Ukraine
Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk
REPORTS & ANALYSIS
STRATEGIC MAP
The above is an estimation based on information we are collect from open source intelligence and news reporting. We are not responsible for any mishap, misjudgment or losses resulted in the usage of the information presented in this map.
SITREP (VIDEO)
SITUATION OVERVIEW
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
- Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
- Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
- Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)
COMPROMISE
- Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
- De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.
Point of view
"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."
President
Russia
... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.
Point of view
"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.
(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.
We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"
President
Russia
... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."
In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.
DIPLOMACY
Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia
President
Ukraine
... announced in a televised statement.
Point of view
"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.
But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine
... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.
DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)
- "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
- Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
- Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
- No objection against joining European Union
- 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
- Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue
COMPROMISE
- Pledge not to join any military alliances
- Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
- Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
- Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons
Point of view
"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.
The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"
President
Ukraine
... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.
Point of view
"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."
NATO
... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.
Point of view
"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.
There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.
But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"
President
United States
... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.
Point of view
"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."
President
United States
... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.
Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.
STRATEGIC PICTURE
Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus
Belarus
... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.
Point of view
"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.
This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"
... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .
Point of view
"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.
This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.
We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."
President
European Comission
... at a press conference.
LATEST ON UKRAINE
Ukraine President Zelenskyy soften stance in interview with ABC
In an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.…
[ #Mykolaiv Front ] Russian Forward Operating Base revealed; Ukr not going on counter : blow bridge
Not much action on the Mykolaiv Front, but we have information of where the Russians’ “entrenched positions” are in Mykolaiv – giving us at least some clarity as to the situation on the ground in the Mykolaiv front. Ukrainian forces also blew up a bridge south of Mykolaiv to take out one of the southern…
[ Battle of Mariupol ] New Information on fighting locations; Sartana captured by DPR / Rus forces
We went from nearly no information on the battle at Mariupol to suddenly, quite a bit of information. In short: Sartana captured by Russians; Azov Battalion fired at Ukrainian Troops; Fighting at 5 different locations in the city; 150 civilians evacuated to Russian position in the east. Watch the youtube quick update for full details:
New Russian Narratives: 3 New Justifications For War – in the middle of the war
In the past 24 to perhaps 48 hours, 3 major accusations or narrative had been thrown up by the Russian side – all of them can be good enough to be justification of war on top of the official reasons Putin had spelt out. The 3 new narratives are: Ukraine President Zelenskyy alluded in his…
Evacuation of civilians from Mariupol failed again for a 2nd time – both sides blame each other
Convoy of buses left Zaporizhzhia and with the details of evacuation being announced by the Ukrainian side, this evacuation of Mariupol looks to be very promising. But somehow, this evacuation failed again. According to the Ukrainians: The Russians again disrupted the opening of the humanitarian corridor. The humanitarian convoy of 8 trucks, as well as…
[ Donbass Front ] Humanitarian Updates; Mariupol evacuation resumes on a reroute from Nikolske
After the Mariupol evacuation seemed to be dead on arrival after the Mariupol city council unilaterally postponed the evacuation – the Ukrainian govt announced that the humanitarian corridor is open again and evacuation will be carried out today, on mostly the same route, but with a reroute away from Nikolske (probably due to fighting).
[ Siege of #Mariupol ] #Russia Forces takes suburb of Staryi Krym
Briefing by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov as of 9.30 on March 6, 2022: Units of the People’s Militia of the Donetsk Republic are conducting successful offensive operations on the western and north-western outskirts of the city of Mariupol. The residential quarter of STARYI KRYM was…
[ Donbass Front ] Crimea forces punches into the rear of Ukraine’s East Army’s southern line
Remember I mentioned yesterday the Ukraine’s south-eastern line is on the verge of collapse? This is the latest situation on the ground. The Russian Crimea force continue punching through into the rear of the Ukrainian “East Army’s” southern defense line, while they were busy holding back the Donetsk Republic/Russian forces that were fighting northward, west…
[ Donbass Front ] Ukraine’s South-Eastern Line on the verge of collapse ; Russian pincer developing
Russian Forces from the Crimea Front is punching through large expanse of undefended territory into the rear of the Southern most part of the Ukraine’s Eastern Front/Line. With the Donetsk / Russian Forces which these Ukrainians forces are fighting against advanced quickly (7km deep) – the entire Southeastern defense line of the Ukraine’s “east army”…
Ukraine bombed train bridges at border with Moldova / Transnistria
Unrelated to any of the Russian offenses or critical defense position of the Ukrainian side – Ukraine decided to bomb the bridges at the border between Ukraine and Moldova / Transniatria. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine blew up two railway bridges on the border of Odessa and Transnistria The first explosion occurred between the Transnistrian…
[ Donbass Front ] Encirclement of Mariupol complete; Russian forces punches out of Luhansk!
“Briefing by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov as of 17.30 on March 4, 2022 on the progress of the special operation in Ukraine: The grouping of troops of the Lugansk People’s Republic captured the settlements of SHANDRIGOLOVO, ALEKSANDROVKA, DERILOVO, SREDNE and LOZOVOE. The armed forces of…
[ Crimea Front ] Major Russian advance across a wide front south of Zaporizhzhia
“Briefing by the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov as of 17.30 on March 4, 2022 on the progress of the special operation in Ukraine: Units of the Russian Armed Forces continue the offensive on a wide front have established control over the settlements of PYATIHATKI, SHEVCHENKOVO, POLOGI,…
We told you so: NATO rules out policing no-fly zone over war-hit Ukraine
“What is taking place now in Ukraine is horrific. It’s painful and we see human suffering, we see destruction at a scale we haven’t seen in Europe since the Second World War,” he said. But, he added: “We are not going to move into Ukraine, neither on the ground, nor in the Ukrainian airspace.” Under…
Summary of Russian’s perspective of the “Special Operation” in Ukraine so far
[ the article is MS Edge translated and is copied as-is in full from the original article’s translation ] Steps of victory: a summary of the special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the demilitarization of Ukraine Published: 03 march 2022 20:58By Vasily VasikovRiafan.ru Exactly a week ago, on February 24,…
[ Crimea Front ] Russian forces as taken undefended Enerhodar
Russian forces had entered Enerhodar without any fighting as the only deterrence were the civilians trying to stop the operation by blocking the road. They were dispersed by the warning shots and the mayor of the city urged everyone to stay at home. So much talk about how brave and courageous the Ukrainian civilians are…
Georgia officially applies for EU membership
Upon seeing wartime Ukraine taking the advantage of hyper attention and “concern” for Ukraine by sending an application to join the European Union (EU), Georgia immediately hopped onto the bandwagon to follow suit. According to a tweet by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, they wrote that their Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili had signed…
[ Donbass Front ] Entire Ukraine’s line north of Severodonetsk in Luhansk is broken
Large portion of territory north of Severodonetsk has fallen to the Luhansk People’s Republic – Russian forces. If all the other unmarked territory is under Russian control – Luhansk is effectively 90% “liberated”. — edit — My theory that 90% of Luhansk is liberated had just got corroborated by a Russian article: Liberation of the…
[ Crimea Front ] Heli insertion north of Mykolaiv – Battle for Mykolaiv International Airport
4 Helicopters were reportedly inserting Russian troops into the town of Balovne, north of Mykolaiv and the forces immediately proceed to try to capture Mykolaiv International Airport which were met by Ukrainian defenders. To the north-east of Mykolaiv, a major convoy of up to 800 vehicles were allegedly destroyed by the Ukrainian forces and air…
[ Crimea Front ] Battle for Vozesens’k by Russian airborne troop
Russian forces has been confirmed to be attacking Voznesensk, which is the location with a nuclear power plant to it’s north. As there are no indication of a “land route” towards this city, we assessed that this could be airborne operation insertion via helicopters.
[ Donbass Front ] Major advances reported in North-eastern Ukraine, with Russian forces present in Balakliya, Svatove, Chuhuiv and Bohodukhiv….
Major advances reported in North-eastern #Ukraine, with Russian forces present in Balakliya, Svatove, Chuhuiv and Bohodukhiv…. Its wasnt clear the Svatove forces was from Kupyansk or Starobilsk until I saw this in one of the telegram channels This is the latest order of battle being shared from the #Russia-centric telegram #Ukraine is still holding most…
Fighter jets donation deal off! Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia rejected request to give Ukraine their Russian-made planes
In a stunning reversal of what would be the most dramatic military aid to Ukraine from European Union, Ukrainian pilots that had arrived in Poland to take control of the donated fighter planes will leave empty handed as the 3 European countries that still fly Russian made planes similar to Ukraine had all rejected to…
[ Donbass Front ] Russian forces captures Starobils’k
Photo, video as well as Russian sources confirms that the Russian forces have taken the city of Starobils’k in the Luhansk region.
[ Kyiv Front ] Belarussian column spotted in Chernihiv – Ukraine Northern Territorial Army
According to official Ukrainian government sources, Belarus has reportedly entered the war. The Belarussian column was spotted in Mykhailo-Kotyubyns’ke – travelling towards Slabyn or Pakul The column is reportedly 33 vehicles long, of which 11 of them are “Grad” MLRS vehicles. https://www.unian.ua/war/biloruski-viyska-zayshli-na-chernigivshchinu-novini-donbasu-11723482.html
[ Crimea / Donbass Front ] The Battle of Mariupol’ has begun
There are video evidence + geolocation by OSINT that the Battle of #Mariupol has officially begun.
[ Crimea Front ] Russians forces has captured Berdyans’k
According to the latest information circulating around, the Russian forces had captured Berdyansk with the Mayor of the city reportedly announcing that all official buildings in the city is now in Russian control.
Summary of Military Aid to Ukraine in Feb 2022 as of 27 Feb
Germany1000 anti-tank weapon500 Stinger missiles Netherland400 rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers200 Stinger missiles100 sniper rifles30000 rounds of ammunition? x radar devices? x landmine detectors Poland ? x ammunition Estonia? x 122mm howitzers? x Javelin anti-tank missiles Latvia ? x Javelin anti-tank missiles Lithuania? x Stinger missiles? x ammunition Bulgariaannounced but unknown Belgium2000 machine guns3800 tonnes fuel…
[ Luhansk / Donbass Front ] Major advanced by Russian forces in Luhansk: Schastia, Muratove, Smolianynove, Novookhtyrka taken
In a stunning advance, Russian forces break through the Schastia defenses as well as the line north of the city and made a 40-50km push to the outskirt of twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychans’k, as the Ukrainian forces in the region fall back into the 2 cities. Ukrainian forces are now bracing for an…
[ Kharkiv Front ] Undefended Kupyansk’s Mayor negotiated free passage for Russian troops; escorted by police
Kup’yans’k mayor, negotiated with Russian forces that had arrived at his city to allow them free passage and had informed them that there are no Ukrainian military in the city. Russian forces had passed through the city with police escort. Direction on where the Russian forces went after is currently unclear. But an educated guess…
[ Crimea Front ] Mykolaiv repelled Russian night attack
Mykolaiv reported heavy fighting in the night. However, it appears that Ukraine continues to hold full control over the city. Mykolaiv is an important hub that is the gateway to the South-west region of Ukraine. If the city falls to the Russians, the port city of Odessa will be threatened.
Belarus to vote on constitutional changes to host nuclear weapons and effectively make Lukashenka a dictator – Russia pushed to the brink
Lukashenka, 67, has proposed amending the constitution, the third time he has done so since coming to power in 1994, that would allow him to rule to 2035, offer him a new lever of power, and abolish a section of the document defining Belarus as a “nuclear free zone,” possibly paving the way for the…
[ Donbass Front ] Russia cuts communications between Volnovakha and Mariupol after taking Donskoye; capture Markivka and Kryz’ke in Luhansk
Russian forces made some progress north of Bilovods’k in Luhansk, as well as just south of Volnovakha. The capturing of Donskoye and Novomykolaivka means that the road between Volnovakha and Mariupol is now closed to the Ukrainians. This adds further concerns to the closing of the encircling of Mariupol from both sides. The only “escape…
[ Kyiv / Sumy Front ] Stalemate as Russian unable to make progress
After trying to find out what is the situation in the various cities that are under siege, we could not find significant information of any progress by the Russians on the ground. The only change from yesterday, is that the Russian are trying to reinforce the east flank of Kyiv through the Kruty-Nizhyn line (the…
Ukraine Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov call for citizens to lookout for spies and attack supply convoys
Dear Ukrainians! Over 55 hours of resistance. Our defenders have destroyed the enemy’s plans. As of this morning, the number of Russian occupiers killed has exceeded 3,000. More than 200 interventionists are captured. The number of captives is increasing. They did not expect such a response and themselves. Hundreds of armoured vehicles have been destroyed,…
[ Crimea Front ] Russian Blitz from Melitopol: Enerhodar, Vasylivka braces for battle, Berdans’k encircled, 2 separate forces heading towards Mariupol from the west & north-west
Russian forces from the Crimea front had split into 4 different forces from their newly captured city of Melitopol. Intel shows that Dnieper river cities of Enerhodar and Vasylivka are bracing for attacks by huge columns of Russian forces. The Russian detachment that went towards Tokmak, had paste Chernihivka, and continued eastward. The southern most…
Mykolaiv still fully under Ukrainian control; braces possible attack
Due to the lack of “actions” and information by the Russians in Mykolaiv and beyond; and additional information that had came up within Mykolaiv on the capture of Russian saboteurs/soldiers and information of the preparation against a possible attack by Russian tanks confirm that Ukraine forces still have full control over the city.
Ukraine forces breakthrough Russian lines and takes Bilovods’k in Lugansk
Ukraine Defense Ministry announced their forces attacked Russian forces at noon in the Bilovods’k region, broke through Russian positions and consolidated the success. Russian units are allegedly routed towards the Russian border after heavy losses.
Russia recaptured Antonov Airport (Gostomel) and condor off the west side of Kyiv
Reports of Russian Defense Ministry announcing the capture of Antonov Airport and claimed that they had blocked Kyiv from the west. 200 Ukrainian special forces troops are claimed to be killed in operation.
[ Kyiv Front ] Chernihiv remains in Ukraine control
We have seen enough postings to confirm that Chernihiv did not fall to the Russia forces as we had believed yesterday. The map is now updated to show the defense of Chernihiv. Social media postings reported that the Russian forces are engaging the defenses of Chernihiv, while large number of the Russian forces bypassed Chernihiv…
[ Civil.ge ] Georgia Won’t Join Russia Sanctions, PM Says
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced today Tbilisi will not join international sanctions on Russia over its full-scale attack on Ukraine. “I want to state clearly and unambiguously, considering our national interests and interests of the people, Georgia does not plan to participate in the financial and economic sanctions, as this would only damage our…
Russian forces are sighted in Melitopol
We can safely assume that Melitopol had fallen to #Russia. This development may mean that Russia might be considering cutting supply lines to the #Ukraine frontline units that are holding out very well on the Donbass front, OR… attempting to go east and encircle the forces in Mauripol – it’s still not clear yet, as…
[ National Post ] Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing Black Sea, says foreign minister
Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday. Ukraine has appealed to Turkey to block Russian warships from passing through the Dardanelles and…
[ Kyiv Front ] Ukraine retakes Antonov Airport, Russia takes Vorzel
Antonov Airport is reportedly recaptured by the Ukrainian forces. However, the Russian had taken Vorzel, south of the airport, in a possible encirclement of the airport.
Ukrainian president announces general mobilization of all conscripts and reservists within 90 days
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered a general military mobilization through out Ukraine. The mobilization will be carried out within 90 days, and expect to provide the government with personnel, vehicles, infrastructure and land use for the defense operations. All male citizens between 18-60 will be banned from leaving the country. Local government officials would…
Ukraine-Russia War Day 1 SITREP – Russia attacking on 5 fronts
If you missed the “actions” from Day 1 of the #Ukraine-#Russia war; or you are confused what actually happened and what is the situation on the ground now… Watch this quick SITREP that sums up the situation on the ground in Ukraine: (pls subscribe!)
[ Crimea Front ] Mykolaiv is likely to have fallen to the Russian
We have good reasons to believe that Mykolaiv had fallen to the Russia in the past few hours as there are social media footage that show Russian forces inside of Mykolaiv. All LIVE camera feed of Mykolaiv had also went down. We can safely assume that Russian had taken Mykolaiv as a result.
[ Suny Front ] Konotop encircled; Okhtyrka repelled Russian offensive twice
Based on the update by Suny Regional State Admin Chairman, Russia had encircled Konotop and Okhtyrka repelled Russian offensive twice. He also reported Russian forces are from this front is heading towards Kiev. OSINT UKRAINE@OSINT_Ukraine????⚡️Chairman of the Regional State Administration of Sumy Dmitry Zhivitsky has released a video stating that Russia has encircled Konotop (see…
Belarus denied claims that Belarus took part in the attack on Ukraine
President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus has denied claims that his nation is taking part in a Russian attack on Ukraine, Belarusian state media reported on Thursday. Ukrainian border guards had made the accusation against Minsk earlier in the day. The Ukrainian statement asserted that some of the Russian troops entering Ukraine came from the territory of neighboring Belarus,…
Zelenskyy calls on all citizens with military experience to “join the defence of Ukraine”
Sky News@SkyNews·15m Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on all citizens with military experience to “join the defence of Ukraine”, and asks for people to donate blood as there are “wounded soldiers in hospitals”. I thought he said his military was stronger than it was 8 years ago? Now he is asking civilians to suicide. And…
[ Aerotime ] Ukrainian Su-27 fighter intercepted in Romania
Two F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters of the Romanian Air Force were scrambled to intercept an unauthorized flight approaching the national airspace on February 24, 2022. The jets carried out a visual identification of the aircraft, which appeared to be a Sukhoi 27 belonging to the Ukrainian Air Force. The fighter was escorted to the RoAF…
General Staff of Ukraine Armed Forces: Russia did not land in Odessa
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that the information about the landing of the Russian troops in Odessa is false. The information is part of the press statement on UNIAN as they report on the Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “Today, February 24, at 5:00, the armed forces of the Russian Federation began intensive…