China totally playing into Trump’s hands.
China issued retaliatory tariffs against Trump’s “Liberation Day Reciprocal Tariff” – as a result, Trump had announced that they will impose additional 50% tariff on China, effective April 9th 2025 if China do not retract their tariff.
China totally playing into Trump’s hands. I just want to say early: the aim is to embargo China entirely – to cut trade entirely – and will force the entire world to cut/reduce trade with it. Aim is to force China into abandoning their economic model that had been gaming the international system (by selling good thats below/at cost price for everyone else via combination of multiple methods) and bring that back in line with the US-led order.
Qns: Can you please explain if by “played into Trumps hands” you mean the retaliatory tariffs? And also, since it has just happened, how do you see things playing out with retaliation vs without retaliation.
Trump wants to take back all the manufacturing that went to China as well as to force China into economic reforms to go more inline with actual WTO standards (now, China is entirely gaming the system – for example, their products are sold at cost price effectively, killing all competitions)
The more China retaliates, the more excuses Trump have to basically kill all trade with China – and then he will leverage the “liberation day tariffs” to force the entire world to do the same against China.
It will be challenging and contentious for sure – and it will be alot of pain for the bystanding countries – but when you are forced into taking a side – alot of countries might choose USA. (natural resource extraction countries will choose china though)
Which would you choose? A big market to sell to; or someone to sell you cheap goods?
And if China dont retaliate, the results will largely be the same for China – huge amount of China goods will still be priced out of competition in USA… The reduced export will similarly force them into economic recession and eventual economic reform. There is actually no win for China. This is why China is so “fierce” right now – because, either way is “die” – might as well fight.
Which would you choose? A big market to sell to; or someone to sell you cheap goods?
But thus increasing the likelihood of a black swan event. In 2020, its Covid19, just when they are signing the trade agreement with the Trump admin in the first term. This time round, I believe it would be a war – likely on Taiwan (as per my projection video/article I had wrote)