“Mahathir”, the Pakatan’s regressive gamble

On 8 January 2018, the Malaysian Opposition alliance “Pakatan Harapan” announced Mahathir Mohamed, the former leader of the incumbent, and the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, as the alliance’s prime ministerial candidate in the coming Malaysian General Elections, that is to be held on the 9th May 2018 (4 days from this article).

From my point of view, this is a massive gamble by Pakatan – and one that in my opinion, is a strategic mistake that I believe is likely to sabotage their performance in the coming election.

(Picture from Pakatan Harapan)

 

ANWAR
Pakatan Rakyat (formerly known as Barisan Alternatif), the alliance that risen with formation of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (People’s Justice Party) by Anwar Ibrahim’s wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, is a direct reaction against the rule of Mahathir and his politically motivated removal and jailing of Anwar, whom was the Deputy Prime Minister and widely recognised successor to Mahathir.

(Anwar. Photo from Berita Daily)

Anwar as a result of the conviction of sodomy, went to prison for 6 years (from April 1999). His conviction paved the way for Mahathir’s next preferred successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, giving Badawi the opportunity to ease into the position without major opposition. Anwar was continued to be prevented from going into politics until April 2008. The 2008 General Election was held in March 2008, effectively disqualifying him.

On 26 August 2008, Anwar finally return into mainstream politics with his victory in the Permatang Pauh by-election, and on his first speech in the Parliament, as he was announced as the leader of the Opposition alliance, he declared, “The Prime Minister has lost the mandate of the country and the nation” – the Prime Minister in question, was Mahathir’s successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

 

BADAWI
Despite being chosen as the successor, after deposing of Anwar, Mahathir was still unhappy. Many of the mega projects that were started by Mahathir was discontinued by Badawi, especially the failure to replace the Singapore-Malaysian causeway with the infamous “crooked bridge” was particularly irritating to Mahathir. (read more about the “crooked bridge” issue)

According to political observers, Mahathir is largely the reason why Badawi decided to resign in 2009. Mahathir started his tirade against Badawi, after his declaration to end the economic decisions and grandiose projects of Mahathir, just 3 years into his term (2006). Accusation of corruption and cronyism did not stop until Badawi handover the reign to Najib Razak, the current Malaysian Prime Minister.

(Najib, Mahathir and Badawi. Photo from GettyImages)

 

NAJIB
Possibly with the blessing of Mahathir (since Mahathir was still such a powerful and influential figure then), Najib Razak became the 6th Prime Minister of Malaysia. Somehow, weirdly, Najib also made “promises” to Mahathir (despite Mahathir is no longer in power), to revive his projects, including the crooked bridge as well as the double tracking & electrification of railway line from Johor Bahru to Padang Besar (and I suspect, there are more). (source: Dr M says not frivolous, ‘crooked bridge’ not the only reason for Najib criticisms)

(Najib with Mahathir. Photo from TV14)

However, Najib eventually turn out to be “uncontrollable” by Mahathir, and “went rogue”. The inability of Mahathir to control or influence Najib, coupled with Najib political astuteness to stay in power, and even survive the political crisis during the 1MDB corruption saga basically left Mahathir out of options.

This lack of options probably drove Mahathir to do the unthinkable: to start a political party, join the Opposition alliance, and apologise to Anwar (source: It was wrong of me to sack Anwar, says Mahathir)

 

MOTIVATIONS?
However, it is too easy to think that, the reason for Mahathir to run, is because of people and country. It is unlikely to be the case.

Pakatan Rakyat (not Pakatan Harapan; because the make up is different. PAS is not part of Harapan, but is part of Rakyat), did not need Mahathir, and to suggest that there is a lack of quality candidates that can bring Malaysia forward after defeating Barisan Nasional (the ruling coalition and incumbent), is preposterous. Anwar himself is as good as any statesman in Malaysia, in his ability to run the country, with the only problem is that, he is still in prison for a 2nd conviction of the sodomy charges.

It is also impossible that he is running just to revive his mega projects and build the crooked bridge: projects that he might not even live long enough to see it built if he succeeded to become Prime Minister once again, given that he is already 92 years old.

What would a 92 year old man worry and concern about, at the twilight of his life?

 

CHILDREN
Mahathir’s children had became significantly richer since Mahathir stepped down. Questions about how they had accumulated their massive amount of wealth, had been demanded by people across the entire political spectrum, unabated. Together, the entire family owns more than 480 companies, effectively placing the entire family as a billionaire family. (source: Investigate assets owned by Dr M’s children, PPBM’s Armada tells MACC)

The questioning had ramped up further in recent years. Jaringan Melayu Malaysia, a Malay group, openly demand Mahathir to come clean on the wealth source of his 2 sons, Mirzan and Tan Sri Mokhzani, in July 2015, while holding up a list of supercars that alledgedly worth a total of 36.2 million ringgit. (source: How did your son afford RM36.2m collection of supercars, Malay group asks Dr M)

Jan 2016, Mukhriz Mahathir, who was the Chief Minister of Kedah, declared to have loss the confidence of the UMNO Kedah leaders and was forced to resigned at the beginning of Feb 2016 after losing majority support. By end of Jun 2016, Mukhriz was expelled from UMNO.

(Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahatir announced his resignation as the Kedah Menteri Besar. Photo by TheMalaysianInsider.com)

In the same year of 2016, at the height of the 1MDB saga, Mahathir was accused by Najib and his aides, of “trying to save the political career of his son” Mukhriz Mahathir, while actively calling for Najib to step down. (source: ‘It’s absurd’: Mukhriz Mahathir lashes Malaysian government’s claims he has plotted with his father to take top job)

August 2016, Mahathir and Mukhriz formed the Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM). However, troubles brew even within his newly formed party.

(Members of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s supreme leadership council pose for a picture at the Perdana. Photo from Hornbill Unleashed)

In June 2017, PPBM Armada (Youth wing of PPBM) urged the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) to investigate assets owned by four children of Mahathir (Marina, Mokhzani, Mukhriz and Mirzan), in regards to their “unusual” wealth. (source: PPBM member lodges MACC report against Tun Mahathir, children; alleges they head 500 companies)

August 2017, Senior UMNO leaders called for a probe into Mahathir’s family wealth in retaliation, after revelations from Mahathir alleging that the current Deputy Prime Minister, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, had accumulated RM230 million in the 1990s. (source: Mahathir’s family wealth: Umno leaders call for probe) A few days later, Malaysia’s Inland Revenue Board raided companies owned by 3 of Mahathir’s sons. (source: Tax officers raid firms owned by Mahathir’s sons).

 

Thus given all the above mentioned situation, history and possible motivations – how could the Opposition alliance still accept him and his party into the alliance?

1 BILLION BRIBE?
October 2017, a story came out in Malaysia Today, claiming that Mahathir had bribed the Democratic Action Party (DAP) leader, Lim Kit Siang, a total of RM1 billion as part of a deal to not testify against him on the Bank Negara forex scandal that is being investigated, that Mukhriz will be guaranteed a safe parliamentary seat and that Mahathir will be the chairman of Opposition alliance, Pakatan Harapan. It was also reported within the article that RM750 million had already been paid. (source: Mahathir Bribed Kit Siang RM1 Billion To Become Pakatan’s Chairman)

(Lim Kit Siang and Mahathir. Photo from Utusan)

While the above is hard to affirm, suspiciously, DAP, a party that succeeded Singapore’s People’s Action Party, after Singapore’s withdrawal from the Malaysian Federation; a party that had been premiere Opposition party in Malaysia for it’s entire history, is willing to give up their famous rocket logo for a common Pakatan Harapan logo – a serious dilution of their brand. (source: No rocket logo for DAP in GE14, it will be a common Pakatan logo Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/04/05/no-rocket-logo-for-dap-in-ge14-it-will-be-a-common-pakatan-logo/#gMEPfjtTHR7S87JD.99)

 

WHY MAHATHIR THEN?
The Pakatan had been done pretty well in the previous election in 2013, and given the 1MDB scandal, the Saudi-Najib donation scandal as well as major sackings by Najib in an effective rearguard action – the people seemed to be ready to give Pakatan the mandate to take over a government that is perceived to be corrupted beyond belief.

Together with the jailing of, yet again, Anwar – to deny Pakatan a strong leader for the coming election – the ground swell of anger and support for a new government gains steam.

Najib also did not help himself, as he continues to divide the country racially with him inflammatory speeches of Malay Supremacy, driving both the Chinese and the Indian votes away from the ruling coalition.

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Then came the meltdown between Mahathir and Najib, then the sacking of Mahathir’s son, Mukhriz, from UMNO – it looks like the perfect circumstances for Pakatan to take the opportunity to pull more votes from BN, via the support Mahathir have with the Malay voters – giving Pakatan the absolutely chance of victory in the coming election.

However Mahathir isn’t just anyone, or just another politician or politician wannabe – he is a veteran and had no appetite of being just another member of the Pakatan. He wants power, he needs power and he have the influence & means to get it.

 

COMPLICATIONS
Somehow, a person that was the enemy of the oppositions, is now selected as the leader of the main opposition alliance – this is likely to be held in disdain by a majority of the voters.

(Anwar speaking to almost 80,000 people who attended the rally of Pakatan Rakyat ahead of the general elections PRU13, January 12, 2013. Photo by FotoWarung)

With Anwar (and his wife), the opposition voters know clearly, they are voting for a man who had been a victim of the system, and would definitely identify with the anti-government crowd to reform the system that had been seen as corrupt and unfair by so many.

(DAP Election Rally in Penang. Photo from AwesomePenang.com)

But with Anwar making up with Mahathir, and the alleged bribery of DAP chief – not to mention alliance between DAP and Mahathir (which makes no sense at all, given DAP had been fighting Mahathir’s rule for the entirety of his premiership) and for Mahathir to be declared the leader of an alliance that he had no part in for most, if not, the entire history of Pakatan (and as mentioned earlier in the article, was formed exactly because Mahathir sent Anwar to jail) – this entire match is made in political hell – and the voters know it.

The oxymoronic situation is compiled, not just by all the demand for investigation into Mahathir’s family wealth, but also with what happens after he is declared the leader of the Pakatan.

 

LEGACY PROBE
Mahathir’s open “rebellion” against BN, UMNO and Najib, readily placed him and his legacy in the cross hair of the ruling coalition. And this means more bad press for the Pakatan.

July 2017, Malaysia formally established a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) to investigate a multi-billion dollar foreign exchange scandal involving the central bank in the 1980s and 90s. (source: Malaysia announces royal inquiry to investigate Mahathir-era forex scandal Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-announces-royal-inquiry-to-investigate-mahathir-era-9042042)

(Anwar and Mahathir, when they were still friends. Photo from Mothership.sg)

December 2017, the RCI recommended Mahathir and Anwar to be investigated for criminal breach of trust offences for their role in the foreign exchanges losses at Malaysia’s central brank in the 1990s, in which the 2 of them were the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. (source: Probe Mahathir, Anwar for forex losses: Royal inquiry)

A probe that would never had happened, if Mahathir had not joined forces with Anwar (as it would still be in UMNO and BN’s interest to maintain Mahathir’s image and legacy), it is unlikely that Mahathir and Anwar would be able to escape unscathed – with the only exception that Mahathir actually succeed in becoming Prime Minister once again in this coming election.

(Mahathir at a rally in December 2017. Photo by New Straits Times)

And just when Mahathir thought that his legacy has started to become a source of trouble, his habit of speaking his mind unfiltered, which was okay when he was still the “father of modern Malaysia” – is apparently not okay at all, when he is a Opposition politician…

 

ACCIDENTAL WAR ON ROYALTY
On 14 Oct 2017, Mahathir described Najib as a descendant of Bugis pirates, to explain the alleged mismanagement of 1MDB. But while Mahathir’s thoughts probably focus mainly on the word “pirate”, the rest of Malaysia and the region focused on the word Bugis.

The uproar is significant.

Sultan of Selangor, whom has Bugis ancestry, urged authorities to investigate Mahathir for sedition, and proceeded to revoke all awards conferred to Mahathir and his wife.

(picture from Sabah Talk)

Sultan of Johor also exclaimed that he felt slighted with an interview with New Straits Times (source: Johor Sultan also hurt by Mahathir’s ‘Bugis pirate’ remark), saying that he is also of Bugis descent; and that Mahathir had hurt the feelings of the Bugis people in both Johor and Riau-Lingga.

The impact of the speech also reaches Indonesia, with Indonesia Vice-President Jusuf Halla, whom is Bugis, protest and demands apology from Mahathir for his remarks, linking Bugis people with pirates. (source: Mahathir’s Bugis remarks: Indonesian V-P wants apology)

 

JOHOR FACTOR
On April 7, Crown Prince of Johor, expressed his thoughts on the upcoming General Election via the facebook account of his football club, Johor Darul Ta’zim Football Club.

In this post, he not very subtly declares his opposition against Mahathir, and urged his people to vote for BN, while assuring the voters that he will take a more proactive role in politics, to ensure that the next government will be accountable to the people.

The apparent disdain by the royal families across Malaysia, whom Mahathir had done much to stripe them off their privileges and power during his time in power, is yet to be forgotten.

(Johor Crown Prince Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim (left). Photo by Malay Mail)

Going up against the royal families effectively also means, losing the Malay votes whom view their Sultans with reverence. The exact opposite of what Pakatan was expecting of Mahathir’s impact on their election prospect.

 

CHANCES OF PAKATAN LOOKS DIMMER THAN 2013

(photo by Mohamad Shahril Badri Saali, New Straits Times)

From my look of the macro situation in Malaysia now, the inclusion of Mahathir and his chaotic PPBM (filled with infighting and allegations of all sorts), had significantly damaged the Pakatan brand and the entire anti-Najib movement.

Najib had also cleared up the mess in the aftermath of the 1MDB scandal, reshuffled his party leadership, and had looked stronger than he had been in the previous election.

Chinese voters (including a majority of Indian voters) are disillusioned by the fact that their votes will contribute to a potential premiership by Mahathir, while the Malay voters are likely to follow the guidance of their respective royal families (which is against Mahathir), or to vote along Islamic lines (vote for PAS) – while there seem to be unlikely to be any increase in Malay votes for the Pakatan.

Supporters of Mahathir (which almost exclusively Malay) are also in a bind, whether to vote for him, or vote for the party he once served. Given the increasing hostile situation and lack of Royal backing for Mahathir, higher chances are that the Malay voters will still return to the “safer bet” of voting for BN/UMNO.

In the position of pro-Opposition voters, there seemed to be “no win” for them. Any vote, looks like a vote for BN/UMNO (since voting for Mahathir, is likely to be seen as yet another vote the same corrupt system).

 

MY PREDICTION
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Thus my prediction for the coming Malaysian Election would be a massive victory by the ruling party, improving their vote share by a good 5% swing to their favour.

Sorry supporters of Pakatan, I really not sure how the situation looks better than it was in 2013.

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Edit: The results are out!

Mahathir had won officially. =}

Congrats to Pakatan Harapan and Mahathir for proving me wrong and give the hope of change for the better to Malaysians!

=}

The hatred for Najib and BN is just way too deep for the Rakyat to care about Mahathir; and especially Mahathir’s promise to request for Royal Pardon for Anwar and give up the Prime Minister seat to Anwar ← and this is particularly important as the de facto leader of the Opposition is in fact Anwar, not Mahathir.

Congrats to all Malaysians that voted for change. =}