Ukraine
Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk
REPORTS & ANALYSIS
Twenty-First Century Artillery: What Can We Learn From the War in Ukraine?
The war in Ukraine, as the first high-intensity near-symmetrical conflict... Read more →
Day 1000 Special: A Retrospection; Strategic Analysis
As the Ukraine war crosses its 1,000th day, we reflect... Read more →
Frontline Changes Report – Day 967-968 (17-18 October 2024)
Russian forces tried a blitz attack towards Viktorovka, which AGAIN,... Read more →
Ukraine War SITREP – Day 961, 11 October 2024
Russian forces had conquered Ostrivske, which is the final settlement... Read more →
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 956 (6 October 2024)
Ukrainian forces expanded foothold by capturing the region between Novy... Read more →
STRATEGIC MAP
The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map.
SITREP (VIDEO)
Articles (Geopolitics)
Day 1000 Special: A Retrospection; Strategic Analysis
As the Ukraine war crosses its 1,000th day, we reflect... Read more →
The Actual Battle of Ukraine – Odessa
The crown jewel in Ukraine is Odessa. It’s the logistical... Read more →
Hamas-Israeli War 2023: Deep Analysis
The Surprise Attack by Hamas and Israel’s Response Israel finds... Read more →
Ukraine Seeks Western Assistance for Strikes on Iran and Syria
In a recent and startling development, Ukraine has made an... Read more →
POLAND WILL NO LONGER ARM UKRAINE, after Ukraine complains to WTO over grain ban in Poland
In a series of recent developments, tensions have flared between... Read more →
SITUATION OVERVIEW
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
- Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
- Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
- Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)
COMPROMISE
- Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
- De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Point of view
"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."
President
Russia
... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
Point of view
"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.
(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.
We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"
President
Russia
... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."
In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.
DIPLOMACY
Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia
President
Ukraine
... announced in a televised statement.
Point of view
"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.
But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine
... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
- Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
- Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
- No objection against joining European Union
- 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
- Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue
COMPROMISE
- Pledge not to join any military alliances
- Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
- Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
- Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons
Point of view
"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"
President
Ukraine
... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.
Point of view
"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."
NATO
... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.
Point of view
"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.
There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.
But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"
President
United States
... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.
Point of view
"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."
President
United States
... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.
Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.
STRATEGIC PICTURE
Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus
Belarus
... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.
Point of view
"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.
This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"
... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .
Point of view
"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.
This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.
We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."
President
European Comission
... at a press conference.
LATEST ON UKRAINE
Twenty-First Century Artillery: What Can We Learn From the War in Ukraine?
The war in Ukraine, as the first high-intensity near-symmetrical conflict of the 21st century, has offered some critical lessons on modern warfare and the use of artillery systems, whose role is constantly evolving in a technologically advanced battlefield, where traditional firepower is enhanced by tools like drones and precision-guided systems. The conflict underscores the importance…
Day 1000 Special: A Retrospection; Strategic Analysis
As the Ukraine war crosses its 1,000th day, we reflect on its enduring impact, the evolving battlefield dynamics, and the broader strategic implications. The war has not only reshaped Ukraine’s landscape but has also influenced global geopolitics, testing the resolve of nations and the resilience of those involved. The Geopolitical Chessboard: Causes and Impacts The…
Frontline Changes Report – Day 967-968 (17-18 October 2024)
Russian forces tried a blitz attack towards Viktorovka, which AGAIN, a armored carrier bumped into a Ukrainian tank which killed it at point blank range. But the attack points to the high possibility that the Russian forces had captured the area north of Novoivanovka. The attack towards Viktorovka, coupled with the attack on Malaya Loknya…
Ukraine War SITREP – Day 961, 11 October 2024
Russian forces had conquered Ostrivske, which is the final settlement Russia need to take before the road to Kurakhove is open. Confirmation of the capture comes from geolocation, as it’s a small settlement, capture if certain. Kurakhove is the regional HQ for the Ukrainian forces in the south Donetsk frontlines; and it is heavily fortified…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 956 (6 October 2024)
Ukrainian forces expanded foothold by capturing the region between Novy Put and Medvezhe (around Obod). Glushkovo Sector, Kursk Front – Russian forces finally made advances within the Kursk Front, with capture western part of Liubimovka and part of the forest west of Liubimovka. Geolocation south of Kalinov invalidated Ukrainian claim of capture of Kalinov, signals…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 925 (5 Sept 2024)
DPA assessed that the northern most extent of the Ukrainian front had already been retaken by the Russian, through the combination of the severe lack of reporting and geolocation of any Ukrainian troops in the area, as well as taking into consideration of the Russian perspective of what is the frontline is likely to be…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – 18 August 2024 (Day 907)
Ukrainian forces has begun the operation to pincer the entire Glushkovo region from two sides, with the Ukrainian entering Kursk oblast from a new border incursion, allegedly capturing the border village of Otruba. On the current “western sector”, Ukrainian sources claim the capture of Apanasovka and Snagost with fighting already reported at Komarovka. Kursk Front…
[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 804 (7/5): UKRAINE ended Russian breakout phase; RF restart ops at Orikhiv
Lack of progress over the Orthodox Easter and Russian President’s inauguration day effectively marks the end of the Russian break out at the Avdiivka Front. Ukrainian forces likely to have successfully reorganized it’s defenses and had slowed Russian progress back to a crawl. Russian forces on the other hand restarted offensive operations over at the…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 799 (2 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces expanded control over Kyslivka slightly, signifying possible strong resistance by the Ukrainian forces on the western part of Kyslivka Russian forces finally entered Kotlyarivka from the north from Kyslivka. Russian assault operations on Kotlyarivka are done concurrently with attacks all around the salient south of the settlement. AVDIIVKA FRONT Russian forces…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 798 (1 May 2024)
KUPYANSK FRONT KUPYANSK FRONT Russian forces made progress north of Novoyehorivka, which is a high ground over looking the town. Watch the SITREP here: https://youtu.be/gWxTs3jJe3w Frontline Changes Report here: https://youtu.be/nl3VI9kfsM8 BAKHMUT FRONT Russian forces reentered the NW parts of Novy neighborhood of Chasiv Yar. However, a later geolocation of thermobaric shelling at a nearby location…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 797 (30 April 2024)
Watch the Full Report here: https://youtu.be/BVpZyZcT2rk KREMINNA FRONT Ukrainian forces counterattacked SE of Yampolivka retaking previously held treeline/position from the Russians. Confirmed by geolocation. BAKHMUT FRONT After more than week or two of rumor of Russian forces reaching the canal at the Bakhmut Front, we finally have geolocation confirming Russian presence at the edge of…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 793 (26 April 2024)
AVDIIVKA FRONT Ukrainian forces got massively ejected from eastern Novokalynove and eastern regions of Keramik. Based on Ukrainian mapping, Russian forces had entered into Keramik for the first time. Russian mapping suggest the entire eastern part of Novokalynove is taken. The huge frontline change suggest that Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn from these regions ahead…
Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report – Day 792 (25 April 2024)
AVDIIVKA FRONT According to Russian sources, Russian forces capture the northern part of Ocheretyne and broke towards Arkhanhelske. Given how extended that line is, DPA do not expect this line to hold, as it would likely be vulnerable to being cut off or have resupply/reinforcement becoming an issue. Russian forces also expanded their control south…
The Actual Battle of Ukraine – Odessa
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Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 727-729, 20-22 Feb 2024
Battle of Ivaniske begins as Russian forces storms into the eastern part of Ivanivske, while Ukrainian forces lost control of the entire NE outskirt of Ivanivske. ~Bakhmut Front Russian forces entered Sjeverne from the east after the entire Ukraine line between Sjeverne and Avdiivka City collapsed. ~Avdiivka Front Russian forces progressively expanded control west of…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 724, 17 Feb 2024
A Russian forces assault is geolocated on a treeline south of Robotyne. This location is previously understood to be under Ukrainian control. This confirms the reports that an offensive operation is under way against Robotyne. Current rumors include Russian forces reaching the western outskirt of Robotyne. But this is not yet corroborated by any of…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 722, 15 Feb 2024
In the northern fronts of the Battle of Avdiivka, Russian forces head both west and south from the breakthrough west of Avdiivka city, in the direction of Lastochkyne and the final dirt road out of the city. Russian forces also pushed north from the entry point of the Lastochkyne road into the Avdiivka City, into…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 721, 14 Feb 2024
Russian forces are geolocated to be attack SE of Pobjeda – their presence confirm Russian forces had taken grounds in that area, pushing towards the south of Pobjeda. ~ Donetsk Front Russian forces geolocated on the western outskirt of Marinka, invalidating Ukrainian claims, and corroborating Russian claims of the frontline. ~Donetsk Front New development is…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 720, 13 Feb 2024
Russian forces captured a large swath of territory along the western road of the city in North Avdiivka, effectively cutting the Ukrainian forces in the rest of the city away from resupply and reinforcement. Operational encirclement is now official. There is still a small road off the Khimik neighborhood for their last chance to escape…
Russian advanced at Bakhmut Front and Donetsk Front – 12 Feb 2024
Russian forces advanced in the north of Ivanivske, threatening to envelope the settlement from the direction, expanding the frontlines – that would then allow the Russians to start invading into the town itself. Full report here: [ Bakhmut Front ] Verge of the beginning of Battle of Ivanivske; if Russia keep pushing here Russian forces…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 718, 11 Feb 2024
Russian forces continue to expand the zone of control in the northern part of Avdiivka city, in the direction of where reinforcement is expected to come (from the road via Lastochkyne). Reinforcement/resupply is now not expected to be able to pass through to the rest of the Avdiivka city as a result. Frontline to the…
Ukraine Frontline Changes Report – Day 717, 10 Feb 2024
Russian forces continues its daily advances in the northern part of Avdiivka as the Ukrainian defense has entirely crumbled (given the fact that Russia could advance this much daily) The progress is faster than what happened during the Battle of Bakhmut, objectively speaking. Russian forces pushes south, instead of west, probably due to incoming Ukrainian…
DPA War Expectation Guide (1 Nov 2023)
Not all wars are created equal. And not all actors are fighting the same war, despite they are in the same battle. Manage your expectations, and stop being surprised/outraged.
Russia launches massive Avdiivka Offensive
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Leadership Changes in Ukrainian Defense Ministry amid Ongoing Conflict
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Beyond the Ukraine Russian Conflict and the Implication and Consequences to Europe.
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[ Bakhmut Front ] PRIGOZHIN/WAGNER ANNOUNCE CAPTURE OF BAKHMUT; Not acknowledged by Ukraine side yet
Latest Russian frontline at Bakhmut City. Rybar’s mapping (pro-russian) had it extended well to the tree lines west of Bakhmut City. Russian forces are already preparing defense lines to defend the city. Ukrainian mappings had not caught up nor even acknowledged Wagner’s claims. Last update still talking about fighting at SW corner of Bakhmut. Rumors…
UKRAINE LAUNCH BAKHMUT OFFENSIVE – Huge amount of arty at Kherson; Zaporizhzhia offensive imminent
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[ Bakhmut ] UKRAINE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE – in the NWW part of city; Ukraine counter offensive begun
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian forces launched their counter offensive in the Bakhmut Front as the Ukrainian “last line of defense” in the Northwest-West (NWW) part of Bakhmut began to be under siege. Ukrainian counterattacked from Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka. In the NWW part of Bakhmut where the low-rise residential area, holds the…
Did UN voted to recognise Russian aggression on Ukraine?
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UKRAINE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS REPORTED AT AVDIIVKA & BAKHMUT FRONT – Zaporizhzhia Offensive Imminent!
Update on Ukrainian Counter Offensive: Reports of Ukrainian forces deployed into the forward regions of the Zaporizhzhia Front at Orikhiv, Shcherbaky, Bilohirya, Charivne and Hulyaipole. Ukrainian offensive operations are reported on the 29th April happening concurrently at the Avdiivka and Bakhmut Front. Ukrainian forces attacked Vodyane in 2 different waves west of Avdiivka city, while…
RUSSIAN KILL BOX WORKING AS INTENDED – Ukrainian forces handicapping themselves with their strategy
Update on Russian Offensive: Russia’s Winter Offensive, transited into Spring Offensive – and its still ongoing – despite the fact the mainstream media had entirely forgotten about it with the hype mainly focusing on the impending Ukrainian Spring Offensive. Russian forces continues to hold their lines, bracing for the Ukrainian offensive, while pounding on any…
[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER FORCES CLOSED UP ON THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF “THE CITADEL” – Fighting in the North
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Latest reports suggest that the Russian forces have captured the entire garage area as well as the area around the Bakhmut Medical College. As a result, the Russian forces has effectively closed up the entire eastern surrounding of the western high-rise neighborhood, aka the Bakhmut Citadel. Fighting resumed on the…
[ BAKHMUT ] “BACK TO THE KEEP!!!” – Ukrainian forces abandon frontlines to the last defense line
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Massive changes to the frontlines as information came from all sources (pro-ukr, pro-rus, neutral) – that the Ukrainian forces has conducted withdrawn from the current active frontlines within Bakhmut. Given the tactical situation within Bakhmut, it looks like the Ukrainian forces has now fallen back to their last line of…
Singapore’s position on Russia-Ukraine War & it’s implication
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PRIGOZHIN: MUD NOT DRY YET – Ukraine land South of Kherson; Heavy probing in Kupyansk-Svatove Front
Update on Ukrainian Counter Offensive: Wagner PMC’s boss, Prigozhin gave insight on the environmental situation that the ground currently is still very muddy, and it would be another 10 days (from 22 April) before the ground would be dry. The reason why the Ukrainians have yet to launch their offensive. Ukrainian forces however are not…
[ BAKHMUT ] WW1-STYLE FIGHTING ON KHROMOVE ROAD – Russians capture high-rises West of train station
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces captured high rise buildings that previous formed a formidable defense lines west of the Bakhmut Railway Station no.2. This complicates the defensive posture of the Ukrainian forces within Bakhmut. From the north, Russian forces begun their attack into the garage region; while still trying to move towards the…
[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER CAPTURE EVERYTHING EAST OF RAILWAY – Khromove road cut; Ukr counter SW of Bakhmut
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Latest geolocation from Bakhmut City suggest that the Ukrainian forces had entirely withdrawn from the eastern side of the railway line that goes through the center of Bakhmut City. Russian forces continue to make incremental progress in the northern frontlines as the Ukrainian forces are making a stand in the…
Ukrainian Misinformation Telegram Network discovered by Russian hackers
This is the link to the report by the 3 Russian hacker group (Joker DPR, Beregini, NemeZida) that discovered the entire Ukrainian network of “Russian” telegram channels that the Ukrainians used to publish misinformation as well as solicit money “for the Russian troops”. https://nemez1da.ru/rassledovaniya/strong-em-u-volk-v-ovechej-shkure-u-em-strong/ Unfortunately, I am unable to open the website. I bet many…
[ BAKHMUT ] NORTHERN FRONTLINE COLLAPSED – Railway Station confirmed captured by Russian forces
Update from the Bakhmut Front: The NW, NNW Bakhmut frontline suffered a catastrophic collapse as Russian forces broke through and captured most of the NW districts. The industrial area were the grain elevator is, as well as the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is confirmed to be captured by Russian forces. The Ukrainian forces is holding…
REINFORCEMENT TO BAKHMUT DENIED – Wagner & VDV forces enters Bohdanivka; Railway station disputes
Update from the Bakhmut Front: The information of capture of the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is rolled back by DeepStateUA, as the station remains under the gray zone, with fighting still ongoing in the area. With the waning Ukrainian artillery support, Russian forces pressed their advantage on Khromove and Ivanivske. First reports of Russian forces…
[ Zaporizhzhia ] RUSSIA TOOK OUT 2 HIMARS AT ORIKHIV – Heavy bombardment all around Orikhiv region
Update from the Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian forces reportedly bombarded a warehouse next to the train station at Orikhiv with Smerch MLRS and Hyacinth artillery. 2 x HIMARS launchers, 1 x M777 artillery as well as other equipments + ammunition had been destroyed. Heavy shelling is also reported all around the Orikhiv region, suggesting major build…
[ BAKHMUT ] HEAVY FIGHTING AT CENTRAL TRAIN STATION – VDV forces reportedly now fighting in Bakhmut
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Heavy fighting for the Bakhmut central train station (No.2) was raging for the past 3 days; latest unconfirmed information suggests that the Ukrainian forces had been pushed out from the station in the evening of 10th April 2023. Ukrainian salient south and southeast of Avangard stadium had shrinked further, albeit…
UKRAINE MINING OSKIL RIVER BANKS – counter at Vodyane | Ukraine “Spring Offensive” Tracking: 8-10/4
Ukraine Spring Offensive Update: Ukrainian forces restarted probing Russian lines after 3 day pause that coincided with the news of NATO-US-Ukraine military document leak. Probing actions were reported at Synkivka and Novoselivske in the Kupyansk-Svatove Front, Volodymyrivka and Novosilka at the Donetsk Front. Counter offensive operations were reported NE of Vodyane at the Avdiivka front.…