DPA Projection
China Invasion of Taiwan
PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025)
- In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.
- China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days - effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.
- The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony - thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.
- DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% - given the trade war respite is only for 90 days - and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.
PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025)
- Trump administration's "New World Order" via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies.
- China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems.
- China's economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation - any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries.
- The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump's election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US's war time production.
- China's military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now.
- If China's economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) - China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with - which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues.
- Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur.
- China could also use "a war" in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump's trade/economic offensive; similar to China's deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot.
- An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position - a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump's ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA.
- An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan - on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict.
- Failure of the allies and partners to answer US' call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good.
KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025)
- USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries
- Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA
- All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump.
- China had retaliated against the US "Liberation Day" tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc... to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day).
DEVELOPMENT (March 2025)
- A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is "no longer primarily focused" on Europe's security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China's growing influence.
- Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting that the U.S. must prioritize East Asia and that European countries should increase their defense spending to ensure their own security.
- Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering adjusting the role of its forces stationed in South Korea, shifting focus from deterring North Korea to addressing broader regional challenges, particularly concerning China.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA assess that we will soon be seeing increased military deployments to US bases in the Asia Pacific in the near future.
However, this will likely only happen after USA resolves the immediate problems with Iran as well as with the Houthis in Yemen.
Projection Archives
Summary of Military Aid to Ukraine in Feb 2022 as of 27 Feb
Germany1000 anti-tank weapon500 Stinger missiles Netherland400 rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers200 Stinger missiles100 sniper rifles30000 rounds of ammunition? x radar devices? x landmine detectors Poland ? x ammunition Estonia? x 122mm howitzers? x Javelin anti-tank missiles Latvia ? x Javelin anti-tank missiles Lithuania? x Stinger missiles? x ammunition Bulgariaannounced but unknown Belgium2000 machine guns3800 tonnes fuel…
Germany finally stop their military rot: promising to keep defense spending above NATO’s 2% GDP requirement
Germany, one of the country specifically called out by former US President Donald Trump, for failing to meet NATO requirement of annual defense spending of at least 2% of the GDP, has finally committed officially to keep it’s defense spending over 2% of GDP immediately. This is the most significant shift in Germany’s policy when…
[ Luhansk / Donbass Front ] Major advanced by Russian forces in Luhansk: Schastia, Muratove, Smolianynove, Novookhtyrka taken
In a stunning advance, Russian forces break through the Schastia defenses as well as the line north of the city and made a 40-50km push to the outskirt of twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychans’k, as the Ukrainian forces in the region fall back into the 2 cities. Ukrainian forces are now bracing for an…
[ Kharkiv Front ] Undefended Kupyansk’s Mayor negotiated free passage for Russian troops; escorted by police
Kup’yans’k mayor, negotiated with Russian forces that had arrived at his city to allow them free passage and had informed them that there are no Ukrainian military in the city. Russian forces had passed through the city with police escort. Direction on where the Russian forces went after is currently unclear. But an educated guess…
[ Crimea Front ] Mykolaiv repelled Russian night attack
Mykolaiv reported heavy fighting in the night. However, it appears that Ukraine continues to hold full control over the city. Mykolaiv is an important hub that is the gateway to the South-west region of Ukraine. If the city falls to the Russians, the port city of Odessa will be threatened.
Belarus to vote on constitutional changes to host nuclear weapons and effectively make Lukashenka a dictator – Russia pushed to the brink
Lukashenka, 67, has proposed amending the constitution, the third time he has done so since coming to power in 1994, that would allow him to rule to 2035, offer him a new lever of power, and abolish a section of the document defining Belarus as a “nuclear free zone,” possibly paving the way for the…
[ Donbass Front ] Russia cuts communications between Volnovakha and Mariupol after taking Donskoye; capture Markivka and Kryz’ke in Luhansk
Russian forces made some progress north of Bilovods’k in Luhansk, as well as just south of Volnovakha. The capturing of Donskoye and Novomykolaivka means that the road between Volnovakha and Mariupol is now closed to the Ukrainians. This adds further concerns to the closing of the encircling of Mariupol from both sides. The only “escape…
[ Kyiv / Sumy Front ] Stalemate as Russian unable to make progress
After trying to find out what is the situation in the various cities that are under siege, we could not find significant information of any progress by the Russians on the ground. The only change from yesterday, is that the Russian are trying to reinforce the east flank of Kyiv through the Kruty-Nizhyn line (the…
Ukraine Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov call for citizens to lookout for spies and attack supply convoys
Dear Ukrainians! Over 55 hours of resistance. Our defenders have destroyed the enemy’s plans. As of this morning, the number of Russian occupiers killed has exceeded 3,000. More than 200 interventionists are captured. The number of captives is increasing. They did not expect such a response and themselves. Hundreds of armoured vehicles have been destroyed,…
[ Crimea Front ] Russian Blitz from Melitopol: Enerhodar, Vasylivka braces for battle, Berdans’k encircled, 2 separate forces heading towards Mariupol from the west & north-west
Russian forces from the Crimea front had split into 4 different forces from their newly captured city of Melitopol. Intel shows that Dnieper river cities of Enerhodar and Vasylivka are bracing for attacks by huge columns of Russian forces. The Russian detachment that went towards Tokmak, had paste Chernihivka, and continued eastward. The southern most…