China’s willingness to negotiate with USA on trade reduce risk of war against Taiwan…

In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.

China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days – effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.

The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony – thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.

DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% – given the trade war respite is only for 90 days – and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.