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Russo-Ukrainian War over Donetsk & Lugansk

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REPORTS & ANALYSIS

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STRATEGIC MAP

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SITREP (VIDEO)

Articles (Geopolitics)

SITUATION OVERVIEW

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

RUSSIA
  • Recognise the independence of Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republics
  • Recognise Crimea as Russian territory
  • Demilitarize to only defensive weaponry and no offensive weaponry
  • Declare neutral status and not join any military alliances or blocs like NATO (constitutional change)

COMPROMISE

  • Allow Ukraine to join the European Union
  • De-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, particularly near Chernihiv and Kyiv.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian statehood. And if this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience."

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

6 March 2022

... in a veiled threat to annex or dissolve the state of Ukraine, as he continued to pin the blame the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and slammed their resistance to the invasion.

Point of view

RUSSIA

"(The operation’s ultimate goal is) to protect the people who have been subjected for eight years to genocide by the Kiev regime.

(Moscow would) embark on a demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and handing over to justice those who committed numerous atrocities against civilians.

We do not have plans to occupy Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force"

Vladimir Putin
President
Russia

23 February 2022

... after announcing that a special operation had been launched to defend the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics from "Ukrainian aggression."

In the televised address, Putin also accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.

DIPLOMACY

UKRAINE

Ukraine had cut diplomatic relations with Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

24 February 2022

... announced in a televised statement.

Point of view

UKRAINE

"No one rejects the option of negotiations, every war ends with negotiations, but it is your position at the negotiating table that matters. Today, negotiations with Russia are being conducted on the battlefield, and this is the only type of negotiations that it really understands.

But we are ready to sit down at the table when it comes to the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And we are articulating this very clearly to all partners; they have also not ruled out the possibility of negotiations"

Dmytro Kuleba
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

13 September 2022

... in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, stated that Ukraine does not reject negotiations with Russia, but is ready to agree to them only when it comes to the full restoration of territorial integrity.

DEMANDS (as of 29 march 2022)

UKRAINE
  • "NATO Article 5" type security guarantee - guarantors to include: Russia, United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel.
  • Guarantors will go to war to protect Ukraine if it is invaded (as per what the security guarantee expected)
  • Territory to be guaranteed do not apply to Crimea and Donbass, however it do include parts of Luhansk and Donetsk's oblast
  • No objection against joining European Union
  • 15 years moratorium on the status of Crimea to negotiate Crimea's future
  • Both sides to not use military force to resolve Crimea issue

COMPROMISE

  • Pledge not to join any military alliances
  • Pledge not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops
  • Military exercises will require approval from guarantors
  • Pledge not to seek/obtain weapon of mass destruction including nuclear weapons

Point of view

UKRAINE

"Regarding NATO, I have cool down regarding that question long time ago, after we understood that Russia is not good with it, NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.

The alliance is afraid of controversial things and confrontation with Russia. I never wanted to be a country that is begging something on it's knees. We are not going to be that country, and I don't want to be that president"

Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President
Ukraine

8 March 2022

... in an exclusive interview with David Muir of the ABC News, when he was asked if he would go with the 3 conditions set by Russia to end the war: change constitution to give up joining NATO, recognise Crimea as part of Russia and recognise the independence of 2 separatist region in the east.

Point of view

NATO

"We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine, because that would be even more devastating and more dangerous."

Jens Stoltenberg
Secretary General

NATO

4 March 2022

... speaking after chairing a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"You have two options. Start a Third World War, go to war with Russia physically. Or two, make sure that a country that acts so contrary to international law ends up paying a price for having done it.

There's no sanction that is immediate, it's not like you can sanction someone and say "you're no longer going to be able to be the president of Russia.

But I think, I know these sanctions are the broadest sanctions in history, and economic sanctions and political sanctions"

Joe Biden
President
United States

26 February 2022

... explained in an interview with progressive social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen.

Point of view

UNITED STATES

"President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable."

Joe Biden
President
United States

23 February 2022

... in a written statement condemning Russia for an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” on Ukraine.

Biden says he plans to speak to the American people Thursday after a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders. More sanctions against Russia are expected to be announced Thursday.

STRATEGIC PICTURE

BELARUS

Belarus has approved a new constitution via referendum that ditches the country's non-nuclear status. This new constitution could likely see Russia deploy nuclear weaponry within Belarus

agencies reports
Belarus

28 February 2022

... cited the Belarus central elections commission saying 65.2% of those who took part voted in favor.

Point of view

GEORGIA

"I would like to state clearly and unequivocally that Georgia is not going to join the financial and economic sanctions, taking into account our national interests and the interests of the population.

This will only harm our country and our population. I, as the one responsible for the people of our country and as the head of the government, who is responsible for both domestic and foreign policy, will be guided only by national interests"

Irakli Garibashvili
Prime Minister
Georgia

25 February 2022

... told journalists that this decision (to join the financial and economic sanctions imposed on Russia) will only harm the country and population .

Point of view

EUROPEAN UNION

"We will present a package of massive, targeted sanctions.... freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop access of Russian banks to our financial market.

This is designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance war.

We will not let President Putin tear down Europe's security architecture. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies."

Ursula von der Leyen
President
European Comission

24 February 2022

... at a press conference.

LATEST ON UKRAINE

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Update from the Bakhmut Front: Russian forces reportedly made huge advance towards Vasyukivka, a move that threatens to cut off the entire southern resupply route/road that feeds the entire of Siversk Front. If it cuts, the Ukrainian forces at Siversk Front can only depend on the roads in the north, via Zakitne and along the…

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By Wyatt Mingji Lim | January 3, 2023

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Update from the Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian Defense Ministry shockingly reported that fighting is now in the area of Ivanivske, a town South-West-West of Bakhmut City. Through Ivanivske lies the important highway to Konstyantynivka, a major forward deployment base. Losing control of the highway, would mean losing a major reinforcement and resupply route. And what’s more…

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By Wyatt Mingji Lim | November 20, 2022

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[ Bakhmut Front ] Russia’s Wagner PMC continue offensives at Bakhmut Front; Ukrainian counterattacks

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[ Donetsk Front ] Russia launched major assault on Vuhledar and Pavlivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 30, 2022

Update from the Vuhledar region in Donetsk: Russian forces launched an early morning attack on the 29th Oct 2022, against Vuhledar and Pavlivka. Heavy artillery hits the Ukrainian lines while suicide drones took out Ukrainian SAM systems located west of Vuhledar. With the SAMs taken out, Russian air force operated freely to disrupt any reinforcements…

[ Svatove Front ] Ukraine launched massive offensive towards Svatove; Heaviest fighting at Kuzemivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 27, 2022

Quick Update from the Svatove Front: Ukrainian forces continues their push towards Svatove as fighting is reported across the entire front – at Kyslivka, Tabaivka, Berestove, Kuzemivka and from the direction of Lozova. The heaviest fighting of them is the fighting at Kuzemivka, where the Russian Ministry of Defense reported up to 500 Ukrainian troops…

[ Kreminna Front ] Russia recaptured Makiivka & Novosadove; fighting at Terny, Yampolivka & Torske

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 27, 2022

Quick Update from the Lyman-Kreminna Front: Russian forces launched a major counter attack against the Ukrainian forces in the Lyman-Kreminna region, and managed to recapture Makiivka and Novosadova. Heavy fighting is now reported at Terny, Yampolivka and Torske, all the settlements along the Zherebets River. Pro-Russia source, Boris Rozhin reported that the Ukrainian launched a…

[ Opinion + Projection ] 3 places Russia could deploy their 300000 troops in Ukraine to win the war

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The mobilization and training phase of the entire grand 300,000 army from the Russian partial-mobilization is about to come to conclusion – and we will soon be seeing the entire 300,000 force deployed in Ukraine within a month. But where would Russia use these troops? How would Russia’s strategy be like should they open a…

[ Donetsk Front + Analysis ] Both sides launch attacks along the frontline; Defense-in-Depth is DEEP

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 24, 2022

Breaking news from the Donetsk Front: Russia continue to push and put pressure on the Ukrainian defense at Marinka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka – something that Russia had been trying months, but to little progress. Ukraine in return, launched their own offensives, in the area of Novomykhailivka, Slavne and Mykilske. However the attack reportedly also had…

[ Svatove Front + Analysis ] Ukrainian forces breakthrough and secured bridgehead at Makiivka

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 23, 2022

Breaking news from the Svatove-Kreminna Front: Ukraine finally captured a bridgehead at Makiivka after struggled to get past the Russian defense line along the Zherebets River. This comes after the clearing up of the bad weathers that had plagued the battlefield for the past few days; disallowing both sides to deploy their UAVs to scout…

[ Kherson Offensive ] Massive Ukrainian attack thwarted after drone strikes on SAMs; Russia counter

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 16, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: According pro-Russian sources, Ukraine launched a major offensive towards the Dudchany-Mylove-Sukhanove line. The attack starts with heavy bombardment from Ukrainian artillery firing from Petropavlivka, with fast moving mobile special forces troops leading the vanguard. They are then followed by mechanized and armor forces, which will take advantage of the…

[ Lyman Front ] Ukrainian forces clashes with Russian forces at Novosadove, Terny and Torske

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 14, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: Ukrainian forces continue their assault on Novosadove and Terny to recapture the settlements along the eastern bank of the Zherebets River. Heavy fighting is reported at the contested town of Torske. Reinforcement reportedly arrived to the front from both sides, while Ukrainian reinforcement and reserves are reported at Lyman.…

[ Kherson Offensive ] Ukraine forces attack in 6 directions; Russia counterattacked at 2 locations

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 14, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: Ukrainian forces continues their assault in the Kherson Offensive against 5 different locations: Kostromka, Ishchenka, Bezvodne, Pyatykhatky and Dudchany. Russian forces reportedly launch their own attack towards Sukhyi Stavok and Nova Kamyanka, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Fighting is also reported at Pravdyne in the Mykolaiv Front with…

Ukraine Fighter Jets vs Drones/Missiles backfiring! – Planes getting shot down by SAMS over Poltava

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 14, 2022

Breaking news from the Poltava: Russia Ministry of Defense reported a shooting down of Ukrainian Su-27 over Poltava region by air defense system is raising concerns of the usage of fighter jets to defend against cruise missiles and suicide drones. This comes after report from Ukrainian Air Force that one of their MiG-29 crashed in…

[ Lyman / Kreminna Front ] Russia forces captured Novolyubivka & Yampolivka; Torske is “grey zone”

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 13, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman / Kreminna Front: Russian forces managed to recapture and secure all of the eastern bank of the Zherebets River, which reportedly includes Novolyubivka and Yampolivka on this front. Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks to recapture lost grounds at Novolyubivka, Terny and Novosadove. The attempts had not been successful as the attack…

[ Kherson Offensive ] Ukraine attack Sukhanove, Pyatykhatky, Borozenske, Ishchenka; Pontoons rebuilt

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 13, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: The Ukrainian Kherson Offensive is still ongoing despite of the enhanced defense line from the Russian stretching from Mala Seidemynukha, to Kostromka, Ishchenka, Pyatykhatky, Sukhanove and ends at either Dudchany or Mylove (depending on sources). Ukrainian forces reestablished new pontoon crossings across the Inhulets River and one of them…

[ Kupyansk Front ] Ukraine “quietly” penetrating into Luhansk towards Svatove in massive pincer

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 12, 2022

Breaking news from the Kupyansk + Svatove Front: Based on the sparse reporting from the Kupyansk Front (predominantly only from Russian Ministry of Defense – which also suggest that the fighting is now mainly fought by Russia regular military), it seemed like the Ukrainians are making more progress than it’s being let on off. Ukrainian…

[ Lyman Front ] Russian counteroffensive towards Krasnyi Liman; captured Terny, Novosadove & Torske!

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 11, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman Front (or Kreminna Front): Russian forces that had been attacking Terny for the past 2 days, finally broke through the stubborn Ukrainian defense and had captured Terny. Apparently, the fighting at Terny reported by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry over the past 2 days was actually a much bigger counteroffensive by…

[ Kupyansk Front ] Ukrainian forces fanning out, attacking 6 different directions at once

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 7, 2022

Breaking news from the Kupyansk Front (formerly known as Oskil Front): Ukrainian forces after regrouping launched a multi-prong offensive across the entire front, hitting 6 different directions/settlements, including Tavilzanka, Vilshana, Pershotravneve, Orlyanske, Stepova Novoselivka, etc… Based on initial assessment, the Ukrainian forces is probably looking to capture Nyzhnia Duvanka as the main objective in this…

[ Strategic Analysis ] Bakhmut-Siversk Front – 7 Oct 2022 – DPA Ukraine War Map Analysis

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 7, 2022

This is a DPA’s exclusive strategic map analysis of the situation over at the Bakhmut and Siversk region, collective called the Eastern Front where Russian forces are making some headways as the Ukrainian forces’ redeployment away from the region is started to make it’s effect felt on the ground – to share the possibilities of…

[ Kherson Offensive ] Ukraine attack from 5 directions! Russia lines held strong; Dudchany contested

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 7, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: Russian new defense line turned out to be effective at holding up the Ukrainian’s lightning offense, as this new line from Kostromka-Bruskynske-Sadok-Pyatykhatky-Dudchany seemed to defend much better than their defense lines before. The information of the full capture of Dudchany seemed to be wrong, as Russian forces reportedly still…

[ Kherson Offensive ] Mass Russian withdrawal to Bruskynske-Mylove; Ukraine recapture 17 settlements

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 5, 2022

Breaking news from the Kherson Front: Russian forces has abandoned the entire Kryvyi Rih Front and Davydiv Brid front in a mass withdrawal to a plausible new line from Bruzkynske to Mylove – allowing them to at least double the number of troops defending every sector due to the reduce contact lines. Ukrainian forces quickly…

[ Svatove Front ] Ukrainian forces captured Borova and at least 7 other undefended settlements

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 4, 2022

Breaking news from the Svatove Front: Ukrainian forces continue to push northward from the successfully concluded Lyman Front, as they quickly captured a series of settlements, including the important town of Borova. Ukrainian forces reportedly advancing on Raihorodka as the Russians quickly prepare the city of Svatove for battle while Luhansk People’s Republic military reinforcement…

[ Eastern Front ] Ukraine launched MASSIVE COUNTER OFFENSIVE across entire Bakhmut & Siversk Fronts

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 4, 2022

Breaking news from the Bakhmut and Siversk Front: Ukrainian forces launched a sudden massive counter offensive across the entire eastern front. Ukrainian attacks are reported all the way north from Spirne, Berestove, Bilohorivka, to the Bakhmut Front: Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, NE of Odradivka, Mykolaivka Druha and Kurdyumivka. Previously reported dubious capture by…

[ Kherson Offensive ] COLLAPSE IMMINENT! Ukraine forces broke thru Russia lines at Kryvyi Rih Front.

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 3, 2022

Breaking news from the Kryvyi Rih Front: Ukrainian forces made a serious push from Petrivka and Osokorivka southwards at the Kryvyi Rih Front and managed to broke through Russian lines after fierce fighting. Ukrainian forces quickly captured Lyubymivka, Khreshchenivka, Shevchenkivka and Zolota Balka, as they routed the Russian forces entrenched in those position. Russia, again,…

[ Lyman Front ] Fall/Liberation of Lyman

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 2, 2022

Breaking news from Lyman Front: Russia Ministry of Defense (or whoever the command is for the forces here) finally ordered a withdrawal from Lyman to Kreminna, after the Ukrainians start to break through Russian lines in the west and south of Lyman City. With the Ukrainian forces having fire control along the entire stretch of…

[ Lyman Front ] Russia reinforcement arrived at Lyman; Ukraine redeploy forces frm Siversk & Soledar

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | October 1, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman Front: Russian long awaited reinforcements has arrived at the Lyman Front and had immediately made an impact by driving the Ukrainian forces that had crossed the river north of Terny back across the river to Ivanivka. Russian counter attacked at Yampil and North of Lyman city, while the Ukrainian continue…

[ Lyman Front ] Ukraine captured and secured Shandryholove & Kolodyazi; Ukr Recon probing Zarichne

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | September 30, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman Front: Russian attempts to hold Shandryholove and Kolodyazi had failed, as the Ukrainian forces captured the 2 settlements north of Lyman City. As soon as Kolodyazi is captured, Ukrainian recon forces are already heading towards the important junction of Zarichne, in which the final resupply route for the Russian had…

[ Davydiv Brid Front ] Russian forces recaptured Kostromka and Bezimenne; New Ukr troops rotated in.

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | September 29, 2022

Breaking news from the Davydiv Brid Front: Russian airforce bombarded the Ukrainian forces in the salient so badly, that the Ukrainian command had to replace the withdrawn forces wholesale with fresh troops. Russian forces taking advantage of the withdrawal, recaptured Kostromka and Bezimenne. Ukrainian artillery bombarded the Russian troops in the new locations in response.…

[ Oskil Front ] BREAK OUT IMMINENT! Ukrainian forces linking up Dvorichna force with Kupyansk force

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | September 28, 2022

Breaking news from the Oskil Front: Ukrainian forces at the Oskil front is starting to expand their bridgehead, as both forces at Dvorichna and Kupyansk started to invade into the southern flanks of respective Russian lines. Dvorichna forces attack along the Oskil River in an attempt to link up with the Ukrainian forces at Kupyansk,…

[ Lyman Front ] MASSIVE RIVER CROSSING by Ukraine; Lyman nearing encirclement; Kreminna threatened!

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | September 28, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman Front: Russian forces succeeded in a limited counterattack to push back the Ukrainian forces in the northern part of the Lyman Front. However the “success” is immediately over cast by the news of massive river crossings across the entire northern part of the Siversk Front into Luhansk region. Dibrova reportedly…

[ Lyman Front ] Ukrainian forces captured Shandryholove; attacking Zelena Dolyna

By Wyatt Mingji Lim | September 26, 2022

Breaking news from the Lyman Front, as Ukrainian forces broke through the thin red line again, as they secured their gains by capturing the important tri-junction town of Shandryholove! With another force hitting Zelena Dolyna, Ukrainian forces is on track to encircle the Russian defenders at Novoselivka and Drobysheve. Full Report: Previous Lyman Front Report:…