DPA Projection
China Invasion of Taiwan
PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025)
- In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.
- China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days - effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.
- The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony - thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.
- DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% - given the trade war respite is only for 90 days - and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.
PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025)
- Trump administration's "New World Order" via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies.
- China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems.
- China's economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation - any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries.
- The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump's election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US's war time production.
- China's military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now.
- If China's economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) - China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with - which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues.
- Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur.
- China could also use "a war" in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump's trade/economic offensive; similar to China's deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot.
- An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position - a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump's ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA.
- An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan - on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict.
- Failure of the allies and partners to answer US' call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good.
KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025)
- USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries
- Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA
- All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump.
- China had retaliated against the US "Liberation Day" tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc... to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day).
DEVELOPMENT (March 2025)
- A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is "no longer primarily focused" on Europe's security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China's growing influence.
- Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting that the U.S. must prioritize East Asia and that European countries should increase their defense spending to ensure their own security.
- Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering adjusting the role of its forces stationed in South Korea, shifting focus from deterring North Korea to addressing broader regional challenges, particularly concerning China.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA assess that we will soon be seeing increased military deployments to US bases in the Asia Pacific in the near future.
However, this will likely only happen after USA resolves the immediate problems with Iran as well as with the Houthis in Yemen.
Projection Archives
PRIGOZHIN: MUD NOT DRY YET – Ukraine land South of Kherson; Heavy probing in Kupyansk-Svatove Front
Update on Ukrainian Counter Offensive: Wagner PMC’s boss, Prigozhin gave insight on the environmental situation that the ground currently is still very muddy, and it would be another 10 days (from 22 April) before the ground would be dry. The reason why the Ukrainians have yet to launch their offensive. Ukrainian forces however are not…
[ BAKHMUT ] WW1-STYLE FIGHTING ON KHROMOVE ROAD – Russians capture high-rises West of train station
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces captured high rise buildings that previous formed a formidable defense lines west of the Bakhmut Railway Station no.2. This complicates the defensive posture of the Ukrainian forces within Bakhmut. From the north, Russian forces begun their attack into the garage region; while still trying to move towards the…
[ BAKHMUT ] WAGNER CAPTURE EVERYTHING EAST OF RAILWAY – Khromove road cut; Ukr counter SW of Bakhmut
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Latest geolocation from Bakhmut City suggest that the Ukrainian forces had entirely withdrawn from the eastern side of the railway line that goes through the center of Bakhmut City. Russian forces continue to make incremental progress in the northern frontlines as the Ukrainian forces are making a stand in the…
Ukrainian Misinformation Telegram Network discovered by Russian hackers
This is the link to the report by the 3 Russian hacker group (Joker DPR, Beregini, NemeZida) that discovered the entire Ukrainian network of “Russian” telegram channels that the Ukrainians used to publish misinformation as well as solicit money “for the Russian troops”. https://nemez1da.ru/rassledovaniya/strong-em-u-volk-v-ovechej-shkure-u-em-strong/ Unfortunately, I am unable to open the website. I bet many…
[ BAKHMUT ] NORTHERN FRONTLINE COLLAPSED – Railway Station confirmed captured by Russian forces
Update from the Bakhmut Front: The NW, NNW Bakhmut frontline suffered a catastrophic collapse as Russian forces broke through and captured most of the NW districts. The industrial area were the grain elevator is, as well as the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is confirmed to be captured by Russian forces. The Ukrainian forces is holding…
REINFORCEMENT TO BAKHMUT DENIED – Wagner & VDV forces enters Bohdanivka; Railway station disputes
Update from the Bakhmut Front: The information of capture of the Bakhmut Railway Station No.2 is rolled back by DeepStateUA, as the station remains under the gray zone, with fighting still ongoing in the area. With the waning Ukrainian artillery support, Russian forces pressed their advantage on Khromove and Ivanivske. First reports of Russian forces…
[ Zaporizhzhia ] RUSSIA TOOK OUT 2 HIMARS AT ORIKHIV – Heavy bombardment all around Orikhiv region
Update from the Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian forces reportedly bombarded a warehouse next to the train station at Orikhiv with Smerch MLRS and Hyacinth artillery. 2 x HIMARS launchers, 1 x M777 artillery as well as other equipments + ammunition had been destroyed. Heavy shelling is also reported all around the Orikhiv region, suggesting major build…
[ BAKHMUT ] HEAVY FIGHTING AT CENTRAL TRAIN STATION – VDV forces reportedly now fighting in Bakhmut
Update from the Bakhmut Front: Heavy fighting for the Bakhmut central train station (No.2) was raging for the past 3 days; latest unconfirmed information suggests that the Ukrainian forces had been pushed out from the station in the evening of 10th April 2023. Ukrainian salient south and southeast of Avangard stadium had shrinked further, albeit…
UKRAINE MINING OSKIL RIVER BANKS – counter at Vodyane | Ukraine “Spring Offensive” Tracking: 8-10/4
Ukraine Spring Offensive Update: Ukrainian forces restarted probing Russian lines after 3 day pause that coincided with the news of NATO-US-Ukraine military document leak. Probing actions were reported at Synkivka and Novoselivske in the Kupyansk-Svatove Front, Volodymyrivka and Novosilka at the Donetsk Front. Counter offensive operations were reported NE of Vodyane at the Avdiivka front.…
Analysis/Dissection of Leaked US-NATO-Ukraine Military Documents by former professional soldiers
An unusual situation happened in the Ukraine-War-Infosphere, where a set of US-NATO-Ukraine military document had appeared online, in an apparently leak. People have mixed opinions about it, some think its legit, others believe its fake or misinformation. To “clear the air”, Wyatt of Defense Politics Asia, a former intel specialist from the Singapore Armed Forces,…