indian and Pakistani air forces continued intensive flights near the LoC.
Pakistan reportedly deployed elite Special Service Group (SSG) commandos near vulnerable border stretches to deter Indian ground incursions.
April 27, 2025
India's National Investigation Agency (NIA) assumed control of the Pahalgam attack investigation on April 27, focusing on Pakistan’s alleged role. Government sources claim the attack was orchestrated by Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir to “gain popularity” and sow communal divisions in India amid Pakistan’s economic crisis
Indian forces demolished the family home of Ahsan Ul Haq Sheikh, a militant linked to the Pahalgam attack, in Murran village, Pulwama, on April 26, as a deterrent measure.
Exchange of small arms fire continues for the 3rd night.
India’s navy conducted missile tests on April 27, demonstrating “long-range, precision offensive” capabilities.
India’s information ministry issued a media advisory against live broadcasting of military operations, citing security concerns
April 29, 2025 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly authorized his country's armed forces to respond to a deadly attack in disputed Kashmir last week in whatever way they see fit.
April 30, 2025 Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar stated that Islamabad had “credible intelligence” of an Indian military strike within 24–36 hours, a claim echoed by Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif. Pakistan vowed a “decisive response” to any aggression. India’s Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately respond to these allegations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a second Cabinet Committee on Security meeting since the Pahalgam attack
May 3, 2025 Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, suspended all trade, and reduced Indian diplomatic presence in Islamabad to 30 staff, mirroring India’s earlier actions.
A Pakistan Rangers soldier was captured by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) after crossing into Indian territory
Pakistan tested ballistic missiles.
May 5, 2025 India’s Ministry of Home Affairs announced civil defense drills across seven states on May 7, the first such exercises since 1971. The drills included air raid sirens, blackout measures, and civilian evacuation training, indicating preparations for potential conflict.
India conducted military drills.
TIMELINE (Ops Sindoor)
May 6, 2025 Late in the evening, the Indian Army launched Operation Sindoor, a series of coordinated missile and air strikes targeting nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir (Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Bahawalpur in Punjab). India claimed the strikes targeted “terrorist infrastructure” linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, asserting no Pakistani military facilities were hit. The operation lasted 23-25 minutes, using Rafale jets with SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs.
Pakistan condemned the strikes as “unprovoked” and an “act of war,” reporting civilian casualties, including children, and damage to civilian infrastructure like the Bilal mosque in Muzaffarabad and an educational complex in Muridke. Pakistani officials claimed 26-31 deaths, including 9 civilians, and 35-46 injuries. Pakistan vowed to retaliate “at a time and place of its choosing.”
May 7, 2025 Pakistan retaliated with missile strikes on Indian-administered Kashmir, claiming to have downed five Indian aircraft (including Su-30MKI, MiG-29, Rafale jets, and an IAI Heron drone). India denied these losses, though local Indian sources reported three jets crashed in India. Pakistan’s claims of destroying an Indian brigade headquarters were labeled as misinformation by Indian media.
Pakistan closed its airspace for 48 hours, canceling flights in Karachi and Lahore. International airlines like Air France, Lufthansa, and Malaysia Airlines rerouted or suspended operations. Schools and colleges in Pakistan’s Punjab province were closed, and examinations were postponed.
Evacuations were ordered in Indian-administered Kashmir, and residents of Pakistan-administered Kashmir fled after the strikes. India conducted emergency civil defense drills nationwide, including in Mumbai and New Delhi, simulating conflict scenarios.
May 8, 2025 Both sides claim the other side is launching missiles/drone strikes at one another. India’s S-400 missile system (Sudarshan) reportedly was used to intercept some of the attacks, marking its first combat use.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claimed Pakistani forces killed 40–50 Indian soldiers along the Line of Control (LoC) and destroyed Indian military installations.
India conducted retaliatory strikes, neutralizing a Pakistani air defense system in Lahore and targeting air defense radars at multiple locations in Pakistan. India claimed these actions were in response to Pakistan’s “escalatory” attacks on military targets, unlike India’s earlier strikes, which focused on “terrorist infrastructure.”
Indian media claimed India shot down a Pakistani F-16, two JF-17 fighter jets, and a Pakistani Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) in Punjab, Pakistan.
Targeted attack on Jaish-e-Mohammad leader (7 April 2025)
Masood Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) – one of two militant factions that India’s military said it targeted overnight – said his older sister, his brother-in-law, his nephew and niece were among those who died.
“The coward Modi targeted innocent children, unmarried women and the elderly,” Azhar said in a statement on Wednesday. “The grief and shock are so much that they cannot be described.”
Jaish-e-Mohammed, which translates to the Army of the Prophet Mohammed, is a Pakistan-based group that operates across Kashmir, and seeks to unite the Indian-controlled area of the disputed state with Pakistan.
While the US and the UN Security Council listed JeM as a terrorist organization in 2001, an effort to include its leader, Masood Azhar, as an “internationally designated terrorist” was vetoed by China.
Possible misinformation campaign (8 May 2025)
Mohammad Khorasani, Spokesperson of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan announced Maulana Masood Azhar’s brother, Hafiz Saifullah, along with other individuals
They claimed that they have received credible information, that the "martyred individuals" were attacked by Pakistani Army personnel under the command of the Pakistani Prime Minister.
Air to air combat (7 April 2025)
The “dog fight” between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets, which Pakistani officials say downed five Indian planes, was one of the “largest and longest in recent aviation history,” a senior Pakistani security source told CNN.
A total of 125 fighter jets battled for over an hour, with neither side leaving its own airspace, according to the source who detailed that the missile exchanges were happening at distances sometimes greater than 160 kilometers (100 miles).
Neither side was prepared to send their pilots over the border because of a much smaller dogfight in 2019. An Indian Air Force pilot was shot down on Pakistani territory and paraded on TV before being returned to India. A humiliation, he said, neither side wanted this time.
At times, the Indian Air Force had to take multiple runs at targets, according to the source. Pakistan did its best to warn civilians in areas it believed to be potential targets, the source said, and that the military was able to minimize civilian casualties.
Rumor of Rafale Shot down (7 April 2025)
A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN today that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan. The French official told CNN that French authorities were looking into whether more than one Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistan overnight.
Pictures taken of parts of an aircraft that crashed in Indian-administered Kashmir show the label of a French manufacturer, but experts said it was not possible to say whether the part came from a Rafale aircraft.
Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer of the jet, has not responded to CNN’s requests for comment.
Pakistan claimed earlier today to have shot down five Indian Air Force jets in retaliation for Indian strikes, including three Rafales. Indian officials are yet to respond to the claim.
Point of view
"They’ve gone tit-for-tat, so hopefully they can stop now, but I know both. We get along with both countries very well, good relationships with both, and I want to see it stop. And if I can do anything to help, I will. I will be there"
President
United States
Point of view
"India has been measured in its actions. However, any escalation will get a firm response."
Minister of External Affairs
India
Point of view
"Terrorists and the conspirators — we will punish them worse than they can imagine...
India will identify, track, punish every terrorist and their backers."
Prime Minister
India
Point of view
"Pakistan reserves the right to respond, in self-defence, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty,"
Pakistan
"The Armed Forces of Pakistan have duly been authorized to undertake corresponding actions in this regard,” the statement added.
“The nation stands galvanized and resolute in the face of any further aggression.”
ARCHIVES
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (23 April 2025)
- Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty: India halted participation in the 1960 treaty, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism. This included stopping flood data sharing.
- Closure of Attari-Wagah Border: The integrated check post was shut immediately, with a May 1 deadline for legal cross-border returns.
- Visa Restrictions: Revoked all visas for Pakistani nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, banned Pakistani nationals from entering India, and ordered those in India to leave within 48 hours.
- Diplomatic Downgrade: Expelled Pakistani military, naval, and air advisers from the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi. Reduced Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad from 55 to 30. Withdrew Indian military advisers from Pakistan.
- Travel Advisory: Urged Indian citizens to avoid travel to Pakistan and those in Pakistan to return immediately.
- Indian police in Kashmir released sketches of three suspects (Hashim Musa, Ali Bhai, Adil Hussain Thoker) believed to be linked to the attack, offering a 2 million INR (~$23,000) reward. Musa and Bhai were identified as Pakistani nationals, Thoker as a Kashmiri resident.
IMMEDIATE RESPONSE (23-24 April 2025)
- Denied involvement in the attack, calling India’s allegations “frivolous” and lacking evidence. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggested the attack could be a “false flag operation” by India.
- Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office labeled India’s measures “unilateral, politically motivated, and legally void,” expressing concern over the loss of lives but rejecting links to Pakistan.
- Pakistan’s National Security Committee met to review India’s actions, particularly the Indus Waters Treaty suspension, calling it an “act of war” and promising a “comprehensive retaliation.”
- Suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement in retaliation for India’s treaty suspension.
- Closed airspace to Indian aircraft, impacting Indian airlines like IndiGo and Air India, causing longer flight times and higher costs for international routes.
- Halted all trade with India and closed land borders, except for the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikh pilgrims.
- Expelled Indian diplomats and ordered Indian military advisers to leave Pakistan by April 30.
- Reduced the Attari-Wagah border ceremony, omitting the symbolic handshake.
Incident at Ferozepur Border (23 April 2025)
Location: Ferozepur sector, Punjab, India, near the International Border (IB) with Pakistan. This area is distinct from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, lying well south in a relatively stable region not typically associated with the ongoing Kashmir conflict.
Individual Involved: Constable PK Sahu (also reported as PK Singh in some sources), a member of the 182nd Battalion of the Indian BSF.
Profile: A 17-year veteran of the BSF, resident of West Bengal, married with a seven-year-old son. He had recently returned to duty on March 31, 2025, after leave.
Status at Time of Incident: Sahu was in uniform and carrying his service rifle, indicating he was on active duty.
Circumstances:
Sahu was accompanying farmers working near the zero-line (the border fence) in the Ferozepur sector, a routine task to ensure security in border areas.
While monitoring the farmers, he reportedly moved ahead to rest in the shade of a tree, inadvertently crossing the border fence into Pakistani territory.
Pakistan Rangers detained him immediately upon crossing, as per standard procedure for unauthorized border crossings.
Location Specificity: The incident took place near farmland close to the Indo-Pak border, highlighting the proximity of civilian activities to the sensitive border area.
Pakistani Action: Rangers took Sahu into custody and later moved him deeper into Pakistani territory, away from the border outpost, complicating immediate negotiations.
DEVELOPMENT (24-25 April 2025)
DEVELOPMENT (30 April 2025)
Pakistan has credible intelligence that India intends carrying out military action against Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement in the Pahalgam incident.
— Attaullah Tarar (@TararAttaullah) April 29, 2025
Indian self assumed hubristic role of Judge, Jury and… pic.twitter.com/WVW6yhxTJ0
Point of view
"Our stance is absolutely clear, it (Kashmir) was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein. We will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle.
Our forefathers believed that we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different...
That was the foundation of the Two-Nation Theory. It was laid on the belief that we are two nations, not one"
Chief of Army
Pakistan