DPA Projection
China Invasion of Taiwan
PROJECTION UPDATE (13 May 2025)
- In a surprise U-turn by China, after strong words of not talking to USA or negotiating with USA without USA first eliminating their tariffs on China, China delegation met with USA delegation at Geneva, Switzerland between 10-12 May 2025.
- China and USA both agree to drop reciprocal-retaliation tariffs to 10% for 90 days - effectively setting the minimum tariff on each sides to 10% vs 30%. Read more about the deal here.
- The softening stance by China may be a signal of prioritization over stabilizing internal economic problems over challenging US hegemony - thus reducing the threat of using war on Taiwan to militarily-strategically defeat US influence/presence in the region.
- DPA assess the risk to drop from 50% to 40% - given the trade war respite is only for 90 days - and with the nearly insurmountable economic challenge facing China internally, China may not necessarily be able to offer a deal that USA want, and the high tariffs may return after the end of the 90 days.
PROJECTION UPDATE (7 April 2025)
- Trump administration's "New World Order" via international trade and economic reforms have a strong leaning towards isolating China or to force China to reform its economic policies.
- China is unlikely and possibly, literally unable to accede to any of the demands of Trump due to internal economic turmoil/problems.
- China's economic stability/growth is entirely underpinned by the enormous export numbers, and the export have to continue to grow in order to keep up with management of the enormous debt and poor internal economic situation - any reduction to export would hit twice as hard on China than usual for any other countries.
- The most opportune time frame / window to invade Taiwan has closed tremendously due to Trump's election:Trump has revigorated the US military recruitment & focus, massive investment into US military as well as remedying US military weakness, including investment into 6th Gen fighters, reinvestment in ship building as well as bringing back manufacturing that could improve US's war time production.
- China's military advantage on the Taiwan straits will be reduced with every passing month, as USA will complete its full redeployment/focus of its military from Europe to Asia, as well as introduction of new weaponry that is being ordered into production right now.
- If China's economic situation gets heavily hit by Trump economic/trade war assaults (especially Trump successfully gets many countries to cut/reduce trade with China) - China economic turmoil may create a lot more internal political problems than the Communist Party could deal with - which makes an invasion of Taiwan very unpopular with the citizens, whose concerns may be more on economic issues.
- Which again means that the only time frame in which China could launch an invasion with popular support would be, BEFORE such economic problem occur.
- China could also use "a war" in Taiwan to create a massive disruption, in order to fight off Trump's trade/economic offensive; similar to China's deliberate attempt to allow Covid-19 to go global to starve off the 2020 trade war situation, which China was losing/on the back foot.
- An invasion of Taiwan would also put Trump in a bad spot, as Trump runs on a no-war position - a prolonged military campaign in Taiwan stretching to the mid-terms in the US, could also potentially cause the Republican Party to lose either the House or Senate, crippling Trump's ability to conduct further effective reforms/actions in the USA.
- An invasion of Taiwan, would also test the will of USA to defend Taiwan - on top of that, the will of Japan, South Korea and the rest of US-allies/partners to side of USA on the conflict.
- Failure of the allies and partners to answer US' call to action to help defend Taiwan would effectively destroy US prestige and global leadership for good.
KEYSTONE DEVELOPMENT (2 April 2025)
- USA slaps minimum 10% tariff on all countries
- Tariff on China imports is now at 54%, putting tremendous pressure on Chinese imports into USA
- All countries are likely to enter trade negotiations with Trump.
- China had retaliated against the US "Liberation Day" tariff by announcing 34% tariff on all US goods. Including 10%-15% duties on certain products, certain products may now have 49% tariff.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA believe that Trump administration, with the intention to prevent Chinese goods from avoiding the tariff via 3rd country, will force every country, particularly Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc... to either cut/reduce trade with China, or risk having the tariff stay at current high numbers (as per announced on 2nd April 2025 aka Liberation Day).
DEVELOPMENT (March 2025)
- A confidential Pentagon memo revealed that deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan has become a U.S. military priority. This aligns with proposals to reallocate defense resources, potentially increasing funding for commands focused on China.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States is "no longer primarily focused" on Europe's security and emphasized that European nations need to assume greater responsibility for their own defense. This shift allows the U.S. to reallocate military resources toward addressing challenges in Asia, particularly concerning China's growing influence.
- Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, asserting that the U.S. must prioritize East Asia and that European countries should increase their defense spending to ensure their own security.
- Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering adjusting the role of its forces stationed in South Korea, shifting focus from deterring North Korea to addressing broader regional challenges, particularly concerning China.
DPA Projection (7 April 2025):
DPA assess that we will soon be seeing increased military deployments to US bases in the Asia Pacific in the near future.
However, this will likely only happen after USA resolves the immediate problems with Iran as well as with the Houthis in Yemen.
Projection Archives
2 bombs exploded near Tamwe Market, Yangon
Thet Hnin@ThetHnin091#Tamwe Township,2 bombs exploded near Tamwe Market around 3:20 pm today and smoke billowed.There have been reports of casualties in the recent bombings, but has not been able to confirm this. (#Myanmar security forces) #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar#June18Coup
A Toyota Vitz taxi exploded on the 155th street in Tamwe Township, Yangon
Thet Hnin@ThetHnin091 Tw // Graphic #Yangon Division, #Tamwe Township ,A Toyota Vitz taxi bomb exploded at around 3:30 pm on June 18 at the top of 155th Street, killing at least one person.(#Myanmar security forces) #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Explosion near the “Welcome Bridge” in Hpapun Township, Kayin State
K Sharing From Myanmar@kk_20kms There was a huge bomb explosion blown up near the Welcome Bridge in Hpapun Tsp, Kayin State today. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar#June18Coup
Explosion near Mingalar Bridge beside Htin Shi Chang School in Eastern Mogok, Pyin Oo Lwin district, Mandalay
Mary.Aung@MaryMyanmar A bomb blast occurred near Mingalar Bridge beside Htin Shi Chan School in the eastern Mogok last night during the curfew time. #June18Coup#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
[ Myanmar Now ] Anti-regime group bombs condo project linked to junta cabinet member
A high-end condominium project owned by the family of a junta cabinet member was bombed on Thursday morning, in the latest of a series of attacks on pro-regime targets. The construction site of the 68 Residence luxury condominium project in Yangon’s Bahan Township was hit by an explosion at around 5am on Thursday, sources said.…
[ The Irrawaddy ] Myanmar Military Truck With Soldiers on Board Blown Up in Yangon
An army truck with regime soldiers on board was blown up in Yangon’s Tamwe Township on Friday afternoon in the most serious attack to date on a junta target in the city. Witnesses said they saw soldiers on board the truck, which was parked outside an office of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development…
[ The Irrawaddy ] Time Is Right for India to Step In and Help Solve Myanmar Crisis
The Myanmar junta chief’s candid admission that his regime is not in full control of the country ravaged by a civil war offers an opportunity for India to step in to mitigate the crisis. Last month, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing reportedly said in a television interview that he did not expect to see such an uprising…
Explosion reported at a bridge connecting Daw Se-Nang Hu and Daw Ko Lo Khu in Demoso township, Kayah State – 1 villager killed
Shwe Yee Phoo@ShweYee48072826 Tw // death These was a bomb blast at a crossroads bridge that connects Daw Se-Nang Hu and Daw Ka Lo Khu villages in Demoso twp on June 18 around 2pm, resulting a NangHu villager dead. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar#June18Coup11:05 PM · Jun 18, 2021·Tw
Military forces pillaged Kyun Gyi village near Monywa, Sagaing
We Support NUG@sjh_sone At around 5:45 am ,Junta terrorists anarchically ransacked homes in KYUNGYI Village near Monywa_Amyint road Monywa. In addition, civilians properties were also looted. #June18Coup#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Explosion reportedly occurred at Administration Office in South Dagon
Daniel@Daniel78037553Explosion occurred at Administration Office in South Dagon at around 8:55pm tonight. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar#June18Coup