The Actual Battle of Ukraine – Odessa
The crown jewel in Ukraine is Odessa. It’s the logistical hub and Ukraine’s economic lifeline. Without it, Ukraine will be a rump state with no global trade future. In terms of the battle for Odessa, we will have to talk about Nikolaev on one side, and Transnistria on the other. Moldova is the last state not in NATO and the European Union but its neighbour Romania is the main logistical hub for NATO ISR assets covering the Black Sea and supply logistics to Ukraine. The board is set – and the pieces are moving.
First, the importance of Odessa. The battle of Snake Island and the grain deal really encapsulated Odessa’s strategic importance. Its ports cannot be overstated as the existential lifeline for Ukraine. Apart from that, Odessa is a symbol – both for Ukrainian nationalists, as they stamped out the pro-Russian resistance in 2014 culminating the massacre of the House of Trade Unions and for Russians, as Secretary of the Security Council Medvedev put it, ‘Odessa is a Russian City, come home!’ (paraphrased). And indeed, on the grand chessboard, NATO control of Odessa would null the strategic advantage of controlling Crimea and put the Russian Black Sea Fleet into a permanent defensive posture.
Odessa is the key to the Black Sea today, as it was even in the late 1700s, when like Sunak today, William Pitt the Younger kicked up a fuss about Russia taking Ochakov from the Ottomans. That was the Odessa of the 1790s – same logic. Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis – or it seems not!
Secondly, why are we even talking about it now? Well, Western observers seem to agree that Ukraine is teetering on the brink. Russia’s intentions after a breakthrough are quite obvious, and Odessa, a key Russian-speaking city that posed significant resistance to ukrainisation even after 2014, is an obvious key target. That’s why Macron and other European officials as well as media have indicated Odessa as a possible direction for an interventionist garrison. The naïve assumption is of course that Russia will fear bombing French troops, which is a notion that persists despite Deputy Tolstoy’s very clear explanation of the contrary to French media.
Thirdly, the most likely scenario. In Russia the general opinion is that NATO countries will independently move contingents into Ukraine, in addition to the ‘volunteers’ already on the front. Sources on the ground already say that foreigners are hanging about. In recent developments, an increased presence of German and American military personnel has been noted conducting patrols across the expansive fields along Moldova’s border. This heightened activity points towards a concerted effort to bolster security and surveillance in the region. Concurrently, French forces have been engaged in detailed reconnaissance missions around the critical Danube ports located within the Odessa oblast. These ports hold strategic importance, serving as vital nodes for the logistics of arms shipments and the movement of personnel, essential for ongoing military operations.
The strategic rationale behind these coordinated international actions appears to be two-fold. Firstly, the establishment of a comprehensive no-fly zone is being pursued. This initiative is critical in neutralizing potential aerial threats and establishing a controlled airspace, thereby providing a tactical advantage. Following the successful imposition of a no-fly zone, the allied forces aim to initiate a phased occupation of the region. This strategic occupation is not merely territorial but is aimed at transforming Odessa into a linchpin of Western military and logistical capabilities, reminiscent of the historical strategic importance of Gibraltar.
Oleg Yanovsky
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Political Commentator from Moscow, Russia