Thailand-Cambodia War will become the Trojan Horse for a permanent China military presence in Indochina
There isnt a lot of logical conclusions as to why Cambodia would have used Grad MLRS to shell civilian areas, which is clearly an escalation to a major war
As I had reported in my Day 1 SITREP on the Thailand – Cambodia conflict, it was extremely unclear as to why, the weaker and smaller country of the two, whom also have a military that is a lot weaker than it’s adversary, would decide to “ask for a war” by shelling civilian areas with a grad launcher.
Cambodians claim that they have a right to defend – which I do not deny they do – and rightfully so as they do have good claims on the disputed areas of the borders… but in which universe is launching dumb rockets into civilian areas a form of “defense”?
Inevitably, the shelling took at least 11 civilian lives were lost from these shelling – and because of what? “Thai soldiers erecting some barb wires”?
From multiple perspectives looking at this deliberate escalation from Cambodia (including planting landmines in disputed zones to release private conversations between the two country’s leaders) – Cambodia is planning something – and this “war” is part of the plan….
…but what is the final outcome Cambodia or Hun Sen is looking for?
China, whom is the “big brother” of Cambodia, also clearly shouldn’t want a war to happen to it’s little brother, whom on paper, have no chance of winning. And China, lacking the US-style military industrial complex, aren’t one that encourages wars, so that certain companies can make some money.
What is there to gain, to fight a losing war? Cambodia can’t possibly go into this war without consulting or permission from their big brother…
After giving this a very deep thought overnight, I came to plausible outcome – that would actually benefit both Cambodia and China… this war is a trojan horse.
China had been eyeing a naval base / military presence in Cambodia for a long time – but the geopolitics of the region made it nearly impossible for Cambodia to green light a plan that would introduce a major power into ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) region – which was literally going against the concept of why we needed ASEAN at the first place.
Cambodia’s Ream naval base was already under scrutiny after it was constructed with the help of China, and with piers that is big enough to host naval ship the size that Cambodia do not possess – in fact, big enough to even accommodate the largest China’s aircraft carrier. 2 x China covettes were already effectively permanently based there (despite Cambodia claiming they aren’t).
Cambodia’s constitution currently do not allow foreign military to base in the country.
However, a war can change that.
Cambodia can make use of the war with Thailand, as an excuse, that the small and weak country cannot defend itself sufficiently against two military powerhouse in Thailand and Vietnam – and that having a friendly brotherly nation like China to guarantee it’s independence and security, would be the perfect way to create “military power balance” for Cambodia vis-a-vis it’s stronger neighbours.
Not only does this ensures Cambodia’s military power with permanent presence of the Chinese military – it would bring about an even closer tie with China, inviting massive investment from China in the country, and potentially become the “Israel of the Middle East” in South East Asia, but for the geopolitical interests of China (instead of USA).
If this “ploy” come to past, Cambodia could potentially herald a new era of prosperity with the support of China and make Cambodia a power player in ASEAN geopolitics, could even overpower Vietnam and Thailand in regional matters. China could potentially also train and upgrade Cambodia’s military to a modern fighting force that can rival Thailand and Vietnam in tech and quality of the equipment, in such an arrangement – and perhaps, even pull off a “Putin” by surprisingly allying Cambodia into a military alliance, like what Putin did with North Korea to the surprise of both South Korea and China.
The entire geopolitics and power balance would alter significantly in the region.
Vietnam and Thailand would be the most affected in such a new normal: Vietnam would be “pincered” by Chinese military with Hainan Island and Paracel Islands military bases in the east, and Cambodia on the west. Thailand’s preference to balance relationship with all sides would be severely hampered with this looming threat of a super power’s military parking it’s forces just next door, constantly putting Thailand on notice – weakening Thailand’s flexibility in foreign policy.
I had always explained that, China’s militarisation of South China Sea is like a permanent knife pointing to the throat of ASEAN – but a China military presense in Cambodia would be the knife literally stabbed into ASEAN. And when the knife is in ASEAN, anytime China want ASEAN to do anything or simply get to their knees, all they need to do is simply twisting the knife in the flesh – and ASEAN will fall to it’s knees uncontrollably.
And in worst case scenario, like a World War situation, China could use Cambodia, much like how Imperial Japan used Vietnam in World War 2, as a launchpad for campaigns against Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. Although, I’m getting way ahead of myself if we are to think this far any deeper.
Anyway, this is just a hypothesis – a theory – on why Cambodia would find escalating a conflict with Thailand into a potential major war, be beneficial to it’s national interests.
There isnt really that much other options or possibilities in my opinion.
For now, given the bravado and sureness displayed by Cambodia in this conflict so far, they must have a clear plan as to where this is going to lead to – and I afraid, my hypothesis might actually just be it.