The broken love affair between Philippines and China
Reading the comments from my video reporting on the South China Sea incident, I can’t help but be surprised for the fact that many people do not know Philippines have military alliance with USA.
Complaining about US having troops and bases in Philippines is like complaining Russia having troops and bases in Belarus.
That is of course perfectly fine if you are anti-Russia and anti-USA/Philippines at the same time.
Philippines says did not consider invoking US pact over recent clash with Chinese coast guard
MANILA: A South China Sea confrontation this week, in which the Chinese coast guard personnel brandished weapons and rammed Philippine naval vessels, did not trigger Manila’s mutual defence pact with the United States, a spokesperson for President Ferdinand Marcos said on Friday (Jun 21).
“We are not yet ready to consider this as an armed attack,” executive secretary Lucas Bersamin told reporters when asked if Manila would ask Washington to honour the 1951 treaty.
The pact requires both parties to come to the other’s defence in case of an “armed attack” against vessels, aircraft, military and coast guard anywhere in the Pacific theatre, which Washington says includes the South China Sea.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/south-china-sea-philippines-coast-guard-clash-united-states-defence-pact-4426996
And it is also heart-wrenching that, people are not getting my message right despite I spoke for so long in the video as well as in previous occasions.
Might is Right. Power is power.
Whoever can defend their claim militarily conquers the territory… until they can’t.
It’s the same position I have on the Ukraine War, on Crimea, on Israel-Palestine – and its the same on South China Sea / Spratly Islands.
Philippines can claim all they want, but they need to be able to enforce the claim. The fact that they can’t, and probably never will be able to on their own, since they probably will never have a more powerful navy than China (or even Taiwan R.O.C) – they are left with no options but to virtue signal, win public opinions, and get their “big bro” USA to reinforce them.
Whether they will be Ukraine 2.0 depends on the Philippines leadership. Philippines military is a joke compared to Ukraine, if a war breaks out, USA will be the one doing most of the fighting – versus in Ukraine, Ukraine does nearly all of the fighting on their own (+ mercs). So to me, its not comparable. (Taiwan would more likely be a Ukraine 2.0 as they can fight on their own)
I dont like China’s claim, and I think their claim is weak.
BUT, just like Crimea, if China have the guts to conquer it all and enforce military jurisdiction against all countries traversing through the SCS – then sure, it is theirs then…. until they cannot afford to maintain that claim and control.
This is realpolitik.
All these virtue signaling and disregard of Filipinos perspective is so NAFO-ish. You guys (who does this) need to do better.
Because things are not going to move in the way you imagine if you disregard the interests/concerns of the rest of South East Asian countries.
If its so simple, China would have conquered the entire SCS now. (same as Taiwan issue).
And for those never follow closely, and still getting brainwashed by anti-US media/channels about how Duterte had a good relationship with China, you clearly indeed didnt follow Philippines geopolitics closely:
Duterte started his term to ‘pivot’ to Russia and China – to basically, “not do the same thing and expect a different result”. He want to give a non-US-centric foreign policy a chance.
“We have to talk and what I need from China is not anger,” said Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte just over a month before winning the 2016 elections during an interview with Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. “What I need from China is help to develop my country,” the then-presidential candidate clarified in one of his most illuminating pre-election interviews.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/how-duterte-fell-for-chinas-bait-and-switch/
Deals were made, compromises were made (all these while, Duterte conducted reform of the Philippines military, militarising it to prepare for the worst scenario)
By the end of Duterte’s tenure as Philippines President, he got disillusioned by China. All the promised investments never came. China also never compromised a bit in the South China Sea dispute.
His warm embrace of China never produced the results he expected. He hoped, for instance, that he would be able to strike a deal on joint exploration of disputed regions in the South China Sea (known in Manila as the West Philippine Sea) and leverage Beijing’s massive infrastructure and investment plan, the Belt and Road Initiative, to support his own “Build! Build! Build!” infrastructure plan. Yet now Duterte has less than a year left in office—his single six-year term ends in June 2022, as required by the Philippine Constitution—and none of those dreams has come to fruition.
To make matters worse, in recent years Beijing has amped up its assertiveness in the South China Sea. In 2019 and early 2020, China encircled the Philippines’ Thitu Island (also known as Pag-asa) with hundreds of militia boats, apparently to prevent Philippine authorities from upgrading the island’s runway and making other infrastructure improvements. Then in January this year, China authorized its coast guard to fire upon foreign vessels as needed, and in March it moored more than 200 Chinese fishing boats—many of which were likely maritime militia vessels—at the disputed Whitsun Reef.
These incidents tremendously complicated Duterte’s China-friendly approach and made outreach to Washington more appealing.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/02/duterte-china-philippines-united-states-defense-military-geopolitics/
During his October 2016 visit, China offered Duterte $24 billion in investments, including big-ticket infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Shortly after, the two sides even discussed joint patrols in the heavily disputed Scarborough Shoal, as well as potential joint ecological preservation schemes in the fisheries-rich area.
As Duterte enters his twilight months in office, however, the two neighbors have failed to finalize even a single big-ticket infrastructure project. Nor have the Philippines and China clinched any cooperative agreement in the disputed waters or a major defense agreement. If anything, the South China Sea disputes have festered, with China now having fully militarized a whole host of Philippine-claimed land features in the area.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/how-duterte-fell-for-chinas-bait-and-switch/
You guys who claim to know better than me – clearly knows nothing about the situation between Philippines and China.
I brought my receipts.
Slava DPAni.