DPA Projection
China Invasion of Taiwan
PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025)
- In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.
- China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days - effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.
- The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony - thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.
- DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% - given the trade war respite is only for 90 days - and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.
PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025)
- Trump administration's "New World Order" via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies.
- China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems.
- China's economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation - any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries.
- The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump's election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US's war time production.
- China's military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now.
- If China's economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) - China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with - which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues.
- Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur.
- China could also use "a war" in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump's trade/economic offensive; similar to China's deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot.
- An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position - a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump's ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA.
- An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan - on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict.
- Failure of the allies and partners to answer US' call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good.
KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025)
- USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries
- Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA
- All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump.
- China had retaliated against the US "Liberation Day" tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc... to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day).
DEVELOPMENT (March 2025)
- A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is "no longer primarily focused" on Europe's security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China's growing influence.
- Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting that the U.S. must prioritize East Asia and that European countries should increase their defense spending to ensure their own security.
- Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering adjusting the role of its forces stationed in South Korea, shifting focus from deterring North Korea to addressing broader regional challenges, particularly concerning China.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA assess that we will soon be seeing increased military deployments to US bases in the Asia Pacific in the near future.
However, this will likely only happen after USA resolves the immediate problems with Iran as well as with the Houthis in Yemen.
Projection Archives
[ NPR ] China is removing domes from mosques as part of a push to make them more ‘Chinese’
China is removing the domes and minarets from thousands of mosques across the country. Authorities say the domes are evidence of foreign religious influence and are taking down overtly Islamic architecture as part of a push to sinicize historically Muslim ethnic groups — to make them more traditionally Chinese.The campaign comes amid rising Islamophobia in…
[ The Korea Times ] Hyundai, Daewoo in race to win Korea’s 1st aircraft carrier order
Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) are in a heated race to win a 2 trillion won ($1.7 billion) order to build Korea’s first aircraft carrier, known as the CVX. The sheer size of the first aircraft carrier project for the two shipbuilders could lead to additional deals for such…
[ Myanmar Now ] Junta turns to retired soldiers amid heavy losses and a slide in recruitment
Myanmar’s military is increasingly relying on retired soldiers to replenish its ranks, as months of conflict take a heavy toll on troops and recruitment efforts, according to military sources. In an effort to bolster its strength in restive regions, the regime has started offering incentives to former military personnel to return to uniform, one ex-soldier…
[ Yahoo! ] Sinovac to be included in Singapore’s national vaccination programme
Eight months after Singapore received its first doses of the Sinovac-CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine, it will now be included in the National Vaccination Programme (NVP) as an alternative for those who are unable or unwilling to take mRNA vaccines. Noting that some continue to choose not to take up mRNA vaccinations due to “strong personal preferences”,…
[ Reuters ] Turkey to expel U.S. envoy and nine others, Erdogan says
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he had told his foreign ministry to expel the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala. Seven of the ambassadors represent Turkey’s NATO allies and the expulsions, if carried out, would open the deepest rift with…
[ The Independent ] Singapore recovery stalled by 100k seniors who won’t get jabs
Chris Barnett, the South-east Asia correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, said this when he reported the extension of strict social curbs here until next month which was announced by Singapore’s Multi-Ministry Task Force (MTF) on Wednesday. “Now, though, after setting the standard in the region with its COVID-19 immunisation drive, vaccine…
Former US President Trump launching new Social Media Network: TRUTH Social
Former US President, Donald J Trump finally made good on his promise to launch his own social media platform to compete against the Big Tech companies that had collectively censored and kick him off their respective platforms. Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) merged with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: DWAC), to immediately fast track…
Pakistani Taliban a Cause of Concern For Islamabad
Reversal of Fortunes The attacks carried out by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) aka Pakistan Taliban have increased to the highest level in over four years as the US left Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban took power. TTP has been emboldened by the developments in next-door Afghanistan. This has complicated the internal security scenario for Pakistan as…
[ The Jakarta Post ] Myanmar junta blames ‘foreign intervention’ for ASEAN summit exclusion
Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2021/10/17/myanmar-junta-blames-foreign-intervention-for-asean-summit-exclusion.html A spokesman for Myanmar’s military government blamed “foreign intervention” for the rare exclusion of its junta leader from a regional leaders’ summit later this month. Junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun told the BBC Burmese news service that the United States and representatives of the European Union had pressured other leaders of the 10-member…
[ Washington Post ] Navy nuclear engineer and his wife charged with trying to share submarine secrets with a foreign country
A Navy nuclear engineer and his wife have been charged with repeatedly trying to pass secrets about U.S. nuclear submarines to a foreign country, in an alleged espionage plot discovered by the FBI, according to court document The court papers say that in December 2020, an FBI official received a package that had been sent…