Shifting Alliances: The Geopolitical Dynamics of Niger’s Departure from ECOWAS and the West’s Influence
The Americans did not support the French in their plans to invade Niger, recognizing the potential pitfalls of such an action. It was clear that the involvement of Italy and Germany was tentative at best. Following threats from Victoria Nuland, the French quickly abandoned their mission. Even France’s intentions to maintain their embassy and military base near the uranium mines in Agadez were thwarted. There was a palpable sense that the Americans had brokered a deal detrimental to French interests.
Subsequently, American forces regrouped at the Agadez military airfield and maintained a low profile. Early in the year, the newly appointed Prime Minister embarked on diplomatic visits to Serbia, Russia, and Iran, including several days of meetings in Moscow. Following these visits, Niger, along with Burkina Faso and Mali, announced their departure from the CEDEAO/ECOWAS and their exit from the Franc monetary union, signaling plans to establish their own currency.
Weeks later, an American emergency team arrived unannounced, intending to meet with the appointed president of Niger. Their efforts were fruitless, and the meeting at the airport with local officials went poorly. Shortly thereafter, a Nigerien official, clearly aggrieved, made emphatic statements demanding the departure of US troops and the closure of American military bases, citing their illegality.
Last week, a CEDEAO/ECOWAS meeting issued a statement seemingly out of touch with reality, discussing the departure of the three countries as if it were pending, rather than acknowledging their already finalized exit.
It’s important to remember that the Nigerien coup was not initially aligned with pro-Russian sentiments. It began as a palace revolution with an anti-French undertone and quickly evolved into a popular movement as citizens took to the streets demanding various social, political, and economic reforms. The French response was perceived as insensitive, fueling anti-French riots and, by extension, sentiments of anti-neocolonialism. When Western powers attempted to portray the coup as orchestrated by Russia, the situation deteriorated further as makeshift Russian flags began to appear nationwide. Over time, no significant Russian involvement emerged.
The sanctions imposed by the CEDEAO/ECOWAS compelled Niger to seek new allies. Mali and Burkina Faso were supportive, but it was clear that stronger support was needed. With no conciliation coming from the West, Niger found it straightforward to choose a new ally. Following Russia’s recent military successes, such as the capture of Avdiivka, Russia has been vocally asserting its triumphs, highlighted in yesterday’s Security Council meeting. Niger is unlikely to be the last country to pivot in this direction. Perhaps a cultural visit by Pjotr Tolstoy to Senegal could be on the horizon.