Full Report on the Missile Incident at Przewodow, Poland
Basic information
We know that around 3-4pm on 15/11/2022 a rocket hit a farm in a Polish village of Przewodów. Two men in their sixties were killed. The men have worked in this very place for 20 years. One of them was a tractor driver, the other one was the warehouse manager. At the time of the explosion they were working in a grain dryer. According to the farm’s menager, the crater created by the missile was 10 meters deep and the 15 square meters building which got hit ceased to exist, no trace of it left. It might be also worth noting that there is a school 400 meters away from the place of the incident.
At first, even a few hours after the explosion, the media were telling that these were two russian rockets. Later in the evening they changed narrative to one missile, this time not Russian but only Russian-made. There were questions asked whether Poland should activate the fourth NATO article, which means the consultation of NATO parties in the event of one of the members being in danger of teritory or security breach. A lot of false information circulated around polish TV, radio and internet. For example there was a pressure on polish officials to concede that the missile was Russian, most likely fired from the Kaliningrad region. The government though remained calm, called the national council meeting and once the council finished its deliberations, the Prime Minister and President gave the official statement to the public.
Official statements
Around 12 AM the Polish President, Andrzej Duda said that there is no confirmation on the missile origin but it was mostly likely an s300 rocket produced in 1970s by Russia. He also emphasized a few times that there is no indication that the rocket was aimed intentionally at Poland and moreover, that it was most likely a Ukrainian air defense system missile. In the end he assessed the activation of the fourth NATO protocol as unnecessary.
Both the President and the Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, ensured that the emergency measures have been implemented and that more troops have been sent to estern part of Poland in case of an escalation. Furthermore, they announced that Polish intelligence and special services cooperate with the USA and NATO in order to better understand the causes of the incident.
In on of the interviews, Mateusz Morawiecki informed the public that Polish skies are now thoroughly monitored by NATO’s fighters, namely Raptors and F-22’s. This statement was partly an answear to the public’s discontent at the condition of Polish and NATO air defense.
The public’s outrage
Before the first official government statement people were getting ready for the worst, including the war with Russia. Once it turned out, that Przewodów got hit by Ukrainian missiles, two main opinions formed: 1. Polish and NATO air defense systems failed and we are not safe; 2. If this is the Ukraine’s fault, shouldn’t Zelensky at least apologize for the incident instead of blaming Russia and calling for escalation?
I have already partly covered the government answear to the first point. The only thing they could do to appease the public was to ensure that more security measures were implemented. In addidion to that, polish generals and other military experts pointed out that the air defense system does not cover the whole territory and is limited to the most strategic targets like airports, power plants, railways etc.
Regarding the second point, Polish officials and the media repeat the following statement like a mantra: „This was ultimately the Russians fault because if they had not invaded Ukraine in the first place, the missile would not have to be fired and it would not have landed in Poland. The President and the Prime Minister emphasise on every occassion that on that particular day Russia launched around 100 missiles and the Ukraine probably fired around 300 to struck them down. In such circumstances one terrible accident like that could indeed happen.” As ridicoulous as it sounds, this argument probably appeals to a big part of the public. Although this opinion will be prevalent, there is still quite a lof of people not falling for the official narrative. Nevertheless, they have almost no political representation. Whenever someone tries to break out of the anti Russian and pro Ukrainian narrative, he is immediately called a Russian propagandist.
Polish military experts on the missile incident.
General Tomasz Drewniak(former Polish air-defence commander):
If the initial missile was launched from Belarus, then it is possible trajectory wise that the Ukrainian air missile defence malfunctioned which resulted in the Przewodów’s incident. On the other hand, if the Russian missiles were fired from eastern front, there is no way that a Ukrainian rocket would land in Poland after a failed attempt to intercept it.
He also stated that the Ukrainian missile must have been detected by Polish radars(he claims that they are very accurate). It could not be struck down though, because in times of peace such a decision must be validated by the President. Basically, the procedure takes too long and by the time the approval would be granted, the missile would have already hit the ground.
Regarding the Ukrainian missile, there are security measures which should have worked but for some reason have not. Once the missile missed the target it should have gone into autodestruction mode. If the autodestruction failed, the air defence operators who fired the rocket have the ability to send a signal telling it to change course or destruct itself.
Jaroslaw Wolski (military expert who gained big popularity on youtube right after the war in Ukraine broke out).
He hosted two guests claiming to know the matters of air missile warfare. They think that in fact it was not a rocket but only remnants of the rocket that hit Przewodów. Also, the Russian missile was likely launched from a bomber and not from some ground system.
Brigadier General, Jarosław Kraszewski(former chief of rocket an artilery forces):
The Ukrainian missile has been in Polish territory for about 5 to10 seconds before it hit the farm.
„Russians targeted eastern part of Ukraine on purpose to provoke such an incident and worsen the Polish-Ukrainian relations”
Jacek Bartosiak (one of the most cited Polish geopolitical analysts):
Russia is losing the land war with Ukraine and wants to exploit the USA’s unwilingness for escalation. Russia knew that such an incident would remind USA that the longer the conflict lasts, the bigger the risk of escalation is. Therefore, the events from Przewodów should push USA to seek a way of reinstating peace talks between Russia nad Ukraine. Apart from that Poland should demand more air defense systems and greater NATO engagement inside Polish borders.
Personally, I have not seen any mainstream personality ask the following, simple question. If this was indeed an air defence missile and it failed to intercept the Russian rocket, then where did this rocket land and what infrustructure did it damage/destroy? According to general Drewniak, Polish and NATO radars must have detected both the Ukrainian and Russian missile. We know it was s300, its range and speed so most of the prerequisites are met to answear my question. We just need to know where did the Russian missiles hit and the estimated time of the hits.