DPA Projection
China Invasion of Taiwan
PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025)
- In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.
- China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days - effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.
- The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony - thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.
- DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% - given the trade war respite is only for 90 days - and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.
PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025)
- Trump administration's "New World Order" via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies.
- China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems.
- China's economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation - any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries.
- The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump's election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US's war time production.
- China's military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now.
- If China's economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) - China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with - which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues.
- Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur.
- China could also use "a war" in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump's trade/economic offensive; similar to China's deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot.
- An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position - a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump's ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA.
- An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan - on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict.
- Failure of the allies and partners to answer US' call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good.
KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025)
- USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries
- Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA
- All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump.
- China had retaliated against the US "Liberation Day" tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc... to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day).
DEVELOPMENT (March 2025)
- A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is "no longer primarily focused" on Europe's security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China's growing influence.
- Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting that the U.S. must prioritize East Asia and that European countries should increase their defense spending to ensure their own security.
- Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering adjusting the role of its forces stationed in South Korea, shifting focus from deterring North Korea to addressing broader regional challenges, particularly concerning China.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA assess that we will soon be seeing increased military deployments to US bases in the Asia Pacific in the near future.
However, this will likely only happen after USA resolves the immediate problems with Iran as well as with the Houthis in Yemen.
Projection Archives
[ Insider Asia ] North Korea rejects almost 3 million doses of Sinovac vaccine, saying it should be given to countries that need it more
North Korea has rejected about 3 million doses of China’s Sinovac Biotech vaccine, asking for them to be sent to countries that need them more.The isolated kingdom had also previously rejected almost 2 million AstraZeneca vaccines due to the potential of rare but severe blood clots.The country has so far reported zero cases of COVID-19…
[ Daily Mail ] Pentagon orders ALL active military to get the vaccine as soon as possible: 800,000 service members still haven’t gotten a shot and could face court martial if they don’t
More than 800,000 service members out of around 1.4 million still need to get their shots, according to Pentagon data Of active duty forces, 68 percent are fully vaccinated and 76 percent have at least one dose The Army has the lowest vaccination rate, where 40% are fully vaccinated and 57% have one dose Kirby…
[ Reuters ] Before Afghan collapse, Biden pressed Ghani to ‘change perception’
In the last call between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Afghanistan counterpart before the Taliban seized control of the country, the leaders discussed military aid, political strategy and messaging tactics, but neither Biden nor Ashraf Ghani appeared aware of or prepared for the immediate danger of the entire country falling to insurgents, a transcript reviewed by…
[ The Independent ] New Covid-19 variant with multiple mutations sparking concerns
South African scientists have identified a new coronavirus variant – its number of mutations sparking concerns. First identified in the South African provinces of Mpumalanga and Gauteng, the variant, called C.1.2, is more highly mutated than others flagged by the World Health Organization (WHO). Since being identified, the variant has spread to most South African provinces and…
[ Business Insider ] The UK is considering incorporating Afghan special forces evacuated from Kabul into the British army
Afghan special forces could join the British Army as part of a new regiment being considered by UK MPs, according to the Telegraph. Hundreds of the Afghan commandos who’ve arrived in the UK over the past few weeks have been trained by UK troops in Afghanistan. Ministers are currently considering the proposal to employ the soldiers.…
[ ABC ] North Korea appears to have reactivated Yongbyon nuclear plant, atomic watchdog IAEA says
North Korea appears to have restarted a nuclear reactor that is widely believed to have produced plutonium for nuclear weapons, the UN atomic watchdog has said in an annual report. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has had no access to North Korea since Pyongyang expelled its inspectors in 2009. The country then pressed ahead…
Taliban captured 85 billion dollars of military hardware – now is as strong as Tajikistan’s military… maybe
A lot had been made and reported about the multi-billion dollars “acquisition” of the US military hardware that were left behind by the US forces and the Afghan National Army. A whopping 85 billion dollars worth of it. In a tweet by disclose.tv reveal the below numbers: The numbers look very impressive, until you start…
[ United With Israel ] Biden ‘Not Optimistic’ About Return to Iran Nuclear Deal
President Joe Biden’s mood on a U.S. return to the Iranian nuclear deal is “not optimistic,” according to an Israeli source quoted by Times of Israel. The report followed up on the president’s Friday meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in the Oval Office. The controversial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) promised Iran economic…
[ Newlines Mag ] The Taliban’s Struggle to Control Kabul
Before formally entering Kabul, the Taliban had already secreted men into the city, where they were biding their time, ready to take over the capital. But the quick collapse of the capital caught even them unprepared. The units assigned to secure the city were still busy clearing the outskirts of the capital and neighboring provinces…
[ WSJ ] China Plans to Ban U.S. IPOs for Data-Heavy Tech Firms
China plans to propose new rules that would ban companies with large amounts of sensitive consumer data from going public in the U.S., people familiar with the matter said, a move that is likely to thwart the ambitions of the country’s tech firms to list abroad. In recent weeks, officials from China’s stock regulator have told…